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Kev Mahserejian continues RotoBaller's bold predictions series for 2021 fantasy baseball with more outside-the-box calls on player breakouts and busts.
For more than one reason, 2020 sucked. Obvious reasons come to mind but specifically, for the fantasy sports world, there were dozens of random occurrences that could not have been predicted whatsoever due to COVID being so fresh and protocols so flimsy. Guys like Austin Meadows and Eduardo Rodriguez lost a potentially very good season due to contracting the virus. Meadows actually played and was completely off while Rodriguez was hospitalized and unable to take the mound. However, there was a flip-side where Freddie Freeman was diagnosed, felt like death, and then won NL MVP...
COVID-19 is awful and still around to a lesser degree. We will have to navigate it and cannot account for it unfortunately on a player-to-player basis.
Also, bold predictions almost always suck as well. Hopefully, mine don't but hey, I hope you all at least enjoy reading them!
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No Padres SP Pitches a Full Season, Only Paddack and Musgrove Provide ADP-Relative Value
Not to say that Yu Darvish, Dinelson Lamet, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove, or Chris Paddack will be bad but how many innings can we realistically expect from this group? Not exactly the most trustworthy arms given their respective histories. It would be wholly unfair to label any player as injury-prone but it is fair to point out if they are currently dealing with an injury of some sort or very recently. Relevant information exists that allows us to connect the dots. Also, coming off of a shortened COVID season, we will see more restrictions than ever.
Let's start with Blake Snell. In 2019, he had elbow surgery to remove loose bodies and missed two months of the season between July and September. He returned to pitch in a limited starting capacity, not going over 2.1 innings in the regular season through three starts and then pitching 3.1 in his lone playoff start versus Houston. He did pitch well in this stint post-surgery, leaving fantasy managers hopeful for 2020. However, in March of 2020, he experienced a "super sore" elbow which was likely a result of the past season's surgery along with just general fatigue pitchers experience. He received a cortisone injection and luckily had the season pushed back due to COVID, allowing him to pitch nearly a full season (50 innings in 11 starts). However, in the final game of the World Series where he was handed the ball, Snell was notoriously removed after a very good outing in the bottom of the sixth with only 70~ pitches thrown.
Kevin Cash received a LOT of heat for this decision but how realistic is it that this was from the top of the organization to preserve their prized, Cy Young-winning asset in Snell? While Snell was subsequently traded after his frustrations aired, there have to be more questions asked. The Rays' return, headlined by Luis Patino and Francisco Mejia was solid but they have to know more than we do here. My guess is, Snell is a ticking time-bomb and fantasy managers will wish to have stayed far away at some point this season.
On to Dinelson Lamet - his situation is a bit more obvious. Lamet received a PRP injection shortly after his final outing of 2020, just before the playoffs. The belief was that Lamet would return to contribute in some capacity, but he never did and speculation arose as to how healthy he actually was. PRP is typically a precursor for surgery and like Snell, Lamet is a ticking time-bomb and rightfully fell across fantasy drafts universally. He may not get past the first month of the season.
Yu Darvish is much harder to peg here given that he is currently fully healthy but looking at his history, it is not pretty either. Darvish underwent Tommy John in 2015 after experiencing elbow soreness that ended his 2014 season short. While he has pitched a *full* season in each of the past two years, 2020 was his first elite year since 2016. He missed 75% of 2018 after a horrid start with the Cubs due to a stress reaction in his right elbow and a triceps strain as well. He is 34-years old at the moment and will turn 35 before the season's end. Typically, as baseball players age, they do not tend to get much healthier or less prone to injury.
Joe Musgrove and Chris Paddack each have their respective issues as well, but both are going past pick 100 in drafts and have skill levels that can reach the heights of a top-50 player. Musgrove dealt with right triceps inflammation and ankle soreness (less worrisome) last year, resulting in a missed month. However, he returned in September and pitched as well as he ever had with a 2.16 ERA and 38K in 25IP. The competition in this stretch was weak, but Musgrove's changed pitch mix could indicate future success as he starts a new chapter in San Diego.
