RADIO
Ian Christenson Round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 The PLAYERS Championship. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
In the morning wave, we saw some low scores, with Collin Morikawa and Charley Hoffman leading the way at 7 under for their rounds. However, it was Justin Thomas, who played in the afternoon wave, who tied the course record and carded the lowest round of the day with a 10 under 62. The weekend promises to be as thrilling as ever, especially with the anticipated weather conditions. The morning wave is expected to have a slight advantage in Round 3.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
The weather forecast for tomorrow indicates that it will be slightly windier than in the first two rounds, especially in the afternoon. TPC Sawgrass is already a challenging course under normal conditions, but tomorrow's weather will present an even greater challenge for the golfers. Considering the expected afternoon winds, golfers in the morning should have a slight advantage as I mentioned above.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
JT ties the lowest round of all-time at TPC Sawgrass! #THEPLAYERS pic.twitter.com/946QGC59Vz
— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERS) March 14, 2025
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Rory McIlroy shot a 4-under 68, despite doing nothing spectacular statistically. His play was somewhat ordinary today, but he still managed to climb the leaderboard and finish in a tie for fourth. In Round 2, he lost 1.15 strokes on approach but gained 1.48 strokes putting. While he was solid around the greens and from tee to green, he didn't particularly excel in either area. If McIlroy can put everything together tomorrow, which he is certainly capable of doing, he could find himself at the top of the leaderboard as he heads into Sunday. At the very least, he will create birdie opportunities and have a chance to shoot low.
Rory. #THEPLAYERS pic.twitter.com/hpp60fo4mY
— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERS) March 14, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Tommy Fleetwood stepped his play up today, and I expect him to continue to do so by positioning himself well off the tee, as he gained 1.62 strokes off the tee in Round 1. He's shown he can follow up his A1 positions off the tee and execute his approach shots by being aggressive and attacking the pin. He gained 2.50 strokes on approach and 1.59 strokes putting in Round 2. Although he will tee off in the afternoon wave, I see no reason why he can't maintain his level of play despite the tougher conditions.
Other Options: Patrick Cantlay
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Will Zalatoris has been nothing short of EXCEPTIONAL with his approach play in the first two rounds, gaining 3.35 strokes on approach in both Round 1 and Round 2. He improved his putting in Round 2, gaining 1.41 strokes on the greens, although this is still what he's capable of. The only reason his approach game doesn't match the level of his first two rounds is the windier conditions. However, Zalatoris can still create birdie opportunities despite challenging conditions. He may need to sink a few longer birdie putts, but I believe this is something more than capable of doing.
Other Options: Corey Conners, Sepp Straka
$7,000+
Favorite Play: J.J. Spaun followed up his first round with another solid performance in Round 2. After carding a bogey-free 66 in Round 1, he only carded two bogeys in his second round, including one on his final hole of the day. He's drained six birdies in both rounds. In Round 2, he gained 0.70 strokes on approach and 0.56 strokes putting. Most importantly, he remains among the top players in strokes gained tee to green. Given his form heading into this week and solid play in the first two rounds, he will be an excellent option for Round 3 showdown lineups.
Other Options: Lucas Glover, Robert Macintyre
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Jacob Bridgeman has quietly put together two solid rounds, sitting tied for 11th after carding a 3-under 69 in both Round 1 and Round 2. He gained 2.07 strokes on approach shots but lost 0.58 strokes putting in Round 2. Bridgeman has already shown he can get it done with the flat stick; in Round 1, he gained 2.46 strokes putting. He is EXACTLY the type of player to target, as he has shown he can putt well on these greens, even though today he didn't drop as many birdies as he is certainly capable of making. Most importantly, he's consistently created birdie opportunities; let’s just hope he drops a few more in the cup tomorrow than he did today.
Other Options: Chandler Phillips, Harris English
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Isaiah Salinda is a player who may be under-owned in Round 3. While he didn't stand out in my model, it's worth noting that he gained 0.39 strokes on approach and 0.80 strokes putting in Round 1. In Round 2, he lost 0.21 strokes on approach but gained 0.26 strokes putting. He will tee off in the morning wave tomorrow, and I'm willing to take a chance on him due to his steady play. In addition to being low-owned, he has shown in recent tournaments that he's capable of improving both his approach play and putting. He gained 2.52 strokes tee to green in Round 1, which makes him a player I'm willing to back.
36 holes remain.#THEPLAYERS pic.twitter.com/FuNOLz1Obb
— THE PLAYERS (@THEPLAYERS) March 15, 2025
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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