Round 4 PGA DFS Showdown Slate Picks - 2025 Genesis Invitational

Normally held at Riviera Country Club, this week's Genesis Invitational has been a staple on the PGA Tour, long before Tiger Woods became the host. However, the Tour had to call an audible for its host site after the fires that swept through the L.A. area in January and thus moved this year's edition to Torrey Pines South Course. The famed property that has brought golf fans timeless moments like Tiger's 2008 U.S. Open victory looks poised to give us another thriller tomorrow.

As has been the case at many championships held here throughout the years, the past three days have brought the cream to the top of this leaderboard. Many of the PGA Tour's best players are within striking distance of the lead: Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, and Tony Finau, just to name a few. However, the slight gap between the top three and everyone else needs to shrink before truly bringing everyone back into the fold. Given how the leaders heading into Saturday struggled to finish their rounds, some type of collapse tomorrow is completely possible.

Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.

Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times

After a wet start to this event, things have been beautiful for the last two rounds. Conditions will be similar on Sunday, with mild temperatures later in the day and reduced winds than is normally found at Torrey Pines.

The earliest groups will get the short end of the stick, having to do their early work in colder temps, but considering how the South Course has chewed up half of the field each day, I probably won't worry too much about these guys for lineups anyway.

Round 4 Strategy

The mindset for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. A great starting point is to take guys with a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds.

Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.

$10,000+

Favorite Play: It was a rough day on the greens Saturday for Rory McIlroy, as the current world No. 3 lost -3.87 strokes, putting en route to a +2 over par, 74. This comes after a stellar -5 under par round on Friday, where he gained +2.42 strokes in the same metric.

That is the unfortunate dealings with a streaky putter like McIlroy, but the rest of his game seems to be in similar form to what we saw in his win at Pebble a couple of weeks ago.

He is attacking the South Course exactly how you'd expect him to: bomb and gouge, as he leads the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.45) and 14th in strokes gained around the green (+0.58).

I look for the 35-year-old to throw caution to the wind a bit tomorrow, which could make or break a lineup, but producing a putting line that poor again is unlikely and his performance everywhere else since the wild weather day has been consistent.

Other Options: Scottie Scheffler

$9,000+

Favorite Play: From a limit damage perspective, Tommy Fleetwood has been one of the more successful players this week. Not counting the wild first round that only saw 13 players break par, Fleetwood has only made four bogeys in the two rounds since then, ranking fifth in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.30) and 13th in strokes gained tee to green (+1.40).

The 34-year-old isn't likely to catch fire enough to chase down the lead without some help, but he presents a strong chance to produce positive production on a very difficult track.

"Feathered Cut?"… "Knuckleball?"…

Just two of the ELEVEN shots @TommyFleetwood1 has on command with TP5x pix.

Watch the full video of him talking through each shot: https://t.co/1bV8GJJlB3 pic.twitter.com/OExJEg6iDz

— TaylorMade Golf (@TaylorMadeGolf) March 6, 2024

Other Options: Ludvig Aberg, Patrick Cantlay

$8,000+

Favorite Play: Though multiple guys in this range are flirting with the lead, Keegan Bradley gives me the most comfortable feeling. He hasn't finished under par in any of the first three rounds but has shot back-to-back 72s the past two days. Making birdies has been difficult for the current U.S. Ryder Cup Captain, as he's only lost shots on three holes in his last 36.

Putting has been his biggest issue, as is usually the case at Torrey Pines throughout his career. Still, ranking fifth in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.30) and 14th in strokes gained tee to green (+1.23) has to count for something. Even if he finds a way to break even on the greens tomorrow, it could mean big things for a Showdown lineup if everything else stays solid.

Other Options: Denny McCarthy

$7,000+

Favorite Play: The distance that Maverick McNealy added to his game this offseason is allowing him to flourish at places we would have never considered him before. That couldn't be more evident this week, as he has battled back from a first-round +3 over par, 75, to a T8 position heading into tomorrow.

The 29-year-old ranks second in the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.42) and eighth in strokes gained putting (+1.25). Bad mojo with the driver on Saturday diminished his strokes gained off the tee metrics, but he gained strokes in the first two rounds.

Maverick McNealy flew himself to Torrey Pines this week. ✈️

[Insert Top Gun puns] pic.twitter.com/ymuIK3ZlnO

— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) February 13, 2025

Other Options: Sam Stevens, Daniel Berger, Patrick Rodgers

$6,000+

Favorite Play: At first glance, Nicolas Echavarria is a surprising name on this leaderboard, given his 295.6 driving distance and overall strokes gained ball-striking metrics. However, diving deeper into the numbers reveals so much more supporting evidence.

It's important to note that the metrics don't necessarily tell the whole story in this case because what the Columbian golfer loses in distance, he makes up for in accuracy and a scorching-hot putter.

He ranks 39th on the PGA Tour this season in driving accuracy (63.64%), 60th in GIR Percentage (71.24%), and 14th in strokes gained putting (+0.722). Over the last three days at Torrey Pines, the 30-year-old ranks third in the field in driving accuracy (71.4%), 15th in GIR Percentage (68.5%), and 12th in strokes gained putting (+0.72). The numbers speak for themselves.

Other Options: Michael Kim, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Rickie Fowler

Showdown Optimizer

The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.

Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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