Paddack underwent Tommy John in 2017 and has had his innings limited since. He pitched 90 total innings in 2018, 140.2 in 2019, then 59 in 2020 (obviously, due to the short season). Now, three years removed from Tommy John, it is very possible that Paddack has the reins removed but that is going to depend on how well he pitches. Paddack's 4.73 ERA in 2020 led to concerns about his fastball, and whether it would play up to a starter's level going forward. This is after a stellar 2019 in which he looked like the future ace of the staff. Over the offseason though, he has stated that he has fine-tuned his approach while focusing on the analytic side of pitching to maximize his spin efficiency and create better outcomes with the stuff he possesses.
While it may seem like a stretch, thanks to ADP and current health, the only Padres starting pitchers I have any interest in are Paddack and Musgrove. The cost of acquisition on Darvish, Snell and Lamet are much too high given the concerns that come along with them.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Returns Top-20 Value
This will be much shorter than the segment above. Vlad Guerrero Jr. was/is a super prospect whose #1 overall ranking as a prospect coming into his rookie 2019 season has yet to be universally justified. He played 2019 at 20 years old and 2020 at 21. In both seasons his was an above-average hitter with a wRC+ of 105 then 115. Improvement occurred, it was just underwhelming relative to expectations. This improvement occurred along several lines as his strikeout rate decreased from 17.7% to 15.6%, ISO increased from .162 to .199, barrel rate went up from 7.2% to 8.7%, and his hard-hit went up from 38.7% to 50.8%. However, his BABIP went down from .308 to .282. This was the first time in his minor or major league career that his BABIP fell below .300. Not to say this is impossible given MLB-level defenses/alignments along with the biggest concern at hand.
Yes, the big issue with Vlad Jr. is that he fails to lift the ball in the air. He has a groundball-to-flyball ratio that is higher than ideal and has carried over since the minor leagues. It actually increased from 2019 to 2020! Not great. However, the hope with his weight loss over this past offseason is that he is a more fluid, consistent hitter who can contort his body to lift the ball more often. This is purely guess-work on my end but I have a hard time buying that a 22-year old with immaculate bat-to-ball skills won't figure it out.
The old saying goes that a player is a rookie until he has a full season of a professional sport under his belt and Vlad Jr. is at 183 games played now after two seasons. The breakout may have just been slightly delayed. He had a max-EV of 118.9mph as a rookie, that's basically Aaron Judge-level power but Vlad Jr. doesn't have health or strikeout issues. He also now plays in a lineup that just added George Springer and Marcus Semien to replace significantly lower-level hitters in Randal Grichuk and Jonathan Villar. With young, potent hitters across the lineup including Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, Rowdy Tellez, and Teoscar Hernandez, there is a decent chance this Blue Jays' offense is top-5 in 2021 even if Vlad Jr. does not take a massive leap. Sky's the limit if he does.
Trevor Rogers Ends 2021 As Miami's Fantasy SP1
This is a lot less bold after his hype from Spring Training but I had concocted this before-hand so...whatever. Trevor Rogers, Miami's first-round pick from the 2017 Amateur Draft is very, very good and has an incredible mix of stuff+command. He was unlucky in his short-MLB stint in 2020 with a 6.11 ERA but a 3.53 xERA, 3.67 xFIP, and 3.86 SIERA make it all seem less bad. If you discount his first MLB start against the Mets where he walked 5 possibly due to jitters, he had 33 strikeouts to 8 walks the rest of the way. He suffered two blow-up starts which inflated his ERA but that's not uncommon for a rookie.
Rogers recently turned 23-years old and had a great minor league career leading to his MLB call-up after just 5 AA starts in 2019 and work in the Miami alternate site last season. He will start the season as Miami's SP4 behind Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lopez, and Elieser Hernandez while acting as the lone LHP for Miami. Sixto Sanchez, arguably Miami's highest pedigree SP, is going to have his innings monitored and start the season in the alternate site.
Why I have Rogers as Miami's SP1 for fantasy is due to two factors: one being his high level of talent/strikeout potential, two being his handedness. Playing in the NL East is brutal. The 4 teams that are not Miami are all playoff-caliber and possess offenses that can all easily land in the top-10 if healthy. The Mets and Braves were 2nd and 3rd in wRC+ while Philadelphia was not far behind at 9th. Washington at 14th is not terrible either as they can be considered just above average but their offseason moves to add Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber should be seen as a massive plus for their offense. Speaking of additions, the Mets added soon-to-be $300 million+ dollar man, Francisco Lindor. This division is insane.
