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Ah, we’ve arrived. With Army vs Navy being the only Division I college football game this weekend.
College hoops gets to slide into the Saturday limelight.
With a big Saturday slate, here are a few spots and mismatches I’m looking to bet early on.
Situational Spots
Grand Canyon at Liberty (-4 KenPom) @ Liberty Arena (2pm)
Listen, nobody loves this Grand Canyon team more than me. Tyon Grant-Foster is one of the best players in college basketball and they’re still awaiting the return of last year’s WAC Preseason Player of the Year, Javon Blacksher Jr. who suffered a knee injury last January.
However, the Lopes are coming off arguably their biggest win in program history over last year’s runner-up San Diego State. They now have to travel across the country to face a Liberty team that controls the tempo, doesn’t turn the ball over, and can knock down shots. GCU thrives off their ability to create turnovers and get to the free throw line, two categories the Flames should be able to hold their own at.
This is a good spot for Liberty, who’s played their best ball at home this season. KenPom projects the Flames favored by four points, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line open a little tighter. Anything under a possession and I’ll be backing Liberty.
Mismatch Spots
Santa Clara vs New Mexico (-11 KenPom) @ Dollar Loan Arena (5pm)
Let me introduce you to the New Mexico Lobos. Led by, scratch that, I don’t even know who they’re led by anymore. Entering the year it looked like another fun season with Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. at the helm. Now, both have missed extended games with injuries this season and other players continually step up—namely Donovan Dent and JT Tobbin, averaging 17 and 12 ppg respectively.
Santa Clara has been an improved team over the previous two seasons and appears decent once again. However, their best wing scorer, Carlos Marshall Jr., was out last game against Cal with an undisclosed injury, where the Broncos fell by 15 points on the road.
Mashburn has also sat out the previous few games for the Lobos, while both he and Marshall are questionable for Saturday’s game as of now. Santa Clara has the size advantage down low, but New Mexico is superior in virtually every other category. Pending injury news, I like backing New Mexico in a pseudo-home game as a single-digit favorite.
Murray State at Austin Peay (+2 KenPom) @ F&M Bank Arena (7:15pm)
I like Murray State on the road here for a few reasons. First, they’re just the better team. Better strength of schedule, better wins (albeit not many), and should be more competitive in a tougher conference. Coach Corey Gipson is still trying to find his footing in year one at Austin Peay.
Second, the Murray State Racers are due for some positive regression, while Austin Peay could be heading in the wrong direction. According to KenPom’s luck ranking, Murray St. is #310 while the Governors are #180.
The third reason is that Austin Peay really only does one thing well: they force turnovers. They don’t get to the charity stripe and have one of the lowest 2-point attempt rates in college basketball. Meaning that anything easy comes in the form of forced turnovers. Unfortunately for them, the Racers have done a pretty good job of controlling the ball while being able to get to the rim and defend without fouling.
Coming off a loss to Illinois State, I’m curious to see what this market opens at. Anything under a possession favorite and I’m backing Murray State in their short cross-state road trip.
Other Games to Monitor
BYU at Utah
BYU has been a wagon thus far. How will they look in their first true road test in Salt Lake? I lean the Cougars, but have to see where this market opens.
Purdue vs Alabama
Neutral site game in Toronto. I fear Alabama gets hammered in this spot, but it’s unlikely I have a play either way. Probably the best game of the day however.
Wisconsin vs Arizona
The Badgers have looked good recently, beating Marquette at home and then Michigan State on the road. They travel to Tuscon for a tough road test against the top-ranked Wildcats. Could be a Wildcat smash spot, but we’ll need to see how much respect Wisconsin gets in the market.
Drake vs Nevada
The Wolfpack have rolled in the early part of this season, led by Kenan Blackshear. His matchup vs Tucker DeVries is one of the marquee matchups of the day.
My Saturday bets:
- Waiting on spreads to be released. None so far
YTD 22-16 +3.72u
Follow me on Twitter @DrRoddy_ for this weekend's updated picks and hit me up with questions or teams you’d like to see me write about. GL if you tail. Let’s go!
