RADIO
The 2024 season ends tomorrow at the new version of East Lake Golf Club. The year's final event has transpired like many thought it would given Scottie Scheffler's two-shot lead to start the week. He has extended that to five as he tries to hold off a charging Collin Morikawa.
Players are having no trouble scoring this week as sub-70 rounds have been constant, and strokes gained around the green have proven to be as important as approach play, which isn't usually the norm. For everything Andrew Green has done to the beloved property, things certainly seem more getable than in previous years. That will hopefully translate to more dramatic finishes in the years to come, however, this iteration is seeing the world's best golfer do what he's done all year; dominate. Nonetheless, there is one final day to scratch that DFS itch in tomorrow's concluding round for us to sweat over, so let's get into it.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but, roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Aside from the muggy feel of Atlanta, GA conditions couldn't be more perfect to wrap up the season. With everyone posting low numbers at the newly redesigned East Lake, there isn't much advantage of early or late times. The most important task will be finishing before the forecasted storms later in the day.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: This range doesn't get more simple than this. It's Scottie Scheffler's time to get the East Lake monkey off his back, and given how well he's played through three rounds, it's the obvious choice.
He's second in the field in strokes gained putting (+1.37) and third in strokes gained tee to green (+1.81). The problem will be taking enough chances elsewhere to get to his $12,400 price tag. If it's possible, it's a must-do.
Scottie. Scheffler. One of a kind golfer! pic.twitter.com/RjErr7Xqsr
— TrackingScheffler (@SchefflerLegion) August 31, 2024
Other Options: Collin Morikawa
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Sam Burns is waxing the field in strokes gained on approach (+1.57), and so far, that has made all the difference. A costly double bogey in Saturday's third round kept him having the day's second-lowest round.
Even with questionable putting, he is managing to do enough from tee to green, as the 28-year-old is ranked fourth in that strokes gained metric, to suggest a round even lower than -3 or -4 under tomorrow is a real possibility.
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Wyndham Clark is the only name in this range that feels remotely worthy of consideration. He ranks fifth in the field for strokes gained on approach(+0.82) and sixth in strokes gained putting (+0.81). However, to get to the leaders at the top of the board, sacrifices must be made, and this feels like the right area to make them if need be.
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Sahith Theegala got a horrible break in his two-shot penalty in Saturday's round. Having the composure to take it on the chin as he did and go on to shoot a back-nine score of 30 is as gutsy of a performance as you'll ever see. Regardless of what comes tomorrow, I am an even bigger fan than I was before.
As for tomorrow's round, the 26-year-old has all the tools to throw another low round out there. Aside from a measly +0.10 strokes gained off the tee, he is nearly outperforming everyone else in the field in all the other strokes gained metrics.
“Your intuition as a golfer is very rarely wrong.”
Sahith Theegala reflects on his self-reported two-stroke penalty this afternoon. https://t.co/vfnGhCvEOU pic.twitter.com/InprR9GOc4
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 31, 2024
Other Options: Sungjae Im, Shane Lowry
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Sepp Straka needs more consistency from other parts of his game, but ranking third in the field in strokes gained on approach is nothing to scoff at. With two double bogeys on the card over his last 36 holes, it's clear why he's struggled to move up the leaderboard given the staggered start of nine shots back of the lead on Thursday.
The change in grass types from the huge redesign is probably the most to blame for his struggling putter, which had been much more of a strength in his past two appearances. Nevertheless, he should make a reliable piece if the usually consistent play off the tee returns, especially for those trying to raise the capital enough to take one of the guys at the top of the board.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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