X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Later-Round Category Targets - WHIP

Welcome back to RotoBaller and my later-round category targets series, thanks for being here. In this article, we're going to talk about some middle and late-round starting pitchers that can help your team in the WHIP category.

It's important to note that there is a ton of overlap with WHIP and ERA, and I've already made my case for who I think are the best targets for ERA help late in the draft. This post will just piggy-back off of that one, so be sure to go check that one out before you proceed.

The question I've been asking as I've done this post series is this: what skills most correlate to the category in question? With ERA, we found that K-BB%, HR/9, and average exit velocity on fly-balls were categories to look at when trying to predict future ERA values. For WHIP, the most correlated category is once again strikeout-to-walk ratio.

 

K-BB%

This is a repeat from the ERA post, but it must be said since this category is the best predictor of WHIP. If you just look at the overall leaders in this category, you just have a list of pitchers with the highest ADP for 2021. When we filter out the most expensive pitchers, here is the leaderboard

Pitcher ADP K-BB%
Stephen Strasburg 71 22.7%
Charlie Morton 119 22.4%
Carlos Carrasco 66 21.7%
Kevin Gausman 132 20.8%
Chris Paddack 109 20.7%
Andrew Heaney 203 20.2%
Zack Greinke 108 19.9%
Domingo German 301 19.9%
Jake Odorizzi 282 18.7%
Frankie Montas 151 18.5%
Michael Pineda 227 18.3%
Joe Musgrove 130 17.8%
Tyler Mahle 170 17.7%
Ryan Yarbrough 246 16.2%
Griffin Canning 289 15.9%
Mike Minor 288 15.8%

One way that WHIP is a bit different than ERA is that walks factor a little more heavily into the equation. After all, walks is half of the numerator of WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched). Therefore it's worth taking a look at the pitchers who have posted the lowest walk rates over the last two seasons, forgetting about strikeouts for a minute. I left out intentional walks when calculating my walk rate, so that is why it might be a tad different than what you've seen elsewhere.

Pitcher ADP BB%
Zack Greinke 110 3.4%
Kyle Hendricks 86 3.6%
Ryan Yarbrough 252 3.6%
Hyun-Jin Ryu 75 3.9%
Michael Pineda 231 4.8%
Madison Bumgarner 381 5.0%
Chris Paddack 111 5.1%
Shane Bieber 9 5.3%
Clayton Kershaw 34 5.4%
Max Scherzer 29 5.4%
Zack Wheeler 93 5.4%
Walker Buehler 20 5.5%
Marco Gonzales 165 5.5%
John Means 214 5.6%
German Marquez 170 5.6%
Jacob deGrom 7 5.7%

The guy from this list that I would actually recommend all things considered when thinking about strong WHIP value in the draft would be Greinke, Yarbrough, Pineda, Bumgarner, Paddack, Gonzales, and Means. All of these guys see their draft stock brought down a bit by their lack of strikeout ability and/or health concerns, but they all make up for the lower strikeouts with even lower walk rates, which will help keep their WHIPs down.

 

Batted Ball Types

The other part of the numerator in the calculation here is hits allowed. In the case of WHIP, giving up a single is just as harmful as giving up a home run.

The different batted ball types have wildly different batting averages. I broke them down here:

BB Type AVG
Ground Ball .262
Line Drive .664
Fly Ball .275
Pop Up .013

You can see that the sweet spot for base hits is line drives (between 10 and 25 degrees). Hitters hit .664 on line drives, so if we find the pitchers that give up the least line drives, we should be able to find some good WHIP candidates. I've taken the last seasons of data and made a "Non-LD Rate", which is just ground-ball rate plus fly-ball rate plus pop-up rate. Here are the leaders:

Pitcher ADP Non-LD%
Tejay Antone 342 15.4
Ian Anderson 96 17.3
Carlos Martinez 394 20.3
Sixto Sanchez 133 20.5
Luis Castillo 25 20.7
Elieser Hernandez 244 20.8
Eduardo Rodriguez 229 21.3
Clayton Kershaw 31 21.4
Brady Singer 232 22.6
Caleb Smith 311 22.7
Marcus Stroman 213 23.1
Nate Pearson 252 23.1
Sonny Gray 65 23.1
Mike Minor 288 23.1
Trevor Bauer 15 23.2
Tyler Glasnow 50 23.4

From this list, the standouts for me are Antone, Anderson, Martinez, Sanchez, Hernandez, Singer, Pearson, and Minor. All of these pitchers, save Singer, are guys I believe can generate enough strikeouts to keep a helpful WHIP going even if they start giving up more line drives. In the case of Singer, I just firmly believe he will continue to generate weak contact which will help him combat the low strikeout rate.