The caveat is that these lineups will be much better versus RHP rather than LHP. The Nationals, Phillies, and Mets were respectively 5th, 6th, and 7th in wRC+ versus LHP last season and it's most likely that the Mets are the only team that will have improved in this facet via the Lindor addition. The Braves were 2nd versus RHP and 15th versus LHP. Bell and Schwarber do nothing but make Washington stronger against RHP. Then for Philadelphia, Rhys Hoskins is coming off of Tommy John and he was one of the more prominent LHP bashers for Philly. TJ usually takes a year or so to recover after missing time which makes Hoskins hard to trust in getting back to past levels.
The Marlins' starters will face plenty of teams outside of their division as well but given that 46.9% of their games come intra-division, it is important to have a heavy valuation on that competition. The short-season also is not the *best* measure of a team given the sample but the individual players evaluated in these above cases are based on career performances/splits.
Dominic Smith Plays At Least 145 Games
The Mets would be absolutely stupid not to do this. Dom Smith is one of the best hitters in baseball who has had his play-time cut short due to his liability as a fielder which is so much less important now with defensive alignments, laser tracking, and analytics generalizing defense as much, much less valuable than offense anyway. With Steve Cohen's purchase of the Mets, the assumption is that they are far more nuanced and progressive moving forward. Smith has no split issue versus LHP, leaving one less excuse to keep him on the bench for guys like Albert Almora Jr., Kevin Pillar, Jonathan Villar, and Luis Guillorme.
Jordan Romano Finishes Top-Five in Saves
The Kirby Yates injury opens up a season-long closer role for Jordan Romano to take on. While there is a discussion on other guys in this Toronto bullpen like Rafael Dolis, Romano outperformed his significantly last season despite both possession ERAs in the 1.50 range. Dolis's 3.97 SIERA and 4.01 xFIP don't hold a candle to Romano's 2.59/2.40. Romano though did pitch 10 fewer innings making his season a tad flimsier. Romano was handed the definitive closer job after Ken Giles's injury and only relinquished it due to a finger injury that sidelined him for the season. He finishes top-5 based on his history as a starter creating an ability to pitch plenty of innings while also on a winning team for this season. Yates was getting drafted as a top-10 reliever and he pitched just 3.1 innings in 2020.
Giovanny Gallegos Closes More Games than Jordan Hicks
Jordan Hicks missed half of 2019 and all of 2020 due to Tommy John but is back in action throwing 100+mph in Spring Training. Hicks has the stuff to be a closer but has not been an elite reliever at the MLB level just yet due to his walks that have been over a 10% rate since his call up to the majors. Hicks did improve significantly from 2018 to 2019 but now, coming off of elbow surgery, there is a chance that he is monitored significantly and maybe not even allowed to pitch back-to-back games consistently.
Giovanny Gallegos on the other hand has decreased his SIERA in each consecutive season of his MLB career while his K% has increased. He is an elite reliever who is fully capable of outperforming Hicks and holding the role of closer despite the organization's desire for Hicks as their future closer. St. Louis is built to win now and the job will go to whoever is pitching best, my assumption is that it will remain Gallegos who had 4 saves in 15IP last season.
Kyle Seager Out-Produces Nolan Arenado
Arenado is moving from the hitter-friendliest park in baseball across-the-board for right-handed hitters to the fourth-worst for RH home runs and fifth-worst for RH doubles according to FanGraphs' Guts!.
Also, this is not as much a knock on Arenado as it is a prop-up for Kyle Seager, an underrated, good hitter who will be playing just about every day in a lineup that is improving with the additions of Jarred Kelenic, Ty France, Taylor Trammel, and a healthy Mitch Haniger.
For their careers:
Nolan Arenado away from Coors - .263 AVG, .322 OBP, .471 SLG, 7.8% BB, 16.3% K, .334 wOBA, 108 wRC+
Kyle Seager - .256 AVG, .326 OBP, .443 SLG, 8.6% BB, 17.3% K, .331 wOBA, 112 wRC+
They are so, so close for their careers and Arenado probably outperforms him in a better lineup but a half-month heater from Seager could flip that.
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