RADIO
The penultimate tournament of the PGA Tour Playoffs is almost over with Keegan Bradley holding a one-stroke lead over Australian golf legend, Adam Scott. It has been an exciting tournament with guys either trying to make it into East Lake for next week's Tour Championship or trying to keep their place. And what better place to decide it than the Mile High City?
The longest course in PGA Tour history at 8,130 yards has been an excellent test for the world's best players. It is proving to be an advantageous setup for every type of game. Most players in the top 10 on the leaderboard have gotten there with drastically different skill sets. Sure, approach play is the leading attribute, but plenty of guys are getting it done from different areas, making selecting guys for Sunday's showdown lineup a much broader strategy than most weeks.
Showdown, unlike typical golf DFS that spans the entire tournament, is a contest that focuses on each round as an individual event. Finding guys performing well on approach is king, but roster decisions that give you ownership leverage from taking riskier players on the board that haven't played their best but present a high likelihood of a bounce-back round is also important. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The wind from today's third round will be slightly less on Sunday, but it's worth noting that things will get more dicey as the day goes on; especially as course conditions continue to firm up. The lowest rounds have come from the early morning rounds all week and tomorrow should be no different. The best strategy is finding a couple of "diamonds in the rough" to start the day off right.
Round 4 Strategy
The mindset to have for final-round showdowns is not to pull any punches. Taking guys who have a knack for hammering down the gas pedal on Sunday and have at least shown flashes of form over the first three rounds is a great starting point.
Remember that ownership levels will continuously drop the closer you get to the morning's first tee time, so finding the guys who will bounce back is paramount to winning big.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: If there was ever going to be a time to get Scottie Scheffler at less than 30% ownership, this is probably it, as the World No. 1 has undoubtedly been off this week. Maybe it's the fact that playing in this tournament means absolutely nothing for his FedEx Cup positioning (barring a Xander Schauffele win), or perhaps it's just plainly an off week. Nonetheless, he sits in a tie for 35th and starts his fourth round at 10:25 a.m.
Even with all the frustration he's shown this week, he's still the undisputed best player in the world and one has to think a solid round is still in play tomorrow given everything he's done this season. If you can get to the hefty price tag of $12,200, his 67.75 final round stroke average is all the justification needed to take the chance.
Other Options: Rory McIlroy
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Just as he did in the Olympics, Wyndham Clark started the week flat and has come alive in Rounds 2 and 3 to creep inside the top five going into tomorrow's final round. He ranks second in the field in strokes gained off the tee (+1.24) and 14th in strokes gained putting (+0.68).
His 35th ranking in strokes gained on approach is somewhat skewed due to the poor first round, as he has been inside the top 20 in the two rounds since. While being five shots back of the lead isn't insurmountable, at a demanding test like Castle Pines, he'll likely need some help from the leaders to have a realistic chance. Even still, another solid round tomorrow for DFS purposes should be expected.
Bringing the hometown crowd to their feet 👏@Wyndham_Clark eagles the par-5 17th to move to 3 back @BMWChamps. pic.twitter.com/q6by2MF77d
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) August 24, 2024
Other Options: Ludvig Aberg, Adam Scott
$8,000+
Favorite Play: It's hard to argue with what Alex Noren has put on display through three rounds. He is inside the top 20 in all strokes gained metrics, most notably leading the field in strokes gained putting (+1.53) and eighth in strokes gained tee to green (+1.06).
He hasn't given the slightest inclination of losing control like we have seen at other points this season, and given his 18th ranking in final round scoring average (68.87), there isn't much to be afraid of tomorrow, either.
Other Options: Tony Finau, Russell Henley, Sam Burns
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Billy Horschel, unlike almost everyone in the top half of the field, struggled more in the scorable conditions of the second round than he did in Rounds 1 and 3. His -4 under, 68 was the third-best score of the day in Saturday's third round, which saw him gain over two shots on approach and +1.08 strokes putting for the day.
At 19th place in the FedEx Cup points race, he is a virtual lock to make it to East Lake next week, but another solid round tomorrow could shrink the gap between himself and the assumed leader, Scottie Scheffler, for next Thursday's staggered starting positions. He's certainly one to keep an eye on tomorrow.
Other Options: Nick Dunlap, Byeong Hun An, Davis Thompson
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Denny McCarthy has played better this week than his -2 under-par score heading into the final round suggests. His undoing has been the lack of firepower off the tee and having two double bogeys in his last five holes during Friday's second round. Those absolutely tank golf tournaments for professional golfers.
Even still, his -3 under, 69 on Saturday should be a spark for him to throw another low number out on Sunday as he sits on the bubble of making it to next week's Tour Championship. If you're in a pinch, he could be a sneaky option.
Denny McCarthy averages 27.73 putts per round, #1 on the PGA Tour.
What makes @_dennymccarthy such a good putter?
"I don't really have a secret. It's more of a will thing. It's more of an attitude where I believe I can make any putt that I look at." pic.twitter.com/BqyE2PTTWV
— SiriusXM PGA TOUR Radio (@SiriusXMPGATOUR) August 20, 2024
Other Options: Max Greyserman
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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