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Welcome RotoBallers to our salary cap league strategy article targeting pitchers with an average auction value (AAV) of under $10.
In the salary cap draft format, fantasy baseball managers are not bound by the rules and structure of the snake draft. The ability to put your money towards the players you prefer feels liberating. The freedom of roster construction in a salary-cap league comes with the added challenge of being financially responsible. You won't be able to fill your roster with the hyped superstars, but if you bid shrewdly on targets under $10, you'll find that you'll have paved a smooth road to the fantasy baseball championship.
In this article, we will target the pitchers with average auction values of less than $10 that should offer the most value. In this price range, plenty of extremely reliable pitchers with high ceilings will still be on the board. Be sure to check out the article for hitters under $10.
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Shane Bieber (SP, CLE) - $9
It was a relatively difficult 2023 season for Shane Bieber, but the Cleveland ace still had solid results in a down year. While he dealt with injuries, he still managed a 3.80 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.23 WHIP, 20.1% strikeout rate, and 6.4% walk rate through 21 starts.
Of course, the glaring red flag from his 2023 statline is the tepid 20.1% strikeout rate. Relative to the unbelievable 41.1% strikeout rate from his Cy Young-winning 2020 season, a 20.1% strikeout rate felt like enough for fantasy managers to relegate Bieber to the under-$10 category.
However, with a 26.7% strikeout rate in his last eight starts in 2023, widespread fears over a serious decline in Bieber's talent are mostly unwarranted.
A victim of high expectations, the 28-year-old's $9 AAV is fantastic value for a pitcher projected for a sub-4.00 ERA and a recovered strikeout rate in 2024.
Shane Bieber, K'ing the Side in the 4th. pic.twitter.com/sKzyxYrDmd
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 27, 2023
Kenley Jansen (RP, BOS) - $9
Proven relievers will be hard to find in this territory, so Kenley Jansen at $9 is a gift. While he won't be the closer he was in his 20s, Jansen was again productive in fantasy in 2023 with 29 saves in 44 2/3 innings. Projected for another 30 saves in 2024 by ATC projections, Jansen is a straightforwardly easy pick-up at a $9 AAV.
Chris Bassitt (SP, TOR) - $9
Even as he enters his age-35 season, Chris Bassitt should be as reliable as they come in 2024. While he took some time to adjust to his new surroundings in Toronto, 2023 was another solid season for Bassitt. He put up a 3.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 22.5% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate through 200 innings.
Stability is the word that comes to mind with Bassitt, but that doesn't mean he is no longer capable of competing with the best of them on the mound. The 2011 draft pick was one of the best pitchers in the league in the second half of 2023, with a 2.96 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 24.4% strikeout rate in 17 starts.
A true workhorse pitcher, feel confident in his ability to turn in good starts for your fantasy team in 2024.
Gavin Williams (SP, CLE) - $7
With news that Gavin Williams' injury is day-to-day, there should be little holding you back from picking up the standout 24-year-old at a $7 value. The former top prospect was fantastic in his rookie year, turning in a 3.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 23.5% strikeout rate through 16 starts.
While his 10.7% walk rate, 4.05 FIP, and 4.21 xERA indicate that he was a bit lucky to come away with a 3.29 ERA, he's not someone to doubt going into 2024. Standing at 6-feet-6-inches, his enviable physical tools and arsenal of a big-time four-seamer (12.3% SwStr% on 767 pitches), impressive slider (33.7 CSW% on 306 pitches), and solid curveball (.157 batting average against on 235 pitches), and sparingly used changeup are a rock-solid foundation for the young pitcher.
Going into his second year with the Cleveland pitching lab, it's reasonable to expect improvements to his peripherals and expected stats. While he comes with some question marks, the 24-year-old's ace potential makes him a steal at just $7.
Gavin Williams, 3Ks in the 4th.
8Ks thru 4. pic.twitter.com/lPcxJgJ4dM
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 12, 2023
Cristopher Sanchez (SP, PHI) - $5
Cristopher Sanchez was a name that very few were expecting to see at the top of the statistical leaderboards in the second half of the 2023 season. The 27-year-old surprisingly stuck in the Phillies rotation with a 3.44 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 24.2% strikeout rate, and 4% walk rate through 18 starts.
Low expectations may have been fair, as Sanchez was never scouted as a top pitcher and turned in a low 82 Stuff+ grade in 2023 (compared to a league-average 100 Stuff+ grade). However, his command and pitch usage made him one of the top pitchers since his recall on June 17, with his 3.06 xFIP ranking seventh in the league among qualifying pitchers.
Sanchez worked with a three-pitch arsenal: a sinker, changeup, and slider. The sinker and changeup mix was his key to success, with a zone-pounding sinker (72.7% strike rate and 33% CSW rate on 675 pitches) working well with a knee-buckling changeup (23.1% SwStr% on 477 pitches).
While you may want to believe he'll be figured out by MLB hitters, that changeup/sinker mix became its most potent in September, where a further increase in changeup usage (43.7% sinker usage to 40.5% changeup usage) led to a 2.48 xFIP, 28.1% strikeout rate, 4.2% walk rate, and 1.07 WHIP through 24 1/3 innings.
Considering his breakout potential, $5 for Cristopher Sanchez could end up looking like a heist by the end of the season.
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