RADIO
Now that the 2018 NFL Draft and the bulk of free agent signings have concluded, fantasy owners have a somewhat clearer picture of how each team's offense is going to look this upcoming season. Still, many roster positions are won and lost in training camp and the preseason, especially when it comes to the running back position.
In order to help prepare for the fast approaching start of the regular season, here are some updated running back depth chart projections! A couple of notes before we get started:
- The depth charts assume full health for all players currently on each team's roster;
- The depth charts are meant to project to Week 1 of the 2018 regular season and not necessarily beyond, though some breakout candidates will be discussed;
- Average draft positions will be taken from 10-team leagues on fantasyfootballcalculator.com.
AFC WEST
Late Round Value: Devontae Booker
While I fully expect former Oregan Duck Royce Freeman to take over the starting job sooner rather than later (as many people predict based on how early he is being drafted), third-year rusher Devontae Booker has a leg up on him heading into training camp. In short, Booker has developed a "good command" of Denver's offensive playbook all the while showing quite well in one of the most important areas for a ball-carrier to stay on the field: pass protection. With newly acquired quarterback Case Keenum having a tendency to throw dump off passes to running backs in offseason practices, fantasy owners should be able to get a solid floor out of Booker in PPR formats with his 13th round ADP.
AFC NORTH
Don't Forget the Name: Kenneth Dixon
I won't pretend that third-year back Kenneth Dixon is a significant threat to eat into Alex Collins' workload, but fantasy owners could certainly do worse than to take him with the last pick in their drafts. The Baltimore Ravens were clearly intent on making Dixon their workhorse back in 2016 and had he not suffered a season-ending injury last season, it was entirely possible that he would have been talked about as a top-20 option in fantasy circles. However, with Collins grading out as Pro Football Focus' fourth-best running back last season, it will take an injury or a stark emergence in training camp for Dixon to earn a serviceable workload. A late round fantasy pick with solid, highly dependent upside is what owners will get when they take him in drafts.
AFC SOUTH
A Non-Sexy, League-Winning Pick: Lamar Miller
Through the first eight weeks of the 2017 season with quarterback Deshaun Watson under center, the Houston Texans offense averaged nearly 31 points and 138 rushing yards per game. Although I had previously written rave reviews of sophomore rusher D'Onta Foreman and an upcoming breakout campaign, it appears as if he is unlikely to be fully ready to go by Week 1. Until we receive positive news about Foreman's recovery from a torn Achilles, Lamar Miller stands to be the beneficiary of a Texans team that will be back to full health on both sides of the ball. Owners can snag Miller in the fifth round of their drafts.
AFC EAST
Full Blown Committee: New England Patriots
Many are projecting New England Patriots first round pick Sony Michel to step in and fill lead back duties immediately, but the odds are against him making that kind of impact in his rookie season. While it certainly is enticing to envision a 2016 LeGarrette Blount-esque 18 rushing touchdown year from Michel, word out of Patriots camp is that Rex Burkhead and James White have been handling the "majority of the first-team reps." Don't let the draft capital spent to take Michel mislead you, as this backfield should resemble a committee more often than not throughout the regular season.
NFC WEST
Slow the Hype Train: Rashaad Penny
The hype for rookie running backs might be the story-line this fantasy offseason and Rashaad Penny is well situated in that narrative. The Seattle Seahawks first round selection of Penny, who led the FBS with 2,248 rushing yards in 2017, would suggest a renewed commitment to the ground game and a potential workhorse for fantasy purposes. However, it is growing increasingly difficult to ignore the reports about Chris Carson excelling this offseason. Carson averaged a respectable 4.2 yards per carry before going down in Week 4 of last season and shouldn't fade away like many are expecting him to. I wouldn't be surprised to see him open 2018 as the team's starter and return fantasy significant fantasy value at his 13th round price.
NFC NORTH
A Training Camp Emergence: Kerryon Johnson
I promise that I'm not low on every rookie running back entering the league this season. While the Detroit Lions backfield looks crowded, former Auburn Tiger Kerryon Johnson is clearly the youngest and most talented running back on their roster. Johnson's skill set as a running back perfectly fits the Lions outside zone run scheme in an offense desperately seeking to take pressure off of quarterback Matthew Stafford. He is already receiving praise as a three-down back and has a great shot at earning a marked share of the Lions rushing attempts early on in 2018.
NFC SOUTH
Handcuffs with Standalone Value: Tevin Coleman and C.J. Anderson
Although drafting a lead back's handcuff isn't advisable in every situation, certain handcuffs that have standalone value can be worth a pick to fill out your roster. Tevin Coleman and C.J. Anderson both deserve flex spot consideration depending on your league format, with Coleman lending himself to PPR and Anderson to standard scoring. The Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers both look to have plenty of offensive pieces and should have their fair share of red zone opportunities.
NFC EAST
Largest Range of Outcomes: Jay Ajayi
Fantasy owners who drafted running back Jay Ajayi last season were largely disappointed given his overall lack of usage and productivity with Miami. Now that he finds himself on a Philadelphia Eagles squad with the best offensive line in the league according to Pro Football Focus, it would seem that Ajayi is truly ready to shine as a lead back. However, head coach Doug Pederson has shown a preference to utilizing a committee approach in his backfields and Ajayi topped 34 snaps just once last season with the team. Could Ajayi bounce back to form in spectacular fashion or disappoint owners once again? Either outcome is entirely possible.
More 2018 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis
