Round 3 Showdown and Bets - CJ CUP

This article is going to take a look at showdown slates, round matchups, and potential outright/T20 adds after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.

My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article we are going to break down the previous round's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.

The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range, who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.

Round 2 Recap

In order to get better at this thing we call DFS, we have to reflect on past results and this section of the article will try simplify some data from today's round and try grab some important information from it to help us with decisions on tomorrow's lineups.

Highest Owned in R2

These ownership numbers are averaged between two smaller Single Entry and 3 Entry events that I entered myself into. It looks like we are figuring out who is going to be chalky and who is going to be a good pivot, quite well.

• 12 of the 13 highest owned golfers were in the Chalk Squad from yesterday's article

Highest Point Scorers in R2

As you can see from the colors below, there is not nearly as much orange (anticipated chalk) at the top of the points scorers list. The Rory fade was looking good after he went +1 on the front, but then scorched the back and salvaged the DFS day for HALF! (eye roll) the DFS field. A 30% owned Cam Davis did not help either.

• Jon Rahm was the perfect pivot off of Rory McIlroy. Had he not missed a 4 footer and bogey his final hole, he would have scored 80+ points. Wow!
• Max Homa scoring the 2nd most points after looking like he may have withdrawn from the event yesterday with a back injury, was almost more impressive than Rahm's performance.
• Kurt Kitayama continues to play incredible golf. Does it continue?
• Cameron Davis, on an Australian-type golf course, seems to be in his element.

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Ballers

We mentioned that we like to target golfers who played poorly, but that doesn't mean we need to entirely ignore those that played well. We can use a few of these guys in our lineups still, but we want to have the majority of our player pool coming from the "Prior Round Crawlers" who managed to drag their round to the 18th hole, hoping that the next day would be better.

Crawlers

This list is comprised of players who played poorly. There are definitely a few Crawlers I will be looking to target.

Round 3 Power Rankings

The Chalk Squad

These golfers should be the most owned tomorrow based off of their round 1 performance (SG Total > 0) and general skill level (R3 Pwr Rnk > 1) entering the tournament.

Chalk I have my eye on:

$10,000+: Fading this range as Rory and Rahm will come in as the two highest owned golfers

$9,000+: Kim

$8,000+: Lowry

$7,000+: Billy, Moore

$6,000+: Willet

The Pivot People

These golfers entered the tournament with high expectations, only to lose strokes to the field, making them less appetizing than the Chalk Squad but still have Round 3 Power Rankings above 1.

People I have my eye on:

$10,000+: Scottie and JT

$9,000+: Sungjae and Fitzpatrick

$8,000+: Montgomery, Hideki, Burns, Spieth

$7,000+: Bradley, Henley, Munoz

The Leverage Legends

This bunch of benchwarmers, with sunscreen not entirely absorbed by their skin, sneakers with shoelaces long enough to tie down goliath, all have the potential to have their Hollywood moment tomorrow, completely outperforming their baseline for a day, while hardly finding themselves in anybody's player pool because, well, the beginning of this massive sentence explains that. They have the opportunity to be legendary tomorrow, while providing us with massive leverage on the field.

Legends I have my eye on:

$10,000+:

$9,000+: Viktor

$8,000+:

$7,000+: Grillo, Theegala, Si Woo

$6,000+: Stallings, Hun An, Suh

Round 3 Matchup (All Time: 1-1-0, -0.05u)

Recap: Jordan Spieth o Max Homa: -105 

Yesterday's writeup: "Jordan Speith played about as bad as he could today and Max Homa is evidently injured. Expect Spieth to bounce back tomorrow, while Max may have to back out (pun intended). Max is objectively a better player right now, but he is hobbled and could land up pulling out of the tournament tomorrow after a few tough holes."

This did not go according to plan and apparently a bad back did not stop Max from posting the second-best round of the day. Woof.

Shane Lowry o Seamus Power: -145 

Seamus Power has yet to gain strokes on approach through two rounds and the majority of his scoring has been from an immaculate short game. Lowry is a better golfer than Seamus (2.64 power ratings better) and has gained the third-most strokes on approach so far. We are laying a little bit of juice at -145 but we trust Lowry to continue his incredible ball striking.

T10 Live Add

Added before R2: Shane Lowry +250 BetMGM (ties paid in full), now -105  

Shane Lowry played the back 9 without a putter and still ended the day at T15. He is striking his irons really well and could easily climb this leaderboard as the course starts playing tougher and his putter starts gaining him strokes.

Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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