 

Putting It All Together

We're looking at three things here: strikeouts, walks, and avoiding line drives. I got this information for every pitcher that's faced at least 500 batters over the last two seasons and averaged out their ranks in each category to see who had the best overall numbers. Here are the overall top 10.

Pitcher ADP Non-LD% BB% K%
Justin Verlander 747 77.5% 5.0% 35.4%
Clayton Kershaw 34 78.6% 5.3% 27.1%
Jacob deGrom 7 75.6% 5.7% 33.5%
Brandon Woodruff 35 76.4% 6.1% 29.8%
Gerrit Cole 6 75.1% 5.9% 38.0%
Stephen Strasburg 73 76.1% 6.2% 29.4%
Chris Sale 249 75.0% 6.0% 35.6%
Noah Syndergaard 329 73.3% 5.7% 24.6%
Chris Paddack 111 74.7% 5.2% 26.0%
Shane Bieber 9 76.8% 5.2% 33.0%

The only names that are consequential for our purposes here are Strasburg and Paddack, as they are the only healthy pitchers on the list with ADPs below 50. Strasburg obviously has major health issues of his own which makes his draft cost make sense, but Paddack may have fallen too far. There are fine questions about whether or not Paddack can really be an ace, but right now he's priced more like an SP3. He really has excelled in walk rate in his young career while posting an above-average strikeout rate and avoiding the line drive to boot. He's a great option to help you in WHIP after pick 100.

To give some more names, I've filtered out all SP that are either injured or in the top 50 in ADP, here's the result:

Pitcher ADP Non-LD% BB% K%
Pablo Lopez 127 76.1 5.8 21.8
Joe Musgrove 133 75.2 6.1 24.0
Charlie Morton 126 74.8 7.0 29.4
Max Fried 65 75.3 6.8 24.2
Tyler Mahle 175 75.3 7.3 25.0
Hyun-Jin Ryu 74 73.6 3.9 23.6
Eduardo Rodriguez 232 78.7 8.5 24.9
Mike Minor 307 76.9 7.9 23.8
James Paxton 256 76.2 8.6 29.3
Patrick Corbin 142 75.2 7.5 26.4

I really, really like this list of names for 2021. These are all very skilled pitchers going too late (maybe with the exception of Fried and Ryu who are priced right since they had awesome seasons last year), and they all give you a very good probability of lowering your team's WHIP with a cheap draft pick.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ja'Marr Chase7 hours ago

Erupts In Week 10
Joe Burrow8 hours ago

Has Another Strong Performance On Thursday
Baltimore Ravens9 hours ago

Kyle Hamilton Won't Return On Thursday Night
Tony Pollard10 hours ago

Sits Out On Thursday
Darius Slayton11 hours ago

Officially Out For Germany Game
Mansur Abdul-Malik12 hours ago

A Big Favorite At UFC Vegas 100
Luana Pinheiro12 hours ago

Could Be Fighting For Job At UFC Vegas 100
Gillian Robertson12 hours ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Vegas 100
Reinier De ridder12 hours ago

Reinier de Ridder Makes UFC Debut At UFC Vegas 100
Gerald Meerschaert12 hours ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 100
Mike Evans12 hours ago

Another DNP For Mike Evans On Thursday
Christian McCaffrey12 hours ago

Expected To Make Season Debut In Week 10
13 hours ago

Jeff Hoffman Could Enter Starting Rotation In 2025
Ja Morant13 hours ago

Ruled Out For Friday
Christian McCaffrey13 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
13 hours ago

Willy Adames Receives Offers From Mets And Dodgers
Chris Olave13 hours ago

Misses Another Practice
Zach LaVine13 hours ago

Officially Out On Thursday
Andrew Peeke13 hours ago

Out Week-To-Week
Giannis Antetokounmpo13 hours ago

Good For Thursday's Game
T.J. McFarland13 hours ago

Re-Signs With The A's
Brandon Miller13 hours ago

Tagged As Probable For Friday
Mattias Janmark13 hours ago

Considered Day-To-Day With Undisclosed Injury
A.J. Brown13 hours ago

Looks Ready For Week 10
Iván Herrera13 hours ago

Ivan Herrera, Pedro Pages To Split Opportunities Behind The Plate
Miles Bridges14 hours ago

