RADIO
Thomas Detry leads the Pebble Beach Pro-Am after chipping in on the final hole to break the hearts of Patrick Cantlay FRLs (First Round Leaders). He was also only 2% owned in the $5 Single Entry. Cantlay sits one shot back at -8, with both of them now heading to Pebble Beach.
We are going to have to figure out how to handle the ownership, which was mainly concentrated on Pebble Beach today, but after Spyglass played half a stroke easier, it makes for some interesting game theory which we discuss later in the article.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating toward, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 1 Analysis
Winning Lineup - Stacked all 6 Spyglass golfers
Round 1 DK Points Leaders
Round 1 Ownership Leaders
Weather, Course Conditions & Tee Times
Round 2 Strategy
Six of the top seven priced golfers for Round 2 are playing Pebble Beach. If you think about the fact that scoring was half a stroke easier on Spyglass in R1, it may be because nine of the 12 most expensive golfers in R2 played there, of which eight of them scored -3 or better (if you exclude the two-shot penalty Rory incurred, he would have shot -3). In fact, the golfers cheaper than $8,800 who played either course were only separated by half a DK point on average.
Below are the golfers who rank between 0.5 and 1 when looking at their SG on the course they will be playing tomorrow as well as their Round 2 scoring. The best 19 golfers of these rankings and the bottom half have been posted in the RotoBaller Discord, which Premium subscribers have access to. Code NEW for 30% off our premium stuff, which works out to $17.40 a month, if you are interested in that kind of thing!
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Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Scottie Scheffler is our only horse above $10K as he ranks as the number one scorer for R2 and has the best R2 strokes gained average in the field. He had two three putts on Spyglass today and still shot -3. If we can get any sort of bump in his putting for a round, we can expect him to jump to the top of board in showdown points with a bit of assistance on the greens. Even if it doesn't happen, his ball striking is simply elite and maintains a ridiculously high floor as a result of that.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Justin Thomas is back to playing incredible golf again. He is striking the ball great again and his putter seems to have become a weapon instead of holding him back. We know he can make birdies in bunches and I feel comfortable playing him until R4, where he has not quite managed to keep his foot on the gas in recent performances. A lot to like about JT nowadays.
Other options: Max Homa, Collin Morikawa
$8,000+
Favorite play: Sam Burns birdied six of his last 12 holes in R1 after playing the first six two over par. When Sam is playing well, we want to keep going back to him and he shouldn't be that highly owned. As he showed today and at the AMEX when he tied the course record, he can go low. Let's see what he can get up to in R2.
Other options: Tony Finau, Nicolai Hojgaard
$7,000+
Favorite play: Adam Scott is averaging +2.6 strokes gained in his six rounds of golf around Pebble Beach Golf Links. They go all the way back to 2019 and 2018, but the way his recent form has been across the pond and how his game translates to what Pebble demands on approach. He is a great putter on Poa and he will be my highest rostered golfer in my player pool.
Other options: Sahith Theegala, Eric Cole, Denny McCarthy, Kevin Yu, Brendon Todd, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Taylor Montgomery
$6,000+
Favorite play: Matt Kuchar grades out really well for his price tag. He loves playing on Spyglass and played really nicely in R1. He is an underrated Par 5 scorer of which Pebble has four.
Other options: Sam Ryder, Taylor Moore
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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