RADIO
The darkest times tend create the strongest bonds between people and tonight on Twitter/X, us golf maniacs were left in the dark regarding the PGA Tour's coverage of the Sony Open. With multiple 20%+ owned golfers sitting inside the cut at -2, Joel Dahmen had a five foot birdie putt on the last to get himself to -3 and leave 18 or so other golfers without a weekend tee time. He missed the putt and the 18 survived. Sure would have been cool to have had that on TV, but I guess that's far too much to ask for in the year of 2024.
We have a three-way tie for first between Byeong Hun An, Austin Eckroat, and Carl Yuan, while 11 golfers sit in a tie for fourth place, one shot back at -8. This tournament is wide open and tomorrow's showdown should be a fun one. We have the entire field going off both tees at the same time, so no wave advantages throughout the day.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 2 Analysis
Round 2 DK Points Leaders
Three of the top 12 points scorers were unowned in R2, while only three of the top 12 were double digit owned.
Round 2 Ownership Leaders
Scottie ... sheesh dude. Chill out. Please.
Weather & Tee Times
They are sending all 82 guys off both tees. Lame. Not that big of a weather edge with only an hour or two between the first and last tee times.
Round 3 Strategy
With weather edges not so prevalent in Round 3, we get most of the slate to choose from again. Going off of Round 3 projected ownership in the model, we are going to find some golfers with lower than usual ownership who are still projected to be top scorers tomorrow.
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Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Ludvig Aberg is due to just have an explosive round. With the way he drives the ball and his ability to get hot with any area of his game, I would not be surprised if he shoots the field low round. His lackluster recent Hawaii form has him a little underappreciated by those with a memory of a goldfish. Not so long ago, he was running rogue around Sea Island literally two starts ago, forcing us to believe he was the next greatest thing. Hopefully, he reminds people of that tomorrow.
Tyrrell Hatton is the only other option and I will be playing both $10K guys, with 35% of my lineups rostering them together. We have a few $6K guys we really like and this build gets us different in the bigger GPPs.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Eric Cole had a very uninspiring outing in R2, but as the leading birdie maker in the field, we are going to anticipate a bounce back at $9,100. He was a benefactor of the Dahmen 5 footer that kept him around for the weekend.
Other options: Russell Henley, J.T. Poston
$8,000+
Favorite play: Denny McCarthy's game seems about as tired as I am sitting here at 1:23 typing away, rather deliriously about a guy has been playing substandard golf by his ability, hoping that we can see the best putter in the field, you know, play like it. He is cheap at $8,200 for a great putter who is capable of just really tearing a benign short coastal course apart.
Other options: Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose
$7,000+
Favorite play: Nick Taylor made his way into the weekend with a solid -4 in R2 and boasts the best R3 scoring average in the field at 2.01 SG.+ That's really all there is to this. Go have yourself a Saturday, Nick.
Other options: Keegan Bradley, Alex Noren, Luke List, >>Billy Horschel<<, Ryo Hisatsune.
$6,000+
Favorite play: Alejandro Tosti played rather well in R1 and got stuck in neutral in R2. He is revving to get out there again for R3 and tear this course up.
Other options: Matthieu Pavon, Dylan Wu, Harry Hall, Ben Silverman, Robby Shelton
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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