Won't Play On Friday
Alex Turcotte14 hours ago

Remains Sidelined Thursday
14 hours ago

Alex Bregman Could Play Second Base In 2025
Tee Higgins14 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday Night
Zach LaVine14 hours ago

Doubtful For Thursday's Game
Artem Zub14 hours ago

Rejoins Senators Lineup Thursday
Devin Vassell14 hours ago

Could Make Season Debut On Saturday
Tyler Seguin14 hours ago

Expected Back Versus Blackhawks
Wendell Carter Jr.14 hours ago

Listed As Out For Friday
Brayden Point14 hours ago

Remains Out On Thursday
Andre Jackson Jr.14 hours ago

Expected To Start On Thursday
Cale Makar14 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Thursday
15 hours ago

Red Sox, Orioles Looking At Teoscar Hernandez
Kyle Pitts15 hours ago

Remains Limited Participant On Thursday
15 hours ago

Mets To Meet With Juan Soto Soon
Drake London15 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
Aleksei Kolosov15 hours ago

Injured In Pregame Skate On Thursday
Xavier Legette15 hours ago

Aggravates Past Injury, Expected To Play On Sunday
Jake Walman15 hours ago

Will Not Play Thursday
Austin Seibert15 hours ago

Limited On Thursday
Anthony Mantha15 hours ago

Headed To Injured Reserve
Auston Matthews15 hours ago

' Status Up In The Air
Brian Robinson Jr.15 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
Matvei Michkov16 hours ago

Will Be A Healthy Scratch On Thursday
Keaton Mitchell16 hours ago

Making Season Debut On Thursday
DeVonta Smith17 hours ago

Returns To Practice On Thursday
Adam Thielen17 hours ago

Not Participating In Thursday's Practice
Darius Slayton17 hours ago

Not Expected To Make Trip To Germany
Keon Coleman17 hours ago

A "DNP" On Thursday
Garrett Crochet18 hours ago

An Offseason Trade Candidate
18 hours ago

Ha-Seong Kim Drawing Plenty Of Buzz At GM Meetings
19 hours ago

Willy Adames Willing To Play A Different Position
Tyrese Maxey19 hours ago

Expected To Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Dylan Larkin21 hours ago

Bags Two Points In Win Over Chicago
Logan Thompson21 hours ago

Continues Winning Ways With Capitals
Dylan Strome21 hours ago

Stays Hot With Two-Assist Effort
Ivan Barbashev21 hours ago

Records Three Assists Wednesday
Tommy Novak21 hours ago

Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Dylan Holloway21 hours ago

Avoids Serious Injury
Jonathan Mogbo22 hours ago

Exits With Hip Problem Wednesday
Tyrese Maxey22 hours ago

Makes Precautionary Exit Wednesday
Jalen Duren22 hours ago

Considered Day-To-Day With Ankle Injury
Isaiah Collier22 hours ago

Considered Questionable Thursday
Jordan Clarkson22 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Thursday
Joel Embiid22 hours ago

On Track To Make Season Debut On Tuesday
Willson Contreras1 day ago

Will Transition To 1B/DH Role In 2025
Lauri Markkanen1 day ago

Questionable Versus Milwaukee
Giannis Antetokounmpo1 day ago

In Danger Of Missing Another Game
Ja Morant1 day ago

Injures Hamstring, Leaves Game In Third Quarter
Mookie Betts1 day ago

To Play Infield For The Dodgers In 2025
Bradley Beal1 day ago

Active On Wednesday
Josh Giddey1 day ago

To Play On Wednesday
Derek Forbort2 days ago

Out Week-To-Week With A Knee Problem
Bryan Rust2 days ago

Logs Full Practice On Wednesday
Kevin Hayes2 days ago

Misses Practice With An Upper-Body Injury
Royce Lewis2 days ago

Might See More Time At Second Base
2 days ago

Alex Bregman Has Bone Chip Removed From Elbow
Kyle Hendricks2 days ago

Angels Sign Kyle Hendricks
Max Greyserman2 days ago

Earns Highest DraftKings Salary For WWT Championship
Harry Hall2 days ago

In Solid Form Heading To Cabo
PGA2 days ago

Matti Schmid On Fire Ahead Of WWT Championship
Jhonattan Vegas2 days ago

A Safe Play At WWT Championship
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Looks To Contend At WWT Championship
Patrick Fishburn2 days ago

