San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the San Francisco 49ers as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. They are one of the best teams in the NFL and have one of the most talented offenses in the entire league. The question is if there are enough footballs to go around. The 49ers have four players going inside the top 75 picks. The problem is that they were dead last in pass attempts. For all of these guys to pay off at their current prices, the offense will need to be as incredibly efficient as last season. We'll be talking about just how efficient they were last year. It was at levels we've never really seen before.

Of course, there could be another explanation. Maybe Kyle Shanahan is a mythical football creature who can defy the odds. He's already seen as one of the very best offensive minds in the NFL. However, we simply do not see NFL offenses support a top-three running back, two top-15 receivers, and a top-seven tight end. There isn't generally enough volume or enough efficiency to make it possible. That's exactly what happened last season, but can we expect a repeat?

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Fantasy Football Team Previews

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Brock Purdy: QB11, ADP 82

Evaluating Purdy is a struggle because he’s not a runner and has poor passing volume. His passing volume is awful. In 2023, the 49ers finished 32nd in pass attempts and 26th in 2022. So, how is it that he was able to finish as the QB7 (19.2 PPG) last year? Incredible efficiency. Last year, Purdy had a 7.0% touchdown rate and averaged 9.6 yards per attempt. Since 2000, no quarterback has posted a 7.0% touchdown rate and averaged 9.5 yards per attempt while also attempting at least 300 passes. No one. Not until Purdy.

Only five quarterbacks have had a 6.5% touchdown rate in back-to-back seasons. Two of them belong to Aaron Rodgers. The other three are Peyton Manning, Lamar Jackson, and Drew Brees. Notice two names that aren’t listed: Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady. Only Rodgers has ever had back-to-back seasons with a touchdown rate of 7.0% or higher.

Since 2000, only two quarterbacks have had a season with a 9.5 yards per attempt average and at least 300 pass attempts: Purdy and Kurt Warner. Within those parameters, zero quarterbacks have ever had back-to-back seasons with a 9.0 or higher yards per attempt average. There are just two quarterbacks who have had back-to-back seasons with a yards-per-attempt average of over 8.5.

Last year, Purdy attempted 444 passes. Since 2000, the most yards any quarterback has ever thrown on 460 or fewer pass attempts is 3,810. Purdy had 4,280. There have been six quarterbacks since 2000 to throw for more than 30 touchdowns in a season on less than 460 pass attempts.

QB Leaders by YPA [2018-2023]
[min. 600 pass attempts]

1. Brock Purdy (9.2)*
2. Jimmy Garoppolo (8.2)*
t3. Nick Mullens (8.0)*
t3. Deshaun Watson (8.0)
5. Patrick Mahomes (7.9)

*played for Kyle Shanahan's 49ers

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) June 7, 2024

Even if Purdy just “regresses” to a 6.0% touchdown rate and an 8.0 yards per attempt average, both of which would still be considered elite, he’d have finished with roughly five fewer touchdowns and 728 fewer yards. That’s 49.12 fewer fantasy points total and 2.9 less per game.

Last year, the 10th-best touchdown rate was 5.0% and the 10th-best yards per attempt average was 7.4, coincidentally both were held by Josh Allen. If Purdy “regresses” to “just” Josh Allen levels of efficiency, he would have had nine fewer touchdowns and 994 fewer yards. That would be 75.76 fewer total points and 4.45 fewer PPG. That would have taken him from QB7 to QB25.

Fantasy managers need one of two things to be true for Purdy in 2024 -- either their passing volume needs to increase significantly, or they need Purdy to continue to be incredibly efficient. Either way, I’d rather pass on Purdy at his given ADP and target someone like Trevor Lawrence or Jayden Daniels, who can be two to three rounds later.

Verdict: Sell Brock Purdy

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

Christian McCaffrey: RB1, ADP 1

Yes, we’re buying Christian McCaffrey. His worst weekly finish last year was RB22, the only time he did not finish as a top-15 running back. He had 12 top-10 weekly finishes, nine top-five finishes, six top-three finishes, and twice finished as the RB1.

Not counting his first week with San Francisco, when he played just 29% of the snaps, CMC has had 423 carries and converted them into 2,167 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns. He’s also had 146 targets, 117 receptions, 1,004 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns. Over 26 games, he’s averaging 83 rushing yards, 4.5 receptions, 39 receiving yards, and 1.19 touchdowns per game.

Last year, CMC averaged 2.5 more half-PPR PPG than the RB2, 7.3 more PPG than the RB5, 2.5 more PPG than the WR1, and 7.0 more PPG than the WR5. His 22.4 half-PPR PPG average was more than Lamar Jackson’s 21.1 PPG average, and he finished as the QB3. McCaffrey was closer to Josh Allen (24.1), the No. 1 overall fantasy scorer, than the RB2. If there’s any second-guessing about McCaffrey being the first overall pick, stop it.

