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We're already through 1/3 of the NFL season and the fantasy landscape is starting to really take shape at this point. This, of course, can change on a dime, as we've seen injuries pile up like no other season in recent memory, but it's about that time when we realize who the real contenders and pretenders are.
Running back is always one of the harder positions to analyze and predict in fantasy due to injuries and the constantly changing backfield situations with new players emerging weekly.
Here we'll break down a few of those situations and help provide some more clarity to fantasy managers ahead of Week 7.
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New York Giants
Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been dominant without Devin Singletary. Does this continue when Singletary returns?
Devin Singletary was looking like a great late-round pickup through three games, sitting at the RB17 (against an ADP of RB30) with an average of over 17 opportunities per game.
Singletary wasn't very efficient (just 3.9 YPC) but it was clear that the Giants were committed to getting him the ball. He then suffered a groin injury which has caused him to miss the past two weeks, which led to rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. taking over as the lead back and showcasing his skills in a big way.
Tracy has played almost 75% of the snaps in this time span and received even more opportunities than Singletary on a per-game basis (22/game). He's put up 179 yards on the ground with two touchdowns, adding 58 yards on eight receptions.
Tracy has looked dynamic when he's been on the field, something this Giants team has severely lacked, with Malik Nabers also sidelined for two games. Does that mean Tracy has stolen the job completely?
Singletary has been limited in practice all week but it's been reported that he will return this Sunday against Philly. Because of the emergence of Tracy, it's very unlikely that the former Texan will return to the level of workload he was seeing at the beginning of the season.
Tracy has proven that he is the more explosive and effective player and has definitely earned at least a sizeable portion of the opportunity pie. Brian Daboll agrees as well, stating today that Tracy will still receive "plenty of playing time," despite the return of their lead running back.
Think of this as a Rachaad White/Bucky Irving split to start the year moving forward. Singletary may get the slight edge in touches, but it also probably does not warrant enough volume for a dependable fantasy start. Tracy should remain the better play on a week-to-week basis.
- 19.7 Fantasy Points Week 6
- 17 Rushes, 50 Yards, 1 TD
- 6 Catches, 57 Yards20+ opportunities in both games Devin Singletary missed.
Earned a split-backfield moving forward.
5.0+ Yards/Carry as lead RB compared to 3.9 for Singletary.pic.twitter.com/poIkcgEKrj
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) October 15, 2024
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker both put up big numbers last week. What happens now that Rachaad White is back in the mix?
With Rachaad White (foot) inactive last week, Bucky Irving was in line for a big day as the unquestioned starter. He had been eating into White's playing time all season with much more efficient play. Irving produced to the tune of RB11, but what we did not expect was for his backup, Sean Tucker, to finish as the overall RB1 on the week.
It's quite rare that we see a team finish with two top-11 running backs in the same week but that is exactly what we got last Sunday.
Both Tucker and Irving absolutely gashed the New Orleans Saints defense for a combined 217 yards on 28 attempts (7.8 YPC) and two touchdowns, adding five receptions for 80 yards and another score through the air. Does that change the hierarchy of this backfield moving forward?
White practiced in a limited fashion on Thursday and has a shot to play against Baltimore this weekend, but that does not mean the backfield will simply return to a split situation between White and Irving.
Yesterday, Todd Bowles stated that all of these backs will get playing time moving forward, specifying that a "hot hand" approach will be used. This further muddies the waters of an already tough fantasy backfield situation.
Even before the injury, White was not producing much for fantasy managers, and now, with the emergence of Tucker, his value decreases even more. The viability of White falls into the "wait-and-see" category for fantasy football.
If White, Irving, and Tucker are all healthy, starting any of them is not recommended unless the matchup is phenomenal, and this week, it is quite the opposite with the Baltimore Ravens and their No. 1 ranked rush defense coming to town.
Out of these three players, though, Irving should be the top fantasy option on a weekly basis based on his production through six games. The opportunities have increased nearly every week for the rookie out of Oregon.
Rachaad White managers: https://t.co/oWCueimEQJ pic.twitter.com/G5RJuM5BBT
— Sleeper (@SleeperHQ) October 17, 2024
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylen Warren returned last week, but Najee Harris still got the bulk of the work. What can we expect moving forward?
It's been a rough start to the year for Warren, to say the least. The 25-year-old running back burst onto the scene last year as the overall RB 22 in PPR scoring, adding an explosive dimension to this Steelers offense that Najee Harris simply could not provide.
Unfortunately, Warren started this season hampered by a hamstring injury but was still able to make it through the first two games. He then suffered a knee injury in Week 3 vs. the Chargers that kept him out the next two weeks.
Warren returned this past Sunday against the Raiders but only saw 37% of snaps, taking six carries and turning them into a measly seven yards. He also caught three passes but was only able to muster 11 yards through the air.
Meanwhile, Najee produced his best game of the season with 106 yards and a score on 14 attempts. Harris has not been the most effective back, ranking 40th in YPC, but he's been OK for fantasy purposes, finishing as a top-30 back in four of six weeks.
Warren's low snap count is likely due to the coaching staff easing him back from two tough injuries he's had to nurse to start the year. That number will increase, and while Harris will still get the majority of the rushing attempts, his value will assuredly go down as Warren ramps back up.
The Steelers also just made the switch to Russell Wilson at quarterback, who historically loves throwing to the running back position, which is an area of strength for Warren. This should lead to a lot more opportunities in the coming weeks if he can stay healthy. He's a great stash-and-see for now.
It's unlikely either player will ever be a lineup lock this season, but selling "high" on Najee after the big performance in Las Vegas is the best move here. Pittsburgh also has one of the toughest schedules for running backs for the rest of the season...
23. Despite the return of Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris saw his highest fantasy score (20.2) of the year.
However, his 58.3% backfield carry share was a season-low, as were his 11.5 weighted opportunities.
Sell if you can (good luck).
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) October 14, 2024
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