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We enter the fantasy playoffs yearly with more questions than answers at the running back position. For example, what do we do with Zach Charbonnet if Kenneth Walker III returns this week? What about Isaac Guerendo, who exited late in last Sunday's contest with a possible midfoot sprain? With an opportunity to advance, could Israel Abanikanda be the hero we never knew we needed?
Fantasy managers can breathe a sigh of relief this week with the return of Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Brian Robinson Jr., who were all absent last week due to the bye week. However, they are just some of the backs who are poised to produce here in Week 15. Of note, Panthers running back Jonathon Brooks re-tore his ACL on Sunday and must go through the recovery process all over again.
Win, and you advance. Lose, and your season comes to an end this week. Let RotoBaller help with those problematic lineup decisions with our Week 15 running back starts and sits.
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Week 15 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints
The last time we saw Brian Robinson Jr. in action was back in Week 13 when he churned out 103 yards on the ground and 17 fantasy points on 16 rushing attempts against the Tennessee Titans.
Quietly, Robinson has put together an impressive fantasy season despite missing some time. In 10 games this season, the Commanders back has produced double-digit fantasy production on eight occasions, averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game.
MAMA THERE GOES THAT MAN!!
BRIAN ROBINSON JR. 40-YARD TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/koE9JO7q0Y
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 1, 2024
Robinson and the Commanders head to the Bayou for a date with the New Orleans Saints this week. This Saints defense has allowed 1,787 total yards to running backs this season, allowing opposing backs to reach paydirt on 15 separate occasions.
New Orleans has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points this season to the position, and over the last four weeks, it has been allowing 23.73 fantasy points per game.
With Austin Ekeler once again sidelined, look for Robinson to play a larger part in the offense. In Week 13, Robinson accounted for just 47% of the backfield snaps as he worked himself back into the lineup. With a favorable matchup on the docket, look for Robinson to add to his 640 rushing yards, eight touchdowns, and 4.6 yards per carry average.
David Montgomery - RB, Detroit Lions vs. Buffalo Bills
When you play on the top offense in the league and you face a defense that has allowed 1,339 rushing yards, a league-high 579 receiving yards to backs, and 27.22 fantasy points per game, you're going to find yourself front and center in many fantasy lineups this week as David Montgomery.
Kyren Williams may have only had a pair of receptions for 10 yards, but what Williams did on the ground against the Bills is something Montgomery is more than capable of repeating. Last week, Williams ran the ball 29 times for 87 yards and a pair of touchdowns. I doubt Montgomery will get that volume, but his efficiency this season should allow for the most production with his opportunities.
Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are the only running back tandem that has each produced more than 1,000 yards from scrimmage this season. Montgomery is responsible for 1,081 total yards this season, while his backfield mate has produced 1,328 yards thus far. That's not great news for a Buffalo Bills team that just had 44 points hung on them a week ago.
Only the aforementioned Williams has more red-zone carries this season than Montgomery's 49, which he has turned in 12 touchdowns. Of Montgomery's 214.2 fantasy points this season, 92.5 have come via red-zone opportunities. If I were a betting man, I'd bet on more red-zone opportunities again this week for Montgomery.
#DetroitPeopleMovers paving the way for an opening-drive score @montgomerdavid 🙌#GBvsDET | 📺 @NFLonPrime pic.twitter.com/e53xQ27shq
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 6, 2024
Rhamondre Stevenson- RB, New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals
Are you looking for a riskier play this week that offers the potential to reward managers? Look no further than Rhamondre Stevenson, who faces a Cardinals front that has allowed 12 total touchdowns this season to opposing backs. Arizona has allowed 1,362 rushing yards in 14 contests and has surrendered 509 receiving yards on 66 receptions this season.
The risk comes from the fact that Arizona has played the run well over the last four weeks, limiting running backs to just 188 yards on 50 attempts while allowing just one touchdown, which was a pass. Stevenson has been the ultimate running back roulette player, as his seven total touchdowns are the 19th most among the running back position.
New England has very little going for it offensively, but with Drake Maye under center, it has been much better. Since Week 7, when Stevenson returned to the lineup with Maye, Stevenson has produced 87.7 fantasy points and is the RB20 over that period.
Week 15 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Travis Etienne Jr. - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets
Touches and opportunities matter. In Week 14, Tank Bigsby led the way for this Jaguars backfield. Bigsby would finish with 19 touches compared to Travis Etienne Jr.'s nine. Before last week's 82% of the rushing attempts, not to mention the only carry inside the 10-yard line, Bigsby had yet to see a rate greater than 65% in any contest where Etienne was healthy and available.
With a real-life Toilet Bowl matchup playing out before our eyes this week, it won't be a shock if Bigsby continues to out-touch Etienne as the Jaguars continue to evaluate their roster.
The NFL is a "what have you done for me lately" business and the truth is Etienne hasn't done much. This season, the Jaguars' former 25th overall selection has just one game in which he totaled more than 60 yards. Etienne had hit that milestone 12 times in each of the previous two seasons.
Travis Etienne games with over 60 total yards:
2022: 12
2023: 12
2024: 1— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 5, 2024
New York held De'Von Achane to 24 rushing yards on 14 carries last week, so unless Etienne gets work in the passing game, it's really hard to imagine a scenario in which fantasy managers can trust inserting him into their lineups this week.
D'Andre Swift - RB, Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Since Shane Waldron's dismissal, we have seen a shift in offensive philosophy. D'Andre Swift has now been held to less than 10 fantasy points in three consecutive contests, averaging 35.7 rushing yards and 2.8 yards per carry per game. During the season, Swift had an astonishing nine games in which he was held to less than 4.0 yards per carry, which is less than ideal.
Look, the volume is there. Despite the lack of production in the last three games, Swift has a 90% running back rush share out of this Bears backfield. I can't trust that heading into my fantasy playoffs.
D'Andre Swift has averaged a running back rush share of 90% over his last three games. He hasn't scored double-digit PPR points in any of those contests.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) December 9, 2024
Over the last four weeks, the Minnesota Vikings have allowed just 195 rushing yards on 63 attempts. That works out to 3.14 yards per carry. Swift would need 30-plus carries to reach double-digit fantasy numbers this week. I wouldn't count on that. The Vikings have been stout against opposing backs, limiting them to 17.97 fantasy points per game, the fourth-fewest; on the flip side, they have allowed a league-worst 40.82 fantasy points to the wide receiver position.
With that disparity in fantasy production, it's safe to assume that Chicago will likely attack through the air rather than the ground if it hopes to stay in this game.
Nick Chubb - RB, Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The only way I am wrong about this selection is if Jerry Jeudy and/or David Njoku are tackled on the 1-yard line multiple times.
We are here, in Week 15, and Nick Chubb is averaging 3.1 yards per carry this season. In the seven games Chubb has played since his return, it took him 20 attempts to hit his season-high of 59 rushing yards.
This is Jameis Winston's world, and we are all just living in it. Winston has attempted 40 or more passes in all but one game in six starts this season. Expect everything to be the same this week.
Kansas City has allowed just 776 rushing yards on 226 rushing attempts, around 3.4 yards per carry. Fantasy points have been difficult for backs to come by as the Chiefs have allowed a league-low 14.86 fantasy points against this season, turning many game scripts one-dimensional. With the Browns' commitment to the pass, look for that to be the case again here in Week 15.
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