RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

10 months ago by Spencer Aguiar

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One and Done Selections - The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar, Joe Idone, Matt Miller, Byron Lindeque and our special guest will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

Joe Nicely - Jordan Spieth

Alternate -

Everybody is well aware of Spieth’s dominance at Augusta National but he’s been just as good at Pebble Beach. He won the 2015 edition of this event and has several other “near misses” that have resulted in three additional top-four finishes at Pebble.

Set to make just his second start of 2024, Spieth looked sharp en route to a T3 at the Sentry, an outing where he led the field in SG: Putting. While there are undoubtedly some heavy hitters in this “Signature Event”, I look for the three-time major winner to be firmly in the mix on the weekend.

Yearly Earnings - $170,082
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/3

Joe Idone - Jason Day

Alternate -

Pebble Beach was always one of the unique stops on the PGA Tour which leaned heavily on course history because the same players always seemed to fare well year over year. Why should that change just because the event added Signature Status and a substantial influx of highly ranked studs? I don't believe it should all that much, and Jason Day has owned Pebble Beach.

Day has recorded six different top-7 finishes in the last 9 years at this event. He routinely takes advantage of the openness off the tee to leverage his elite wedge play and putter. I love the fact that he has plenty of early 2024 tournament reps currently under his belt and I think it is wise to take full advantage of his form this week to come up with a good finish, and hopefully a WIN at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

Yearly Earnings -$175,127
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/3

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Hayden Buckley -118 over Vincent Whaley gets to the window. @RotoBaller

4-0-1 in-tournament H2Hs this week
9-1-1 on the season. https://t.co/bGvwKIWIBu pic.twitter.com/se5s4mWjPi
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) January 16, 2022

Spencer Aguiar - Collin Morikawa

Alternate - Xander Schauffele

Here is the thing: weather has a real chance of turning this into a nightmare situation for everyone in the field. I get we can look into extreme conditions and how players have performed in the past when given that sort of a test, but it is not as if anyone is going to naturally thrive or be guaranteed success if the wind gets to 50 MPH+.

Obviously, that is the one problem for OAD contests since everything is final when you use a player. Wasting someone when you don't know the actual conditions is concerning, but I am going to go with the player in my model who graded as the best iron proximity player from 0-125 yards and hope for the best from there.

Morikawa's best surface has been Poa in the past if we are concerned with the putter, and game theory will give us a relatively clean shot at the American since I can't imagine many gamers are going to go this route after his missed cut at the Farmers.

That is not necessarily ideal to get him entering the week with questionable form, but my argument against that being a worry would be that Morikawa hasn't lost strokes in back-to-back starts off-the-tee since the 2021 BMW and Tour Championship events. I don't think he does here either, so if everyone is hitting their second shots from the same distance (a range where Morikawa laps the field), it felt only natural to use him when I didn't plan to in many other spots this year.

Yearly Earnings - $475,832
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/3

Matt Miller -

Yearly Earnings - $383,935
Yearly Cuts Made - 3/3

Byron Lindeque - Tom Kim

We were a week too early on Matthie Pavon, who netted us $30k at the AMEX but then went on to win the Farmers… we did not see him playing well there anyway, as who could ever project somebody gaining 8 strokes putting. Sahith Theegala on the other hand, had his lowest round of golf on the South course and then once he made the cut, completely forgot how to hit an iron. Chalk him up to win this week?

The courses Tom Kim typically plays the best at are the ones that come after the OAD season is over with. We want to try catch the field completely off guard with Tom who is admittedly entering the week with very little form. But the course fit here is about as ideal as we could hope for the long iron wonder kid, who last won the Shriners at a course that also prioritized wedge play, both of which Tom is very good at. We have not seen too many instances of Tom on Poa and maybe he is actually good at putting on that surface. Time will tell, but we could see him win this thing as the only people on Tom in Pebble.

Yearly Earnings - $53,100
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/3

Mia The Model - Justin Thomas

Alternate - Xander Schauffele

Byron T20

TeeOff T20

*** All previous picks removed!

Aggregated Results

***The top two selections are taken as the picks.

Randomization:

Mia loves herself some Xander this week.

Let us know what you think of her chances this week!

Yearly Earnings -$300,230
Yearly Cuts Made - 2/3

Running Totals

Follow along here on the OAD Spreadsheet!

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