RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - The Valspar Championship

3 years ago by Spencer Aguiar

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Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for the fourth season.

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Owen Vrabel, Matt Miller and Josh Bennett will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

One and Done Selections - The Valspar Championship

Joe Nicely - Viktor Hovland

Alternate - Alex Noren

Well…Justin Thomas fought the good fight for me last week, putting together one of the most impressive rounds of shotmaking I’ve ever seen, only to land a big fat T33. Yeah…The Players kinda sucked.

As we move to the Valspar Championship, we’re faced with a Copperhead Course that might be just as tough as Sawgrass in its own way, but thankfully, it appears that there at least won’t be biblical weather this week. My strategy for the Valspar is similar to my overall OAD strategy to this point…make thoughtful decisions, but don’t get too cute. So while there are several viable sidestreets I could wander down this week, I’m going to keep my eyes on the prize and play by the rules of the road with Viktor Hovland.

For lack of better prose, Hovland’s ball-striking has been a thing of beauty this year. I won’t dive into the stats (they are phenomenal), but let’s just say if it weren’t for his still-concerning lapses around the green, we could realistically be talking about a guy that won the last two or three tournaments he’s played. I think that possibility becomes a reality this week and I look for Vik to grab his first career victory in the United States.

Yearly Earnings - $4,601,761
Yearly Cuts Made - 7/9

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Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley gets to the window. @RotoBaller

4-0-1 in-tournament H2Hs this week
9-1-1 on the season. https://t.co/bGvwKIWIBu pic.twitter.com/se5s4mWjPi
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) January 16, 2022

Spencer Aguiar - Louis Oosthuizen

Alternate - Dustin Johnson

It was not a good finish for Justin Thomas at the Players Championship, who dropped a few hundred thousand dollars on the 17th hole after dunking it in the water. I have become accustomed to that level of pain in this contest, but I don't love this new trend where everyone seems to be getting their man across the finish line for massive payouts. It was Joe two weeks ago that changed the complexion of the contest when he landed Scottie Scheffler for over two million, and the haymakers continued at the Players Championship, with Owen earning the biggest jewel of the season on Cameron Smith for just shy of four million.

The question now becomes: What is my best strategy moving forward to keep myself in the game? My model seems to believe that Viktor Hovland could be trending towards earning his first PGA title on American soil, but with Hovland already out of my player pool after using him at the API, let's grab the next best golfer in the world that has yet to win inside the United States.

In reality, I think the difference between Louis Oosthuizen and Dustin Johnson is extremely minimal, but I like the idea of saving DJ for later in the year (in hopes that he fully regains his form). Oosthuizen has been brilliant at Copperhead over the past few years, finishing inside the top-16 in every start since 2016, and my model believes that the level of safety we have seen from him stems from his third-place marks in the reweighted tee-to-green metrics that I run. If all of that isn't enticing enough, Oosthuizen does jump to the top golfer on the slate when combining my course-specific tee-to-green data with putting on overseeded properties, which is enough for me to take a shot on a golfer that has had trouble closing the show in the past - but might be undervalued from a game theory standpoint - especially when I am trying to play defense against options I no longer have available in my queue.

Yearly Earnings - $3,699,689
Yearly Cuts Made - 9/9

Matt Miller - Tyrrell Hatton

Alternate - Jason Kokrak

Tyrrell made some headlines last week after another fiery outburst on the course. I had my own outburst last week after my OAD pick, Daniel Berger, was caught on the wrong side of the draw so I'm going to give him a pass on this one. Despite what the on-course antics may suggest, Hatton is in great form right now. He has not finished outside the top 16 in an event since November and has been simply incredible with his putter. The Englishmen has gained at least eight strokes putting in back-to-back weeks and has gained strokes on the green in six straight starts. Hatton has come close recently and it feels like he's finally due to break through and win one of these. His first PGA Tour win came at the Arnold Palmer, a tough Florida swing event, this week he will add to the win total in another challenging Florida event.

Yearly Earnings - $1,281,272
Yearly Cuts Made - 7/9

Owen Vrabel - Jason Kokrak

Alternate -

COMING IN HOT!! After the Cam Smith hit last week I am officially back and looking to take charge of this OAD competition. Jason Kokrak is a perfect pick for this week as he looks to continue his stellar run of form over the past year and a half. In Kokrak's seven appearances at Innisbrook, he has only missed the cut once and has five top 15 finishes, including a runner-up in 2019. His approach play has been spectacular at this event and I expect that to continue this week. He has gained over a stroke putting in his last four events and if he can combine that with his approach play at this event, he should be very relevant come the weekend.

Yearly Earnings - $4,343,764
Yearly Cuts Made - 8/9

Josh Bennett - Louis Oosthuizen

Alternate - Jason Kokrak

Going off the rails a little bit personally with this pick. I’ll start by saying I’m most nervous about him caring or even ending up playing this event, given his withdrawal history and coming in off a very short week (and I’m not sure he plays back-to-back weeks very often?). However, assuming those things do not end up being a problem, I think Louis sets up great here, and I really think he’s burning for another PGA victory. He’s been so good for so long and has been so close so many times, eventually one of these times he’s just going to break through and win. I think those that say “he’s just not a closer” truly don’t realize how hard it is to actually win a golf tournament and I think he will win another one with how well he’s playing. He’s most known for being great at the majors, but he’s also been really good at the Valspar too. No worse than 16^th the last four times he’s played the event, including a 2^nd place finish (shocker) in 2019. He’s got a great chance to add that 2^nd PGA victory this week assuming he ends up teeing it up on Thursday.

Yearly Earnings - $858,286
Yearly Cuts Made - 6/9

Andrew Putters - Justin Thomas

Alternate - Viktor Hovland

I would like to start off by stating that JT is the favorite to win the Valspar, but that is not the only reason I am picking him. He ranks in the top 20 in nearly every measuring metric out there right now over the last 50 rounds. More importantly, he is 5th in SG APP and 2nd in Bogie avoidance (which I believe are the two most important measures this week). He ranks 3rd overall in my model this week coming off a stellar ball-striking performance last week. I could say the same things about Viktor Hovland this week, but I am going with Justin Thomas to win.

Yearly Earnings - $1,832,400
Yearly Cuts Made - 5/9

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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