RADIO
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates, round matchups, and potential outright/T20 adds after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article we are going to break down the previous round's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range, who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
Ownership Analysis
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership for the week-long tournaments, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in R2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
Ballers
We mentioned that we like to target golfers who played poorly, but that doesn't mean we need to entirely ignore those that played well. We can use a few of these guys in our lineups still, but we want to have the majority of our player pool coming from the prior round "Crawlers" who managed to drag their round to the 18th hole, hoping that the next day would be better.
Crawlers
This list is comprised of players who played poorly. There are definitely a few Crawlers I will be looking to target.
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Round 2 Power Rankings
My power rankings for round 2 are calculated as follows: Pre-event Ranking (50%) + Round 2 Scoring Average (37.5%) + Birdie or Better % (12.5%)
The Chalk Squad
These golfers should be the most owned tomorrow based off of their round 1 performance and general skill level (Pwr Rnk). As usual, we are going to give most of these golfers a skip, as their ownership is going to be bonkers. Rahm could come in a 50% owned, based off his play yesterday and pretournament popularity, with Collin's price and performance most likely getting him close to 40%.
I will be playing Scottie Scheffler as he lead the field in tee to green strokes gained and will be priced right under a very popular Rahm.
The Pivot People
These guys find themselves in the middle of the leaderboard. Their round did not go according to plan and we are banking on them to bounce back today.
$10,000: Justin Thomas
$9,000: Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland
$8,000: Nobody
$7,000: Hideki Matsuyama, Brian Harman, Seamus Power (he may still be rather popular at this price)
$6,000: Nobody
The Leverage Lads
The lowest owned golfers who should give us the most leverage in a DFS Showdown slate.
$9,000: Xander Schauffele is at risk of withdrawing at any moment, but we have seen guys with injuries play with zero expectations and go off with nobody owning them. Will play him in one lineup, most likely alongside Scottie and/or Power.
$8,000: Cameron Young, Max Homa
$7,000: Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley
$6,000: Sepp Straka, Russell Henley, Billy Horschel (he may be the lowest owned guy on the slate after yesterday's clunker - worth a gamble).
Good luck this week and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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