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Antonio Losada dives into RB broken tackles data to find the running back position's best draft sleepers for 2020 fantasy football leagues.
Plunging into the world of football analytics is without question a great way to find fantasy sleepers for the coming season. Especially in the case of running backs, considering overall elusiveness is arguably the best way to determine how good (or bad) a player's performance was. And that's what this is all about.
I will be looking at advanced rushing data from Pro-Football-Reference.com, and on top of that crossing those numbers with 2020 projections (via PFF) and ADP values from FFPC drafts up to this date in order to find the best sleepers poised to have big seasons this year given their 2019 numbers. All of it will be focused on how many missed tackles these players forced, how often they broke tackles relative to volume, and their tendency to accumulate yardage after contact.
Average draft position will play a role as well, considering many of these players can be had at a deep late-round bargain. Let's get to it!
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2020 Missed Tackles Forced Sleepers
Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccanneers
Jones finds himself in a similar situation to what Damien Williams had in Kansas City (before he opted out of the 2020 season). The Bucs have the GOAT-quarterback in tow after signing Tom Brady this spring and they also drafted a rookie running-back this past draft in Ke'Shawn Vaughn, which would keep Jones' touches limited. Last season Jones rushed the ball 172 times for 724 yards and six touchdowns, averaging 4.21 YPC.
Looking at broken tackles data, though, Jones excelled while on the field avoiding being brought down and racking up yards. Jones broke 23 tackles all year long (1.43 per game) and got 415 yards after contact, the 17th-most in the NFL. That doesn't sound too good until you consider Jones' volume compared to the rest of RBs. Jones' average of 2.4 yards after contact per attempt ranked 13th and he was the only rusher (along with Alvin Kamara) to cross the 400-yards-after-contact barrier on fewer than 200 rushing attempts through the year.
Only four players were able to finish the 2019 season with fewer rushing attempts per broken tackle: Kamara, Williams, and Aaron Jones. Ronald Jones ranked fourth with 7.5 rushing attempts and is currently the RB33 in ADP and 104.3 overall player getting off draft boards. Even battling Vaughn for touches, Jones should be a great target for you on every fantasy league given his efficiency.
Devin Singletary, Buffalo Bills
Although the sample size is not the largest, I have to admit that I fell in love with Singletary last season. The rookie played in just 12 games and rushed the ball only 151 times for the Bills, but he was a beast at it. In 151 carries he reached 775 yards (two touchdowns). Although he ranked 29th in rushing attempts, Singletary finished with the 24th-highest yardage and his 5.13 YPC ranked third only behind Raheem Mostert's 5.64 and Gus Edwards' 5.35 (both of them logged fewer rushing attempts, though).
Although Singletary had more yardage gained before contact (413 yards) than after it (362), his numbers were pretty balanced through the season with just 51 yards of difference. The most encouraging thing about Singletary's game, though, was his raw broken tackles number: 20. For someone on relatively low volume, that was an incredible amount of BTs. Only 13 other rushers had 20+ broken tackles in 2019 yet all of them had 171+ rushing attempts, which is to say at least 20 more opportunities of breaking tackles.
Translated to a per-attempt basis, Singletary only needed 7.6 attempts per broken tackle, which ranked him as the fifth-most efficient tackle-breaker in the league. Although Singletary's ADP has caught up lately (he's the RB23 and 68.4 overall), he's still a cheap asset acquirable for not an overly high price and with all of Buffalo's backfield for him to exploit in 2020.
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
This is more a flier, I know, but we're discussing sleepers here, aren't we? Cook played 14 games last season with Mattison being his backup and appearing in 13 games himself. In those games, he finished with 100 combined rushing attempts for 462 yards and a single touchdown, averaging 4.62 YAC. Yes, that per-carry yardage was higher than Cook's 4.54-mark.
Mattison only broke 11 tackles through the year, but those 11 BTs came in just 100 carries and he was able to finish the season as the eight-best player at it with an average of 9.1 attempts per broken tackle, virtually one per game.
While it is still unclear how much of a presence Mattison will have next season, you can be sure he will exploit his chances out on the field. Mattison could very well be one of the best handcuffs at the running back position, yet he's only the RB37 off draft boards these days with an ADP of 120.8 overall.
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