RADIO
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
This week, the tour returns for The Genesis Invitational, which is being held at Torrey Pines instead of its usual location, Riviera Country Club. Golfers have faced windy conditions in both rounds so far, but the winds are expected to calm down for Saturday's Round 3, paving the way for some great golf. I anticipate lower scores than what we’ve seen in the first two rounds, as the wind is one of the main defenses for the South Course. This should lead to an exciting Round 3 and give golfers the opportunity to move up the leaderboard.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
Featured Promo: Get any Props Premium Pass for 30% off using code NEW. Win more with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Scottie Scheffler was nothing short of excellent today, gaining 2.86 strokes around the green and 2.00 strokes putting. Historically, Scheffler has performed well in Round 3, and I expect that trend to continue tomorrow. Over the first two rounds, he has gained 2.54 strokes on approach, 2.87 strokes around the green, and 3.04 strokes putting. Scheffler is looking reminiscent of the player we saw last year and should be locked and loaded in lineups tomorrow.
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Ludvig Aberg started slowly in the first round, shooting a 4-over 74. However, he bounced back in Round 2, posting an impressive 6-under par 66, which tied for the best round of the day. During Round 2, Aberg gained 2.07 strokes on approach and 1.29 strokes putting, showcasing the level of play we expect from him. I believe he will continue this into Round 3 and throughout the weekend.
Other Options: Tommy Fleetwood, Patrick Cantlay
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Russell Henley played well in the first round, especially given the wet and windy conditions. He gained over two strokes on approach in both rounds, gaining of 2.53 in Round 1 and 2.44 in Round 2. Although he lost 1.04 strokes putting in Round 1 and 1.12 in Round 2, Henley is still well-positioned for the weekend. Typically, he is a much better putter than he showed in the first two rounds, making him an excellent player to consider for lineups in Round 3.
Other Options: Sam Burns, Jason Day
This week is always a special one for @PRodgersGolf pic.twitter.com/5qSSFONCqL
— The Genesis Invitational (@thegenesisinv) February 14, 2025
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Akshay Bhatia started strong in Round 1, playing his first nine holes without a bogey. However, his performance on the last nine holes was less impressive, and he finished with a score of 3-over 75. In Round 2, Bhatia managed to regroup and shot a 5-under 67, with only one bogey. He was outstanding on approach and putting, gaining 2.95 strokes on approach and 2.01 strokes putting in Round 2. Although he hasn’t historically been a high scorer in Round 3, he seems to have found a good rhythm and should be able to maintain his solid form going into the next round.
Other Options: Sam Stevens, Davis Thompson, Aaron Rai, Patrick Rodgers, Denny McCarthy
Best putter on @PGATOUR ⛳️ pic.twitter.com/CLrUbhI7DU
— The Genesis Invitational (@thegenesisinv) February 14, 2025
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Stephan Jaeger faced a difficult first round, finishing with a 3-over 75, which included seven bogeys. What was most impressive is that he gained 3.12 strokes on approach shots but lost 3.32 strokes while putting. In Round 2, he was less effective on approach, gaining only 1.14 strokes, but he improved significantly on the greens, losing just 0.51 strokes putting. Historically, Jaeger scores well in Round 3, and if he can improve his putting, he will create birdie opportunities tomorrow and give himself the chance to go low.
Other Options: Matt Fitzpatrick, J.J. Spaun, Jake Knapp
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Seamus Power had a solid first round, finishing 3-under with a 69 and only one bogey. He gained 2.80 strokes on approach and 2.68 strokes putting in Round 1. The second round proved to be more challenging for Power; he posted a score of 1-over par (73), which included three bogeys and one eagle. He lost 0.12 strokes on approach but still managed to gain 0.57 strokes putting. If he can minimize bogeys and replicate his performance from the first round, he has a great chance of going low in Round 3.
New day, new challenges. Swipe to see the leaderboard going into Moving Day pic.twitter.com/QaPW5FigGd
— The Genesis Invitational (@thegenesisinv) February 15, 2025
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
Win More With RotoBallerWin more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.
Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS and Betting content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win more.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
