RADIO
For many, the fantasy playoffs are on the line this week. Win, and you are in; lose, and it's time to face reality and plan for next year.
The problem facing many managers with their seasons on the line is six teams are on a bye this week. Back in August, Week 14 byes didn't seem to mean much; however, the thought of replacing Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, Brian Robinson Jr., and Rhamondre Stevenson is a daunting task. You can't even replace them with a Broncos back, as Denver is also on bye this week.
Difficult decisions will need to be made again this week, and we are here to help with this week's RotoBaller starts and sits at the running back position.
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Week 14 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Tony Pollard - RB, Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
At this point, I should pay Tony Pollard an appearance fee based on how often I talk about him. Look no further if you want a running back with upside and a good matchup this week.
Pollard is averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game this season and is currently the RB21 with 163 PPR points. If not for that fumble last week, Pollard would have posted 10 or more fantasy points in seven of the previous nine contests.
In a game that quickly got out of hand, Pollard finished with 35 rushing yards on eight attempts while adding 33 yards on four receptions. Even with Tyjae Spears back in the backfield, Pollard accounted for 92% of the opportunities out of the Titans backfield last week. In the four games that Pollard had the backfield without Spears, Pollard was the RB3, averaging 100.5 rushing yards per game.
Pollard's receiving upside puts him in line for a potential top-12 finish this week. The Jaguars are allowing the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs this season, having allowed 556 yards and four touchdowns. Only the Carolina Panthers have allowed more fantasy points per game this season than the 28.41 that Jacksonville is surrendering. Over the last four weeks, that number has jumped to a league-high 33.77 as Jacksonville has allowed 623 total yards and five touchdowns.
Kyren Williams - RB, Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills
I wasn't worried about Kyren Williams' fumbles until I was. Blake Corum played a season-high 32% of the snaps, as HC Sean McVay sent a clear message to Williams early on in this one. However, after that, it was back to Williams, who, after the Rams' second drive, accounted for 14 of 17 remaining carries out of the backfield and churned that into a touchdown and 101 rushing yards.
Everyone wants Corum to be a thing. Truth is, that is unlikely to happen, as Williams was the only back to catch a pass and received both the Rams' carries inside the 10-yard line on Sunday.
This Sunday, look for plenty of opportunities, as Williams faces a Buffalo Bills team that has allowed 1,218 rushing yards and six rushing scores to backs this season. They have also surrendered 569 receiving yards and five touchdowns to backs on 72 receptions. Add that up, and that's 27.23 fantasy points per game.
RBs with 12+ touchdowns this season:
Derrick Henry
Joe Mixon
Saquon BarkleyAnd now, Kyren Williams. pic.twitter.com/dcF6EkthkO
— StatMuse Football (@statmusefb) December 1, 2024
In the snow, Jordan Mason and Christian McCaffrey combined for 131 rushing yards on 20 attempts in a contest that seemingly faded the 49ers run game out of the game script.
Isaac Guerendo - RB, San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears
Speaking of those 49ers, we have a good news/bad news type of situation in the Bay Area. In that game against the Bills, McCaffrey suffered a potentially season-ending PCL injury. The typical recovery period is three to six weeks, and that's not even the end of the bad news. Jordan Mason was also placed on IR on Monday with an ankle injury. This means Isaac Guerendo is the next man up in San Francisco.
In the loss to the Bills, Mason would average six yards per carry, finishing with 78 rushing yards, while McCaffrey was also productive by tallying 53 yards on the ground on his seven carries and averaging an impressive 7.6 yards per carry.
Now, the good news is that it doesn't matter who runs the ball for the 49ers, as fantasy points are coming. In the two games in which Guerendo carried the ball at least 10 times, he would rush for 99 and 85 yards, respectively, averaging 7.67 yards per carry.
This week, Mason faces a Bears team that gave up 88 yards on the ground to David Montgomery and another 87 rushing yards to Jahmyr Gibbs on Thanksgiving. The Bears didn't bring any stuffing to that dinner.
Over the last four weeks, Chicago has allowed opposing backs to average 27.53 fantasy points per game and has allowed 701 total yards to the position and four touchdowns.
Week 14 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Chuba Hubbard - RB, Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles
The Carolina Panthers have been a much better team offensively in recent weeks. Chuba Hubbard is averaging 15 fantasy points per game this season, and his 179.5 fantasy points in 12 games have him currently ranked as the RB13 in fantasy.
After finishing as a top-12 back in Weeks 9 through 12, Hubbard was RB57 after being held to 3.6 yards per carry on 12 attempts against the Buccaneers in last week's overtime loss. If not for that fumble in extra time, the Panthers may have gone on to win that contest.
It doesn't get any easier this week, as the Philadelphia Eagles are holding opposing backs to 15.43 fantasy points per game, the fourth-fewest over the last four weeks. In those four weeks, backs are averaging 4.0 yards per carry, but game scripts have held them to just 279 rushing yards and a pair of scores.
Last week, Philadelphia held Derrick Henry, the NFL's second-leading rusher, to 82 yards on 19 attempts. Unfortunately for Hubbard's managers, the likelihood of him seeing 19 carries is less than 5 percent.
Kenneth Walker III - RB, Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Kenneth Walker III has averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game during the season. The problem is that fantasy football is a "what have you done for me lately" business, and Walker hasn't averaged more than 14 fantasy points in a game since Week 7.
Last week against the Jets, a team allowing more than 20 fantasy points per game to the running back position, Walker was held to 6.6 fantasy points. Walker would finish that game with 49 rushing yards on 19 carries, hauling in two of his three targets for negative yardage, and then he had to watch as Zach Charbonnet scored from inside the 10-yard line.
Sorry Kenneth Walker managers 😔
Zach Charbonnet get the TD pic.twitter.com/dfIZ6xEqia
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 1, 2024
This week, Walker's opponent has been playing better recently, especially when defending opposing backs. Arizona is ranked seventh over the last four weeks, allowing just 17.50 fantasy points per game and 3.55 yards per carry on the ground.
James Conner - RB, Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Let's stick with this Seahawks/Cardinals matchup in the desert. As good as the Cardinals have been in recent weeks, Seattle has been even better. Seattle allows 14.28 fantasy points per game, the second-fewest, and is limiting backs to 3.57 yards per attempt.
The New York Jets are probably not the best barometer against which to measure fantasy success, but Seattle held Breece Hall to 60 yards on the ground and forced him to put the ball on the turf, recovering it once. Hall was also shut out of the Jets passing game, giving way to Braelon Allen.
James Conner had a respectable outing against the top-ranked Vikings fantasy run defense, putting up 10 fantasy points against a defense that had allowed just 10.58 fantasy points to running backs over the last four weeks and just 16.77 to backs on the season, the third-fewest.
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