RADIO
For those of you who have been loyally supporting Breaking $100, my very first article for RotoBaller, thank you! Your support has been rewarded with a slew of additional articles heading your way each week. This article is going to take a look at showdown slates, round matchups, and potential outright/T20 adds after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range, who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership. Adding finishing positions to the equation makes it even more fun.
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Finishing Position Points vs Ownership
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top 5, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par. In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Weather Watch
Doesn't look like the there will be much of a weather edge this Sunday, with wind looking like no more than a breeze all day, picking up by two or three miles in the afternoon, which should impact the back nine of the final groups.
Round 4 Power Rankings
These power rankings are using KFT and PGA stats, so they are there as a guide, but should not be taken as gospel. Tee times are going to be the power rankings for us, as the guys we are targeting are close enough to the top of the leaderboard to be lowed, yet one of the highest scorers of the day. Below are the color codes for each color of the players name.
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
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The Chalk Squad
These golfers should be the most owned tomorrow based off of their position on the leaderboard entering round 4. Russell Henley is probably going to come in at 60%+ ownership. He enters R4 with a SIX shot lead and can win this event shooting 69 tomorrow. We have seen him get nervy on a Sunday with a big lead, so we are going to swim against the Henley current one more time this week (it has hurt us so far).
$10,000: Hovland
$9,000: Nobody.
$8,000: Detry
$7,000: Nobody.
$6,000: Nobody.
The Pivot People
Nobody inside the top 10. A slate breaker will be found in one of these names. Robby Shelton and Co. are only 5 shots outside of T3. If the two leaders have a rough round, they are right back in it, potentially getting a few extra holes in better weather. All of these players will be in my player pool.
$10,000: Collin Morikawa
$9,000: Maverick McNealy, Taylor Montgomery
$8,000: Nobody.
$7,000: Dean Burmester, Lee Hodges, Davis Riley, J.J. Spaun
$6,000: Nobody.
The Leverage Lads
Sprinkling one or two of these guys into our lineups especially at low salary may be the way we want to attack these players. All of these golfers will be considered for my 20 entry player pool as they are well outside of the top-10.
Good luck and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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