RADIO
Ian Christenson Round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 Valspar Championship. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
Despite some low scores in the morning wave, the afternoon group finished the day scoring lower than the morning round by a little over half a stroke. Keith Mitchell entered Round 2 tied for the lead but shot a 2-over 73, dropping him into a tie for 14th place. Jacob Bridgeman continued rolling it on the greens with the flat stick, leading the field by one stroke at 6-under as we head into the weekend. Following Bridgeman are Viktor Hovland, Ryo Hisatsune, and Benny An at 5-under.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The weather forecast for tomorrow and Sunday indicates calmer conditions compared to what we saw on Thursday and Friday. This should create ideal conditions for quality golf and an exciting finish.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Xander Schauffele followed up his solid first round with a 3-under 68 in Round 2. He was EXCEPTIONAL with his approach play, gaining 4.44 strokes on approach in Round 2, but surprisingly lost 1.42 strokes on the green. While I don't expect him to replicate the same level of approach play we saw today, if he can sink a few more putts, we'll definitely want him in our lineups. Over the first two rounds, he has gained 7.45 strokes tee-to-green. He just needs to put all the pieces together tomorrow. With calmer conditions expected tomorrow, he should have a great opportunity to go low.
🔃 #ValsparChampionship https://t.co/0yLlK5QcHd
— Valspar Championship (@ValsparChamp) March 21, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Corey Conners has been solid in both rounds so far. While he hasn't been standout, his overall game has been strong. In Round 2, he gained 0.70 strokes on approach and 0.59 strokes putting. In Round 1, despite teeing off in the windier afternoon conditions, he gained 1.73 strokes, although he struggled on the greens, losing 0.82 strokes putting. Over the first two rounds combined, Conners gained a total of 4.88 strokes from tee to green. With calmer conditions expected tomorrow, he should have plenty of opportunities for birdies.
Other Options: Shane Lowry, Will Zalatoris
Shane making moves! #ValsparChampionship https://t.co/BeSj4hMJYR
— Valspar Championship (@ValsparChamp) March 21, 2025
$8,000+
Favorite Play: As I mentioned yesterday, I plan to continue riding the hot hand with Jacob Bridgeman. Although Bridgeman wasn't as good with his approach or putting in Round 2 compared to Round 1, he still managed to gain 1.66 strokes putting in Round 2 and finished with a 2-under 69, despite losing 0.14 strokes on approach. In total, he has gained 7.45 strokes putting over the first two rounds. Since he is rolling the rock so well right now, I see no reason to go anywhere else.
Other Options: J.T. Poston
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Viktor Hovland has been solid on approach in both rounds. He gained 1.29 strokes on approach in the first round and 0.22 strokes in the second round. On top of that, he gained 1.37 strokes putting in Round 1 and 3.88 strokes in Round 2. It seems like Vik may have found his groove again. So far, he has gained 7.66 strokes total in the first two rounds. I fully expect him to push hard tomorrow, giving himself a chance to win this thing on Sunday. This could be the springboard he needed to jumpstart his season.
Other Options: Sahith Theegala, Billy Horschel, Thomas Detry, Max McGreevy
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Davis Riley is our prototype target for tomorrow. In Round 1, he gained 2.86 strokes on approach and 2.38 strokes putting. In Round 2, he gained 1.47 strokes on approach but lost 2.47 strokes putting. He has shown that he can putt well on these greens, but more importantly, he has gained strokes on approach in both rounds so far. Additionally, his overall play has been solid, gaining 6.07 strokes total over both rounds.
Other Options: Ricky Castillo, Jeremy Paul
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Matthieu Pavon perfectly embodies the type of boom-or-bust golfer we want to target in this section of the article. In Round 1, he gained 4.09 strokes on approach and 1.17 strokes from putting. However, in Round 2, he lost 0.35 strokes on approach but gained 1.95 strokes putting. He has shown he can get it done on the greens, and if his approach play is ANYTHING close to what we saw from him in Round 1, he will create plenty of opportunities for birdies.
🚨 ACE ALERT 🚨
Congrats, Steven! Amazing moment to witness for the fans! 🎯#ValsparChampionship https://t.co/PI2QQ41kfI
— Valspar Championship (@ValsparChamp) March 21, 2025
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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