A Volatile Option At El Cardonal
Michael Kim2 days ago

Aims For Back-To-Back Top-10 Finishes At WWT Championship
Charley Hoffman2 days ago

Tough To Trust At WWT Championship
Adam Svensson2 days ago

A Risky Play In Mexico
Daniel Berger2 days ago

Looks To Keep Cuts-Made Streak Alive In Mexico
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Hopes To Steady The Ship At World Wide Technology Championship
San Diego Padres2 days ago

Padres Nearing Contract Extension With Manager Mike Shildt
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2 days ago

Could Be Moved Back To Second Base
2 days ago

Astros Have Had "Productive" Talks With Alex Bregman
3 days ago

Rangers Decline 2025 Option On Andrew Chafin
Camilo Doval3 days ago

Generating Interest
Shohei Ohtani3 days ago

Undergoes Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery
Chandler Phillips3 days ago

Attempts To Keep Final-Round Form This Week
Neal Shipley3 days ago

Past Five Tournaments Make Him An Interesting DFS Option
Austin Eckroat3 days ago

Wants To Shake Off Some More Rust In Mexico
Rico Hoey3 days ago

Needs The Putter To Work In Mexico
J.J. Spaun3 days ago

Tries To Keep Second Half Rolling In Mexico
Sam Stevens3 days ago

Hopes To Continue Riding A Hot Putter In Mexico
Erik Van Rooyen3 days ago

Erik van Rooyen Tries To Defend WWT Title
Lucas Glover3 days ago

Well-Rested Heading Into WWT Championship
Ben Griffin3 days ago

Hopes To Continue Good Form In Mexico
Keith Mitchell3 days ago

An Unappealing Play At World Wide Technology Championship
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Wins At Martinsville And Has Chance To Earn Second Straight Championship
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Penalized At Martinsville, Removed From Championship Four
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Not A Factor At Martinsville And Looks Ahead To Phoenix
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Misses Advancing Through Playoffs Despite Top-Three Finish
Brad Keselowski4 days ago

Has A Solid Top-10 Performance At Martinsville
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Loses Out On Winning At Martinsville
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Drops Decision Matchup
Erin Blanchfield4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Dustin Stoltzfus4 days ago

Gets First-Round Knockout At UFC Edmonton
Marc-Andre Barriault4 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC Edmonton
Trevin Giles4 days ago

Losses Third Fight In A Row
Mike Malott4 days ago

Wins Decision At UFC Edmonton
NASCAR4 days ago

Speeding Penalty Foils Martin Truex Jr.'s Last Realistic Shot At Winning
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Fails To Advance To Championship 4 But Runs Well
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Earns Best Oval Finish at Martinsville
William Byron4 days ago

Tentatively In Championship 4 Pending Ruling On Manufacturer Orders
MMA5 days ago

Ariane Lipski Submitted At UFC Edmonton
Jasmine Jasudavicius5 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado5 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
Brendson Ribeiro5 days ago

Edges Out Split Decision At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi5 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno5 days ago

Dominates At UFC Edmonton
Daniel Suarez5 days ago

Will Start 20th At Martinsville
Zane Smith5 days ago

Might Be An Underrated Value Play For Martinsville
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Is A Top DFS Recommendation For Martinsville Lineups
Joey Logano5 days ago

Will Be One To Watch At Martinsville
Brad Keselowski5 days ago

Should DFS Players Rely On Brad Keselowski For Martinsville Lineups?
Carson Hocevar5 days ago

Is A Great DFS Option For All Martinsville DFS Lineups
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Is Ty Gibbs Worth Rostering At Martinsville This Week For DFS?
Austin Cindric5 days ago

Could Have A Top-20 Performance At Martinsville
William Byron5 days ago

Might Be Usable Only In DFS Tournaments At Martinsville
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster Chris Buescher At Martinsville?
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Expect A Solid Top-10 Performance From Alex Bowman At Martinsville

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP