RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 190
CURRENT ADP: ~210 overall
ANALYSIS: The shine of his potential upside has dimmed considerably due to another season of not putting up great numbers after being a top-hitting prospect in the Rockies organization. We all get very excited for the Rockies' top hitters, so it's easy to overdraft them a bit early on in their careers.
When we look at the last two seasons together:
| Year | PA | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG |
| 2021 | 596 | 80 | 23 | 86 | 6 | .254 | .331 | .449 |
| 2022 | 597 | 67 | 20 | 67 | 7 | .246 | .327 | .414 |
We don't see a ton of difference here. The slash lines are pretty similar and so was the HR and SB output. We see a pretty big decline in runs and RBI. The Rockies scored 41 fewer runs in 2022 as compared to 2021, which took away some opportunity for McMahon. The lineup is still shy of a good one, but it's not unreasonable to think they can improve in 2023 with a healthy Kris Bryant and some young players coming up like Ezequiel Tovar.
The main reasons I see in favor of taking the discount on McMahon:
- The third base position is incredibly weak after the first handful of hitters.
- McMahon posted a strong 10.5% Brl% with a non-awful 26.5% K% in 2022. He raised his Brl/PA to a career-best 6.53%.
- He still plays for the Rockies.
He's awful on the road, and that's not likely to change. That keeps the ceiling down, but McMahon is still quite a good fantasy player half the time - and the barrel rate shows that a 25+ homer season is very much possible. I'm perfectly happy to take McMahon as a backup third baseman on my fantasy teams this year - and thanks for the discount!
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