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Running backs have been the biggest storyline this offseason, especially with the contract issues of Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs. It seems the days of RBs receiving big-money, long-term NFL deals are over, which has surprisingly been reflected in the fantasy world as well.
Between 2016 and 2018, David Johnson and Todd Gurley II (twice) led the running back position with over 23 fantasy points per game. Obviously, these results didn't repeat after signing their next contracts. Over the last three years, no back has surpassed the 23 PPG mark in half-PPR, with the exception of Christian McCaffrey. In 2019, McCaffrey averaged a wild 25.8 fantasy points per game and continues to be an elite back in 2023.
As a result, I think this may be a big year for running backs in both the NFL and fantasy football. This season could become the turning point for backs in the future, as many need to show that they are worth more than fourth-string receiver money. It looks like the 2023 season has the elite RBs to make that statement. From rookies like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs to veterans like CMC and Austin Ekeler, I believe we'll have a back that surpasses that 23 PPG mark. For more of my fantasy content, check out my video player profiles on TikTok @FiresideFantasy_FF.
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15. Najee Harris, PIT
Najee Harris is the epitome of workload production on a mediocre offense. Despite running behind a Kenny Pickett-led offense, as well as battling injuries, Harris still managed to score 10 touchdowns in 2022. You have to think that both the Steelers' production and offensive line take a jump this season, making him one of the rare workhorsebacks with weekly TD upside.
What moves him down in my rankings is the surge of 2022 undrafted free agent Jaylen Warren. Warren has received praise from the coaches all off-season and cemented his explosiveness with a 62-yard TD run in the second week of pre-season. Although I think he will see an increase in work, the coaches have stated that Harris is still their main back. As a result, I'll buy into any dip in Harris' value, but I'll be concerned if Warren manages to steal the third down role early in the season.
14. Breece Hall, NYJ
There is a lot to love about Breece Hall. After exploding onto the scene in 2022 as a rookie, he flashed as both an efficient pass catcher and runner. Unfortunately, his rookie season ended early after he tore his ACL in Week 7. Hall possesses all the traits to be a top-five option this year. However, I am cautious about his return from injury. It may take a few weeks for Hall to find his groove and carry the full workload. After that, he could be a league winner for fantasy teams.
Recently, Dalvin Cook signed with the Jets. Although Hall is efficient enough to produce on limited touches, this adds to his risk for 2023. It's hard to tell what role Cook will step into, but considering this team appeared to have decent depth at the position, they probably have a role in mind for him. If Cook becomes this team's goal-line back, Hall may be a boom-bust weekly RB-two.
13. Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)
It's official, Dalvin Cook is off the team and Alexander Mattison is to the moon. After years of living in Cook's shadow, Mattison is now the guy, but will he find the same success? Over the last three years, we have only seen five games where Mattison has played more than 50% of snaps. What's impressive is that he hit 20 fantasy points in three of those five games.
There are enough stats out there that leave me questioning if he can continue this for a whole season (for example, he averaged two yards after contact over the last three years) but there is reason to be excited. Shockingly his ADP has remained relatively reasonable, but he's one of those guys you either have to be out or calling your shot for 2023.
12. Miles Sanders, CAR
I think I am planting my flag on Sanders this year. To be honest, I desperately tried to move him higher but I can't justify ranking him over the next few names. After having a career year with the Eagles, Miles Sanders found himself in the best free-agent landing spot.
The Panthers are a completely new team this year and went out of their way to secure the veteran RB. Carolina has been very positive about Sanders' ability and they are projected to use him in the passing game. This Panthers team found a lot of success running the ball over the last few weeks of the 2022 season. If D'Onta Foreman can rush for 110+ yards five times on this team, Sanders could potentially do even better.
11. Josh Jacobs, LV
From breaking fantasy in 2022 to being ranked as my RB11? What happened?! Honestly, Las Vegas happened. I feel like the fantasy community is overlooking the dumpster fire that this organization is. Although the Raiders were bad last year when Josh Jacobs was great, it's hard to see him having another career year on a Jimmy Garoppolo-led offense. This team will be playing from behind frequently. Although we saw Jacobs' pass-catching prowess last season, Garoppolo's backs had fewer than 40 targets in 2021.
Additionally, there has been a long history of backs who received the largest workload, not finding success the season after. This list includes David Johnson, Demarco Murray, and Doug Martin, all of whom missed multiple games the following season. I am not projecting injury, but this historical drop-off, paired with the team situation has me worried for 2023.
10. Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Joe Mixon is currently being investigated for aggravated menacing, where he shot at a kid whow as waving a Nerf gun. Although we have no idea if the league will discipline the veteran, or how long the legal process will take, it's unnerving knowing this is going on in the background. As a result, he has recently dropped in my rankings.
If he can sort out his off-field issues, we will have at least one more year of Mixon as a Bengal. For fantasy purposes, this is the best situation for him as he is the clear leadback on one of the league's best offenses. This is an even better situation with an improved line than it was in 2021 when he was the RB-three and last year when he was the RB12. Mixon should be a solid RB-one with his only competition being Chase Brown, who was in the fifth round, Trayveon Williams potentially replacing Samaje Perine's role, as well as a pass-catching specialist by day, and Captain America by night Chris Evans.
9. Aaron Jones, GB
Aaron Jones is the perfect best friend for a new QB. Not only was he a Walter Payton Man of The Year candidate last season, but his pass-catching and ability to break big plays will help Jordan Love. Although this could potentially be his last year with the Packers, Jones is one of the few veteran leaders on this offense. He is always a threat to find the end zone, and his efficiency should make him a solid RB-one with a week-winning upside.
8. Jonathan Taylor, IND
The fact that the Colts allowed Taylor to request a trade shocked the fantasy community. However, it makes a lot of sense. Look at Austin Ekeler earlier this offseason, the team let him attack the market, most likely knowing that he would not find a better option out there. I expect this to happen with Taylor and that he will be a Colt in 2023.
A year has never felt so far away. After his RB1 season, Jonathan Taylor's 2o22 campaign was a disaster riddled with injuries and bad team play. The Colts are looking to make a huge bounceback and Anthony Richardson can provide the spark the team needs.
Unfortunately for Taylor, Richardson's rushing ability may impact his fantasy production. To make matters worse, rookie QBs don't run efficient offenses historically. Believe it or not, that's not all that stands in Taylor's way. Taylor currently has some minor injuries. Although he is expected to return to practice shortly, it's very muddy waters for Taylor. Taylor is an elite talent, but I think the situation is slightly terrifying for 2023.
7. Derrick Henry, TEN
There's something about Derrick Henry that is terrifying this season. Although he has fallen in a lot of rankings, he still has an ADP of RB-eight. I don't believe the cliff will hit Henry this season, however, I believe it's definitely on the horizon. Henry's limited pass-catching on what could be one of the worst offenses in the league is a tough pill to swallow at RB-eight. Plus, the team has been hyping up third-round pick Tyjae Spears. Although it has not been the case in the past, I think this team might split carries as a way to prolong Henry's career. As a result, I am out on him this season and view him more as a low-end RB-one than his former elite caliber.
6. Tony Pollard, DAL
Tony Pollard has become the new fantasy darling this offseason. As soon as Ezekiel Elliott was released, it was full steam ahead for the explosive back. Although the Cowboys have hyped up Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn, Pollard is going to be the lead guy. If they do sign another notable back this offseason, I will move him down to around RB12.
My concern about them bringing in another back is that even with Zeke losing a step last season while battling injuries, Pollard only surpassed 60% of the team's snaps twice. As a result, I'm worried his perceived workload is not as locked-in as many believe.
5. Saquon Barkley, NYG
From his talent to his athleticism to his crucial role on the Giants' offense, Saquon Barkley has it all. This New York offense never seems to be the most appealing, but I still have their RB in the top five, their QB in the top eight, and their tight end in the top three. Barkley is as steady as it comes at running back, and I think this offense may be underrated for 2023.
Barkley is the perfect RB with his physicality and fantasy week-winning upside thanks to his game-breaking ability. Outside of injury, there is no way Barkley won't be an RB1 on this up-and-coming offense.
4. Nick Chubb, CLE
It's time for Nick Chubb to take over this position. After years of being debated as the best pure runner in the game, he finally gets his shot to command the Browns' backfield alone. Everything about his game says he should be a top-five guy this year. However, my only concern is the Cleveland QB taking rushing touchdowns away from him, as well as Chubb's lack of involvement in the passing game.
3. Austin Ekeler, LAC
Speaking of players who always come through for fantasy, Austin Ekeler is the reigning RB1. Now that he is entering a contract year with extra performance incentives, I expect the Chargers to use him even more than in the previous two seasons. I am projecting a big year for this entire offense with the addition of fantasy star offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. This only helps Ekeler's touchdown upside and overall production. He is a clear top-five draft pick in half-PPR scoring.
2. Christian McCaffrey, SF
Christian McCaffrey is incredible. Despite switching teams midway through last season, he finished as the RB2. Although his usage may be less consistent than in previous seasons, he will still be near the top of the league in touches. Plus, with Brock Purdy confirmed as the starter, check-downs will bolster CMC's elite fantasy appeal. His efficiency could also increase by being on a better team with an electric offense. Despite Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson being stars, what CMC does for fantasy can not be argued if you decide to take him with pick 1.01.
1. Bijan Robinson, ATL
I don't remember a more consistent drum beat for any rookie in fantasy, and I'm buying it. I am all-in on Bijan Robinson lighting the fantasy world on fire in 2023. His offense, his O-line, his coach – it's all set up for him to have a massive year. The most notable rookie running backs to make a significant fantasy impact are Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott, who both finished second at the position.
Even if you don't think the top RB is Robinson, it's time for an RB to once again break fantasy. From 2016 to 2019, the RB-one averaged 23+ fantasy points per game. Since then, no back has averaged more than 22. I predict Robinson to be the one to snap the streak and set the position up for a bright future. There's no shame in being all-in on this elite running back talent.
Thank you for reading my running back rankings! Check out my other positional rankings that will be released this month.
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