RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - The Genesis Invitational

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For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and FanDuel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course which highlights the best fits for the week's course. And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

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One and Done Selections - The Genesis Invitational

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Andrew Putters, Josh Bennett, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Joe Nicely - Justin Thomas

Alternate - Adam Scott

My strategy of utilizing elite players early in the year finally paid off - to an extent - last week in Phoenix when Xander Schauffele nabbed a T10 worth almost half a mill. After the start I’ve had to the season, I’ll take it.

Another monster prize pool is at stake this week at the Genesis Invitational, an event that needs no help being of elevated stature. The best players in the world are assembled on a Riviera layout that is one of the PGA Tour’s most iconic stops each year.

In keeping with my all-out strategy, I’ll be firing another elite player at this huge tournament. Justin Thomas has been a bit iffy to start the year, but found a nice groove last week at the WMPO, charging up the leaderboard with a six-under par final round. JT’s ball striking was firing on all cylinders and he gained a ridiculous 12.1 strokes T2G. He’s had some close calls at Riv in the past and I love where is game is for this year’s edition.

Yearly Earnings - $845,770
Yearly Cuts Made - 4/5

Josh Bennett - 

Alternate - 

Yearly Earnings - $521,683
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/5

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Spencer Aguiar - Xander Schauffele

Alternate - Tony Finau

We are all trying to figure out the optimal way to handle designated versus un-designated events, and it goes without saying that I have made a mess of that strategy early in the season. In fairness, it isn't as if I have burned useable choices to the ground, which would be the less preferred strategy, but we have had a lot of weeks of grabbing options as defensive plays over anything else.

With all that being said, we have to start taking a stand at some point, and I will make what I consider to be my first big move of the season by grabbing Xander Schauffele -- a golfer my model believed was the top win equity person in the field. The 29-year-old out of California graded in the top 10 when running six of the seven categories I ran this week, and his first-place grade for weighted short-game made him one of only two golfers (Max Homa) to crack the top 20 for both short-game and weighted tee-to-green.

Sure, the season has gotten off to a slow start, but a top finish here has the potential to change the entire trajectory of this season around.

Yearly Earnings - $548,375
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/5

Byron Lindeque - Tommy Fleetwood

The Ketchup Kings continue to make cuts, but doing so, cut us deep, with Tom Kim losing six strokes to the field (T50) over the weekend. The Korean Killer reverted back to the Korean Kid that he indeed is, at the tender age of 20, which is fine as he has been playing at a level beyond his years and we can’t fault him for having a messy weekend every now and then. I blame him getting mic’d up as the downfall of the weekend, as he hit a sensational shot, closer than anybody that day, then missed a 5 footer for eagle and then the wheels fell off. Ugh.

However, no tournament nudges us closer to a fresh start than the “Genesis”, which is where we will be embracing one of the field’s best short game specialists, a recent winner on the Euro tour, and somebody who finished T5 and T4 in two majors last year. This week’s field strength and course difficulty has me believing that we want golfers who have played well at majors in the past. Tommy Fleetwood is that guy. He is 125-1 on the betting market and I don’t anticipate too many people leaning on him this week. 

What intrigues me most about Fleetwood, are his two wins at the Nedbank Challenge in my motherland of South Africa. He has been crowned king of Africa’s major twice, succeeding on a course that is comprised of Kikuyu grass, which we will see at The Riviera Country Club this week. His game is not peaking, but his ball striking has been consistently impressive of late, with the putter letting him down a little. If he can build some momentum with a few chip-ins and clutch par saves, Tommy can climb us up the OAD rankings while we sip on our tea and crumpets, celebrating a brilliant British victory at Riviera. 

Yearly Earnings - $1,364,157
Yearly Cuts Made - 4/5

Andrew Putters - 

Alternate - 

Yearly Earnings - $412,370
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/5

Mia The Model - Viktor Hovland

Alternate - Jon Rahm

Byron T20

TeeOff T20

Aggregated Results

One of the significant differences you will notice is that I attached the aforementioned percent weight to each player when I randomized the list for the week. That means an option like Xander Schauffele got rewarded for being a better option for our models (which we see with his 11% chance) all the way down to the bottom of our board in Viktor Hovland, Shane Lowry and Jordan Spieth – three golfers that received 2.5% of the projected pick equity.

We agreed on randomizing the list five times to settle on the name, and Mia has decided she wants to roll with our longshot of Viktor Hovland this week as the selection and Jon Rahm as the alternate.

Let us know what you think of her chances this week!

Yearly Earnings - $1,690,300
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/5

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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