Injury Spin - Five Running Backs to Avoid

September 4, 2018

Inside Injuries discusses five running backs (RB) they are wary of in 2018 fantasy football drafts, based on several factors including injury histories and overall upside.

The running back position is one of the most crucial to draft correctly in fantasy football, as it can make or break your roster early on.

Inside Injuries predicts the impact of injuries on player performance by using data analytics, medical expertise and statistical modeling. You can read all about them and the great work they do on Twitter @InsideInjuries. Today's article provides that injury spin and looks at injury histories to help solidify some draft day decisions.

Some of these players may feel like more obvious candidates to avoid in fantasy football drafts - but let's not forget that every winning fantasy team starts with owning fantasy workhorses, drafting studs and avoiding potential duds. Picking the right player in the early and middle rounds is just as important as avoiding the riskier picks as well. These are the players you shouldn’t take the risk on.

Five Risky Running Backs to Avoid

Sony Michel, New England Patriots

The last time the Patriots drafted a running back in the first round was 2006, when they selected Laurence Maroney. Michel has ample talent to be a featured three-down running back for the Patriots, with terrific acceleration, speed and vision in the running game, and solid pass-catching skills. However, he was part of a running back committee during his University of Georgia years, and he will likely remain one for the Patriots, who typically favor a committee approach and deploy their running backs in talent-specific roles. If Michel becomes part of a committee, his overall fantasy value is capped. This is especially troubling for a Patriots RB since head coach Bill Belichick is unpredictable and often makes baffling personnel choices on a game by game basis.

Another troubling issue is Michel’s injury history. Back in high school, Michel suffered a torn ACL. During 2014 and 2015 while at Georgia, he broke a shoulder blade, sprained his ankle twice, and fractured his forearm. As recently as 2017, a knee strain and a sprained ankle sidelined Michel. While none of these injuries are serious on their own, their collective history creates doubt about Michel’s ability to stay healthy.

Michel’s athletic record is also speckled with ball protection problems. He played a total of 47 games during four years at the University of Georgia and recorded 12 fumbles over the span. Coach Belichick doesn’t take fumbles lightly, and he won’t hesitate to bench Michel or any other Patriots player who cannot protect the football. If you add together the fumbling, the injury history and the fact that the Patriots’ running back corps is already quite crowded, it’s difficult to recommend Michel for fantasy use during his rookie season. Michel’s Health Performance Factor will be at least slightly influenced by his injury history, and it is very likely that his Overall Risk of Injury will be greater than 20 percent (which is a concerning level). Fantasy owners should be looking to maximize value and minimize risk at their draft; drafting Michel would constitute a failure for both of those objectives.

Kerryon Johnson, Detroit Lions

Kerryon Johnson comes with a long list of injuries that date back to high school. When Johnson was a high school sophomore, he tore the labrum in his shoulder and wore a brace so that he could continue to play with injury. While this shows that Johnson was pretty tough as a teen, the choice to play might not have been the best course of action; Johnson suffered multiple shoulder subluxations and eventually required surgery to repair the labrum. He also broke his hand and severely sprained his ankle during those high school years.

Johnson needed a second shoulder surgery during his freshman year at Auburn, and he had a sprained ankle as a sophomore. As a senior, he had hamstring, shoulder and rib injuries, and again, he chose to play through the injuries. In fact, Auburn offensive coordinator called Johnson, “the toughest guy he’d ever been around.” While all that toughness suggests that Johnson exhibits a certain strength of character, the injuries are worrisome and could point towards a problem staying healthy that both his NFL coaches and his fantasy owners should be concerned about.

The Lions’ running back corps is put together much like the Patriots’ committee. They have Johnson for first and second down duty, Theo Riddick to cover passing and third downs, and they signed LeGarrette Brown to handle short yardage and goal line work. That is likely the way they will begin the season, but some analysts believe that Johnson could be good enough to influence the coaching staff to make changes.

Fantasy owners cannot rely on speculation like that; they need to act on whatever intelligence is at hand by draft day. Therefore, Inside Injuries recommends against drafting Johnson, especially at his current ADP (86.3). His injury history will drive his Overall Injury Risk upward, perhaps as high as 30 percent (which is very high). In addition, Johnson’s Health Performance Factor will likely drop to Below Average with Johnson’s very first NFL injury.

Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons

The entire Atlanta Falcons offense regressed in 2017; Freeman was no exception. His yards per carry dropped from 4.8 in 2016 to 4.4 in 2018, he saw roughly one-third fewer red zone opportunities, and he committed four fumbles. In addition, RB Tevin Coleman’s role became more clearly defined and he produced the same number of touchdowns (8) as Freeman, but he got them with 40 fewer touches.

However, the most pertinent argument for avoiding Freeman this season is his health, or lack thereof. Freeman suffered significant sprains to both his PCL and MCL, and he played through the injuries. He opted to treat the injuries conservatively and did not have surgery to address the injury over the winter. While he participated in OTAs this spring, he admitted that he was not 100 percent healthy and had some difficulty cutting when he ran.

Inside Injuries’ algorithm calculates that Freeman should be close to fully healthy by the beginning of the season with at least an Above Average Health Performance Factor. However, he will almost certainly be at least an Elevated Risk for further injury; enough so that we recommend against drafting Freeman this season. His knee injuries could easily crop up again and he’s at high risk for additional leg problems and further injury.

LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills

There is little doubt you should avoid LeSean McCoy this season. Let me count the reasons. First, he is entering his age 30 season, the sounding of the first death knell for virtually every running back in NFL history. Second, although he played 16 games in 2017, that was the first time he’s done so since 2014, and only the fourth time in his nine-year career. Third, his production suffered a major decline in 2017. He scored just six rushing touchdowns despite getting 287 touches, the most he’s gotten since 2014 and his highest total touches since joining the Bills.

The fourth and most compelling reason to avoid McCoy is injury. He injured his knee in Week 13 and his ankle in Week 17 and played both injuries through the end of the season and into the playoffs. McCoy has a very long history of lower body injuries, which makes him vulnerable to further injury and a High Injury Risk. So, despite his legendary ability to play through pain and a Peak Health Performance Factor, we cannot recommend drafting McCoy unless he falls to you as a late round pick.

It’s also worth noting that the Bills will enter this season with a new quarterback replacing Tyrod Taylor and an entirely new offensive line. The learning curve for all those new players will impact McCoy’s effectiveness, especially during the early weeks of the season. However, there is an additional road block to consider. McCoy has the specter of suspension looming over his head. He’s been accused of domestic violence by a former girlfriend. The NFL is conducting their investigation into the allegation, and a suspension is a definite possibility. If McCoy is found culpable, he could be suspended for at least six games and possibly more. That risk combined with his injury and production issues, and all the new players on offense, make McCoy one hot potato you want to avoid.

Jay Ajayi, Philadelphia Eagles

There’s been some buzz emanating from the Eagles’ training camp saying that Ajayi will be used heavily in both the rushing and passing attacks. The problem with buzz is that it’s often just noise, or coach-speak, or idle speculation that you can’t rely on. In Ajayi’s case, we believe that it’s the latter; idle speculation best left for your opponents to believe in. Last year about halfway through the season, the Dolphins traded Ajayi to the Eagles. Over the remaining seven regular season games, Ajayi only got 80 total touches (70 carries and 10 receptions from 14 targets) in the Eagles’ crowded backfield. Despite the limited play, Ajayi acquitted himself with an average of 5.8 yards per carry.

LeGarrette Blount is gone, which leaves Ajayi as the only running back on the team with a north to south approach to his game. Thus, we have the main reason the buzz might be credible. However, head coach Doug Pederson is a big proponent of a committee approach for the running back position. He prefers to allocate certain plays with certain backs depending on their skill set. So, even though the Eagles lack another “bruiser” type of running back, Corey Clement could easily take a good portion of the first and second down touches in a split with Ajayi, with Darren Sproles remaining in a third down/passing play role.

In addition to the questionable playing time issue, Ajayi has a long history of injuries during his short career. He’s missed 10 regular season games in the three seasons he’s been in the NFL, and he has yet to play a full season. Last year alone he dealt with concussions during the preseason, several minor knee sprains, as well as elbow and ankle injuries. He will enter this season fully healthy and at his Peak Health Performance Factor with a Low Overall Injury Risk. However, Ajayi clearly seems “prone” to injury, and that combined with a crowded backfield makes Ajayi a risky player to draft because of his relatively high draft cost/ADP. Of course, if he falls to you during the middle or later rounds of your draft, he could provide you with excellent value. So, he does become more valuable as drafts progress.

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