RADIO
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or if you’re new to this particular DFS format.
This week, the tour is back in Palm Springs, California, for the American Express. Charley Hoffman and Rico Hoey are currently tied at the top of the leaderboard, both at an eye-watering 16-under after two rounds. Can Hoey maintain his form throughout the weekend and secure his first tour win?
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Which side are you on: Team Hoffman or Team Rico? 🏌️♂️ pic.twitter.com/oxMrs0nEGv
— The American Express ® (@theamexgolf) January 18, 2025
Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The Pete Dye Stadium Course (SC) has proven to be the most challenging in the first two rounds, with an average score of 0.2 over par in Round 1 and 0.19 under par in Round 2. The Nicklaus Tournament Course (NT) and La Quinta Country Club (LQ) were shredded and delivered much lower scores in both rounds. The Nicklaus Tournament Course recorded an average score of 3.8 under par in Round 1 and 4.4 under par in Round 2, while La Quinta Country Club had average scores of 3.7 under par in Round 1 and 3.25 under par in Round 2.
Scores made on No. 16 at the Stadium Course Friday:
Birdies: 13
Pars: 30
Bogeys: 7
Double Bogeys: 1
Triple: 0
Quadruple: 0
Quintuple: 0
Sextuple: 0
Septuple: 0
Octuple: 0
Nonuple: 0
Decuple: 0
Undecuple: 0
Duodecuple: 0
Baker's Dozen: 1pic.twitter.com/NAahOiPNsU— Underdog Golf (@Underdog__Golf) January 18, 2025
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and are creating birdie opportunities.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Justin Thomas has been nothing short of sharp in his first two rounds, shooting a 5-under 67 in the first round and an 8-under 64 in the second round. He will be playing the Stadium Course in Round 3, along with other players in this range. Although the Stadium Course has had a higher scoring average than the other two, expect Thomas to maintain his strong form and position himself well for a chance to win on Sunday.
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Sungjae Im had a challenging first round, posting a 5-over 77 at the Stadium Course. However, he bounced back in a big way in Round 2, firing a 7-under 65 at La Quinta Country Club. He'll take on the Nicklaus Tournament Course in his third round. Sitting at 2-under par after two rounds, he has the perfect chance to be aggressive, make birdies, and move up the leaderboard.
Other Options: Tom Kim
$8,000+
Favorite Play: J.T. Poston had an outstanding first round, shooting a 10-under 62 and taking the lead. However, his second round at the Stadium Course was a struggle, as he posted a 4-over 76. Now, in the third round on the Nicklaus Tournament Course, Poston has the opportunity to rebound. We can expect him to make birdies and go low.
Other Options: Harry Hall
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Mark Hubbard has been on fire this week, carding an 8-under 64 in Round 2 at the Stadium Course. He has positioned himself well heading into the weekend, playing his third round at La Quinta Country Club. The first two rounds at La Quinta have seen some low scores, giving Hubbard a great opportunity to rise to the top of the leaderboard as he approaches the final round on Sunday.
Other Options: Nick Taylor, Jesper Svensson, Daniel Berger
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Carson Young has been impressive in the first two rounds, shooting a 7-under 65 at the Stadium Course in Round 1 and a 4-under 68 at La Quinta Country Club in Round 2. He will play his third round at the Nicklaus Tournament Course, giving him the chance to continue making birdies and climb the leaderboard.
Other Options: Taylor Moore
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Mackenzie Hughes has had a slow start to the season and missed the cut at last week's Sony Open. However, he finished his first round 2-under at the Pete Dye Stadium Course and then posted a 4-under at La Quinta Country Club in Round 2. Hughes will take on the Nicklaus Tournament course in Round 3 giving him the perfect opportunity to go low and move up the leaderboard.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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