RADIO
Plunging into the world of football analytics is without question a great way to find fantasy sleepers for the coming season. Especially in the case of running backs, considering overall elusiveness is arguably the best way to determine how good (or bad) a player's performance was. And that's what this is all about.
I will be looking at advanced rushing data from Pro-Football-Reference.com, and on top of that crossing those numbers with 2020 projections (via PFF) and ADP values from FFPC drafts up to this date in order to find the most probable busts that could ruin your team given their 2019 numbers. All of it will be focused on how many missed tackles these players forced, how often they broke tackles relative to volume, and their tendency to accumulate yardage after contact.
Average draft position will play a role as well, considering many of these players are getting off draft boards way earlier than their stats suggest the spots they should be picked at. Let's get to it!
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2020 Missed Tackles Forced Busts
Melvin Gordon III, Denver Broncos
If you remember, Gordon decided to go on an extended period of vacation last summer when he held out and missed four of the Chargers 16 games in 2019. That opened the door to a certain Austin Ekeler, limited Gordon's production upon returning and through the year, and ultimately saw the rusher not re-signing with LA and moving to the Broncos as a free agent this season. Probably not what he had in mind when he started all of this circus a year ago...
In his 12 games and 162 rushing attempts, Gordon finished with 612 yards on the ground and somehow got to score eight touchdowns, kinda hard to believe and a little out of place and over-productive. The problem with Gordon, though, were his underlying rushing numbers. He only averaged 3.78 YPC compared to Ekeler's 4.22, had more rushing yards before contact (312) than after contact (300), and could only break eight tackles all season long. Those numbers, simply put, didn't cut it.
Gordon needed up to 20.3 rushing attempts per broken tackle, a paltry 38th-best mark among RBs with at least 100 carries in 2019, or better said, the 8th-worst mark of those in that group. Moving from LA to Denver doesn't mean he'll have it easier: the Broncos also have a stud in Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman is still around. Given his ADP of RB16 and 48.9 overall player I have serious doubts Gordon will reach those expectations, so I'd advise fading him.
Kenyan Drake, Arizona Cardinals
Drake had a pretty great home-stretch last season after being traded to the Cardinals, which allowed him to score himself a new contract with the Arizona-based franchise this summer. Through 14 games and in 170 rushing attempts, Drake racked up 817 yards (21st-most) and eight touchdowns with an average of 4.81 YPC. None of those numbers are bad, in fact Drake was able to finish the year with the ninth-highest YPC average in the NFL, but I had to look a little bit to unveil the truth.
Drake rushed for 479 yards before being contacted by defenders compared to just 338 after contact. That's a staggering 141-yard difference, which came down to an average of 0.8 yards before contact more than after per carry. That mark was the seventh-lowest in the NFL among RBs with 100+ rushing attempts, making Drake a true before-contact rusher without much prowess after getting touched by the defense.
In his 14 games, Drake could only break 12 tackles, fewer than one per game, and needed all of 14.2 rushing attempts per broken tackle. Those 14.2 Att/BT ranked as just the 25th-best mark in the league, which wasn't any good and doubled the average of the leaders of that category last season. Drake, nonetheless, is currently the RB9 in drafts with an ADP of 25.5. Call me crazy but that seems an absolute overpay these days given his 2019 numbers.
Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions
It is hard to truly assess Johnson's sleeper/bust chances entering 2020 given his situation and also his 2019 stats. Last year, Johnson played only 8 games but even with that he rushed the ball 113 times for 403 yards and three touchdowns. His YPC were a horrific 3.57, fourth-worst among RBs with 100+ rushing attempts in the NFL. This season Detroit has drafted D'Andre Swift and it is not too wild to think of him taking on the no. 1 RB role from the get-go, which would limit Johnson's upside.
Assuming that's the case, though, and given that he missed time last season, he might be in for a similar workload on a 16-game schedule in 2020 as he did in an 8-game one last year. If that's the case and he stays on the same efficiency numbers, I'm sorry but things then don't look any good for Johnson. Johnson broke exactly one tackle per game (8 over the year) but needed all of 14.1 rushing attempts per broken tackle, one of the worst marks of the league for a supposedly leading rusher.
While Johnson's current ADP isn't overly high (119.4 overall, RB43) he still looks like a little bit of a reach, and even as a late flier he carries high risk with him, both if he ends as the RB1 or RB2 of the Lions in 2020.
Leonard Fournette, Jacksonville Jaguars
I know throwing Fournette under the bus here might sound a little too harsh, but consider this my spicy take of the day. Fournette was a beast last season all things, considered, not going to lie there. He rushed the rock 265 times for 1,152 yards on the ground and only lacked on the TD-department with three scores over the year.
Fournette logged way more yards after contact (792) than before it (360), but he could only break 16 tackles. The problem with those numbers is that he got them through massive volume. His 265 carries were the seventh-most in the NFL, yet his 16 broken tackles ranked 18th. He needed as many as 17.9 (!) rushing attempts to break a tackle on average, which means he barely broke one per game and he truly had to be used on and on to do so.
That mark of 17.9 attempts per BT was the 15th-worst among RBs with 100+ rushing attempts, and it is not that Jacksonville's OL was so good that they prevented defenders from reaching Fournette precisely... Fournette is currently the RB17 off draft boards with an ADP of 36.9 overall. He will get the volume once more in a shaky Jaguars offense, and that might be enough for him to rack up fantasy points. If you're looking for efficient, more affordable rushers, though, look away from Fournette.
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