Verdict: Buy Christian McCaffrey

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

Brandon Aiyuk: WR14, ADP 26
Deebo Samuel Sr.: WR15, ADP 27
Ricky Pearsall: WR72, ADP 172

Aiyuk finished 36th in targets per game last year. Samuel was 38th. Zay Jones and Kendrick Bourne averaged more targets per game than Aiyuk and Samuel. However, despite this, Samuel finished as the WR6 (15.0 half-PPR PPG) and Aiyuk was the WR11 (13.8). You can probably see where I’m going with this, right? Especially after the write-up on Purdy. Look, I get it… Kyle Shanahan is amazing. He’s an amazing play-caller, and his players will overachieve because of it. I agree! But are they all going to overachieve by that much? Purdy and his two receivers have some baked-in regression to their current prices. Who knows, maybe Shanahan is just this good, but still… let me shoot off some wild Aiyuk stats.

Let’s start with Aiyuk. Last year, he caught 71.4% of his targets, had a 13.8 average depth of target (aDot), and averaged 17.9 yards per reception. Let’s drop some of those parameters a bit. From 2018 (when the average depth of target first started being tracked) through 2023, do you know how many receivers caught 67.5% of their passes with a 13.0 aDot and a 17.0 yards per reception average on at least 75 targets? The answer is one -- just Aiyuk.

If we go back to 2000 and look at how many receivers had a 67.5% catch rate and a 17.0 yards per reception average, we add one name to the list -- Jordy Nelson. Alright, let’s take it down to a 65% catch rate (down from Aiyuk’s 71.4% rate) and a 16.5 yards per reception average (down from Aiyuk’s 17.9). How many receivers have done that from 2000-2023 on 75 targets? The answer is only four. Nelson and Aiyuk are the most obvious, along with Stefon Diggs and Will Fuller. Only Aiyuk did it on 100 or more targets. From 2020-2022, Aiyuk’s career average catch rate was 67.4%, and his yards per reception average was 14.6.

Last year, a quarter of Samuel’s fantasy points came via rushing. In 2022, it was right around 30%. We’ve never quite seen a player like Samuel. Sure, guys have done something similar in spurts, but nothing as long-lasting and high-end as Samuel’s. Last year, Samuel finished as a top-24 weekly receiver just three times in games he did not score a rushing touchdown. In 2022, he finished as a top-24 weekly receiver just once without a rushing score. His rushing is paramount to his fantasy success. It’s crucial because, without it, he’s a borderline WR2/3.

Pearsall will not be relevant in 2024. There’s just no way he could be. Not with a healthy CMC, Aiyuk, Samuel, and George Kittle. Every receiver and tight end not included in their Big Three had 75 targets, 46 receptions, and 595 yards. Even if Pearsall gobbled up 100% of that, he’s still fantasy-irrelevant. Pearsall is nothing more than a receiver handcuff if Samuel or Aiyuk were to get hurt. Even then, Kittle’s role would increase, and Pearsall would still be fourth in the pecking order. His price is cheap enough, though.

Despite all that, how do you sell these two receivers? This is arguably the best offense in the NFL with the best play-caller in the NFL. Do I have concerns about some 2024 regression? Yes, I do. Is it enough to keep me from CMC, Aiyuk, or Samuel? No, although if I had to pick one to sell, it would be Samuel just because of how he’s utilized and his age.

In the end, however, despite all of these concerns, I’m buying the talent of these players, the offensive scheme, and the play-caller. However, we can’t buy everyone; if we expect some regression, one of the 49ers’ skilled players has to be a sell, which brings us to tight ends…

Verdict: Buy Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, Fair Price Ricky Pearsall

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

George Kittle: TE7, ADP 71

There were 14 games last season where the CMC, Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle quartet played in at full health. In those 14 games, Kittle scored 132.8 half-PPR PPG, or roughly 9.48 PPG. His expected fantasy half-PPR PPG in those 14 games was 6.8 PPG. Kittle outperformed his expected PPG by 2.6 and 37 points in total. As you can imagine, the other three solidly outperformed their expected half-PPR total and PPG average. The difference, however, is that none of them were a clear fourth on the target hierarchy.

As you can see from the table above, Kittle finished fourth in target share, targets, and receptions. While he did tie for second in receiving touchdowns, it should be noted that Kittle had the lowest red-zone target share out of the four of them. He scored six touchdowns, but his expected touchdowns were just 3.6 because volume drives scoring.

From Weeks 1-17 last season, Kittle’s 9.48 half-PPR PPG average when the San Francisco quartet was healthy would have ranked as the TE8 compared to the TE5, where he ultimately finished. His 6.8 expected half-PPR PPG average would have ranked 20th.

Kittle is the only one of San Francisco’s primary five players whose ADP does not have much, if any, baked-in regression, depending on how you look at it. Samuel finished as the WR6, and he’s being drafted as the WR15. Aiyuk finished as the WR11, and he’s being drafted as the WR14. Purdy finished as the QB7, and he’s being drafted as the QB11. Kittle finished as the TE5 but scored like the TE8 across 14 games when all his teammates were healthy. He is being drafted as the TE7. He’s also the clear fourth option in the passing game. All that makes Kittle an easy sell at cost.

Verdict: Sell George Kittle

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