RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - The Valspar Championship

The PGA RotoBaller staff digs into their One and Done selections for The Valspar Championship. Here are some under-the-radar plays and picks for this week's event.

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the weekly PGA “One and Done” column will be back for the sixth season.

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course, which highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

One and Done Selections - The Valspar Championship

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Joe Idone, Matt Miller, Byron Lindeque, and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Joe Nicely - Sam Burns

Alternate - 

There is no need to get fancy here as Sam Burns and I look to get our first win of the season. Burns has been Mr. Valspar during his young career, racking up two wins and a 68.85 scoring average in the often-tough environment of the Copperhead Course.

It feels as though Burns is a threat to win anytime he shows up to Innisbrook, and that’s especially the case this year, as he’s shown enough flashes of brilliance in 2024 to pile up four top-10 finishes during the West Coast Swing. While volatility from week to week seems to be in the DNA of his game, everything always seems to click for Burns at Valspar.

Yearly Earnings - $1,774,510
Yearly Cuts Made - 9/10

Joe Idone - 

Alternate - 

Pick to come!

Yearly Earnings - $1,607,694
Yearly Cuts Made - 6/10

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?

Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the promo code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!

Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley gets to the window. @RotoBaller

4-0-1 in-tournament H2Hs this week
9-1-1 on the season. https://t.co/bGvwKIWIBu pic.twitter.com/se5s4mWjPi

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) January 16, 2022

Spencer Aguiar - Aaron Rai

Alternate - Cameron Young

From a game theory perspective, I like the idea of zigging when others zag in one-pick contests this week.

You could argue that this is too aggressive for such a build because it goes way off the board and outside the standard selections that would be used when taking on only 30 tournaments a season, but I am willing to take a gamble here because of the way Rai is trending in all the critical areas of my sheet.

The 29-year-old graded 13th in my model for projected scoring at the Valspar, 17th for weighted proximity, and has found himself gaining with his irons in five of seven and from his driver in 10 of 12.

I believe there is a genuine reason he was one of the significant movers on the board last week at the Players Championship, and while I don't think he necessarily delivered entirely on that expectation after finishing 35th, this is a much better course for him to reach his full potential because of the weaker field and solid returns for weighted scoring that I found for him when running my model.

If nothing else, you will be relatively unique with this choice.

Yearly Earnings - $5,209,299
Yearly Cuts Made - 10/10

Matt Miller - Sepp Straka

Yearly Earnings - $2,114,923
Yearly Cuts Made - 9/10

Byron Lindeque - Sam Burns

I have good news and bad news. The bad news is that it took me up until the PLAYERS to forget to submit my OAD selections. The good news, I would have played Max Homa, and $54k is not going to hurt me that bad in the long run. He just stunk it up after R1. Moving on.

This week I am going to lean into one of my two outrights. I love Sam Burns course history, but with winds picking up, I may favor my other outright, who is the reigning Champion Golfer of the year. Harman is coming off a week at the PLAYERS where his T2 finish saw him eclipse his best week (+6.2) on approach by almost three full shots (+9.04). By my account, this was the 89th best week of iron play since my database started in 2017 (30,000 rounds). If we can see the irons continue to fire, even at 80% of what we have seen the last two weeks, his short game and his accuracy off the tee should compliment his scorching iron play beautifully!

Yearly Earnings - $1,556,189
Yearly Cuts Made - 9/10

Mia The Model - Nick Taylor

Alternate - Eric Cole

Byron T20

TeeOff T20

Aggregated Results

***The top two selections are taken as the picks.

All previous selections are supposed to be removed. Only Byron followed the rules.

Randomization:

Let us know what you think of her chances this week!

Yearly Earnings -$6,368,214
Yearly Cuts Made - 9/10

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

  Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt

— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks

Featured Sportsbook Promo Offers

All new sign-ups get a free year of RotoBaller's Premium Pass for all sports ($450 value)! Check out all of the sportsbooks and their bonus offers: