X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Rookies Expected to Struggle Early in 2020

Antonio Losada highlights some different rookies around the league that might find it hard to produce during the first few weeks of the season, making them avoidable in re-draft leagues and only worth getting through waivers later in the year.

If you know how DFS football works, then you know every week you have the chance to pick the best-looking players for the scheduled slate of games. For those playing season-long leagues, that's not an option. Once you draft your team you must stick to your decisions and only make minimal tweaks through the waiver wire. That's why you need to go for the best options from day one to not lose too much ground earlier in the season. That means that some rookies, although expected to become great players eventually, might take too long to establish themselves in the league to consider them viable in re-draft leagues.

The longer you hesitate on putting a player in your starting lineup, the worse. You don't have many bench spots available, so better to fill them with the best options and make sure all of them can be used as last-minute starters any given week from the first one on. This is often the case with rookie wide receivers and tight ends that might take a few weeks to become important and trusted pieces of an offense.

Today, I'm pointing at a few rookie WRs/TEs that look good in terms of season-long projections but that might take more than a few weeks to establish themselves on their teams prior to becoming true fantasy-point producers. Avoid taking these players in your draft if you don't want to lose a very valuable amount of points during the first games of the season. Let's get to it!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

WR Henry Ruggs III - (WR, Las Vegas Raiders)

The Raiders spent a top-12 draft pick on Ruggs earlier this offseason and he surely looks poised to become one of the go-to options on offense starting in Week 1. Las Vegas isn't exactly stacked at the receiver position, featuring the likes of Hunter Renfrow, Tyrell Williams, and Nelson Agholor among their best pass-catchers, and also Darren Waller (along with Jason Witten) at the tight end position. That should make Ruggs one of -- if not the -- bests wide receivers in tow.

But Ruggs has some things going against him. First of all, he suffered an accident a few weeks ago and although he should be ready for training camp and seems to not carry any damage there are still doubts surrounding his current situation. Then, although the WR corps doesn't look deep nor features any elite talent, that could also mean that the share of targets will be more balanced than otherwise. Finally, and until he proves to be as good in the pros as he was at the collegiate level, it's fair to expect Derek Carr to target other pieces with whom he has built a rapport already (namely Waller and Renfrow) rather than throw too many balls to Ruggs.

If Ruggs doesn't rack up points for a few weeks to start the year you might be losing some precious points and putting your season in danger of falling apart before you realize. In the past five seasons, only four rookie-WRs were able to average more than 15 PPR points during the first four weeks of those years.

 

Justin Jefferson - (WR, Minnesota Vikings)

Another first-round draft pick, Jefferson enters the season as the potential WR2 of a Vikings offense that just lost its most productive receiver from 2019 in Stefon Diggs and is also looking at a possible holdout from stud RB Dalvin Cook to start the season. Jefferson, drafted 22nd overall, will have Adam Thielen as his main rival for targets at the receiver position. As far as tight end goes, though, he might find himself fighting for passes with the likes of Irv Smith Jr. and Kyle Rudolph in two-TE sets early in the year.

Don't forget either that the Vikings are a run-first team and that QB Kirk Cousins kept it lower-than-low last year when it came to passing volume numbers. PFF projects Jefferson to finish 2020 with 79 targets and 624 yards (four TD) for a WR57 season-end rank. That doesn't sound bad for a FLEX option, but if Jefferson (as one could expect) takes at least one-quarter of the season to establish himself in Minny then he shouldn't be more than waiver wire fodder.

Cousins' track-record with rookie WRs/TEs isn't that good, either. All of Bisi Johnson, Irv Smith, Tyler Conklin, Josh Doctson, and Jamison Crowder averaged five or fewer targets during their first four weeks in the league playing under Cousins, and none averaged more than 7.5 PPR in those games combined.

 

Cole Kmet - (TE, Chicago Bears)

While the Bears added TE Jimmy Graham after signing him to a rather lucrative deal (which looks like an overpayment) earlier this year, the future at the position will surely go through Cole Kmet. Chicago spent a second-round pick in the Notre Dame product making Kmet the first TE off the 2020 draft board. The problem with rookie tight ends, though, is that it usually takes them some time for them to find their footing among pros. On top of that and in Kmet's case, add a veteran tight end (Graham) starting the year as the TE1 of Chicago's offense.

Just looking at data from the last 10 years, the only two rookie TEs to play in the first four weeks of their first seasons in the NFL and average at least 10 PPR points in those games were Aaron Hernandez (10.8) in 2010 and Evan Engram (11.2) in 2017. Other 21 TEs played four games but missed on the PPG mark, and 74 other players at the position didn't even make it to four games...

Put everything together (the Bears depth chart, the ongoing starting-QB battle, Kmet's rookie year, the history at the position for rookies) and things don't look too good for Kmet to start the year with a bang.

 

K.J. Hamler - (WR, Denver Broncos)

If there is a word to define Hamler, that could be "burner". Hamler, one of the fastest and better deep threats of the entire 2020 NFL draft, was picked 46th overall by Denver just months ago after the team also drafted Jerry Jeudy in the first round. The Broncos are undergoing a facelift on their receiving corps, which will feature five players entering their third season or less in WRs Courtland Sutton, DaeSean Hamilton and TE Noah Fant, and three freshmen in WRs Jeudy and Hamler and TE Albert Okwuegbunam.

With such a young offense (which also includes sophomore-QB Drew Lock) it is hard to predict what will happen in Denver. The most logical path for Lock to follow would be the one going (mostly) Sutton, Fant, and Jeudy's way. Sutton and Fant are already proved players, and Jeudy should get the second-most targets among receivers. Hamler's profile as a long-pass catcher should make him the go-to option on those routes, but these are volatile plays with upside but hard to pull off.

Hamler is also one of the smallest rookie receivers of the past 20 years. In that span, only 42 rookies weighing in at 180 or fewer pounds have played at least one game, and just 13 of them logged a snap in the first four games of their rookie years. Only three among that group (Tavon Austin, DeSean Jackson, and Marquise Brown) averaged more than 7.5 PPR points in those four games.

 

Antonio Gibson - (RB/WR, Washington Redskins)

Gibson was Washington's second pick in the 2020 draft (66th overall) after selecting DE Chase Young with the second overall pick. It is still unclear which role will Gibson play in the NFL, as it is not clear if he's a running back, a receiver, or a true hybrid capable of taking on both positions' duties. PFF has Gibson projected to receive 57 targets, which are the third-most in Washington's offense behind Terry McLaurin and Steven Sims Jr.

As it is the case in Denver (read above), Washington has a very young receiving corps in which second-year options should be those getting the most chances, even more considering second-year man Dwayne Haskins Jr. will be the starter at QB.

The doubts surrounding the role of Gibson in the offense, the use Washington will make of him (running back in an already clogged backfield? receiver? one-off specialist returner?...), and the fact that he's a newcomer doesn't bode well at least for Gibson's first few weeks as a pro. He could be a boom option in your lineup, but the high chances at an early set of "bust" performances cut his upside in half.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Dustin Wolf2 hours ago

Snaps Skid On Thursday
Wyatt Johnston2 hours ago

Scores In Sixth-Straight Game
Linus Ullmark2 hours ago

Stops 31 Shots In Victory
Nick Suzuki2 hours ago

Has Goal, Assist On Thursday
Leon Draisaitl2 hours ago

Can Not Finish Thursday's Contest
John Gibson3 hours ago

Exits Early On Thursday
Geraldo Perdomo3 hours ago

Hits Grand Slam On Thursday
Tony Gonsolin3 hours ago

Picks Up Strikeout In Rehab Game
Zach Neto3 hours ago

Homers In Rehab Game
Kristian Campbell3 hours ago

Homers On Thursday
Joel Payamps3 hours ago

Picks Up Save On Thursday
Nestor Cortes3 hours ago

Jr. Picks Up Win Over Reds
Trent Grisham3 hours ago

Homers In Win On Thursday
Jazz Chisholm Jr.3 hours ago

Homers On Thursday
Luke Weaver3 hours ago

Picks Up Save On Thursday
Aaron Judge3 hours ago

Homers Again
Dalton Rushing8 hours ago

Wears The Platinum Sombrero On Thursday
Shohei Ohtani9 hours ago

Still Without Timeline To Face Live Hitters
Jordan Lawlar9 hours ago

Collects Three Hits, Three RBI On Thursday
Carlos Carrasco9 hours ago

Strikes Out Five, Picks Up Win
Merrill Kelly9 hours ago

Gets Lit Up By Yankees
Luis F. Castillo9 hours ago

Expected To Start Friday
Owen Caissie9 hours ago

Triples In Three-Hit Game At Triple-A
Weston Wilson10 hours ago

Set To Face Live Pitching
Ranger Suárez10 hours ago

Ranger Suarez Could Throw Live Batting Practice This Week
Brady House10 hours ago

Belts Home Run No. 1 On Thursday
Nick Lodolo10 hours ago

Delivers Quality Start
Nikola Jokić11 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Expected To Play On Friday
Jonathan Kuminga12 hours ago

Back On Thursday Night
Miles Boykin13 hours ago

Heading To Chicago
Jalen Wilson14 hours ago

Sidelined On Thursday
Baker Mayfield14 hours ago

Tampa Bay Restructures Baker Mayfield's Deal
Case Keenum14 hours ago

Chicago Signs Case Keenum To One-Year Deal
Kyshawn George14 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Richaun Holmes14 hours ago

Out Versus Magic
Khris Middleton14 hours ago

Out Again Thursday Versus Magic
D'Angelo Russell15 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Noah Clowney15 hours ago

Done For Rest Of The Season
Jordan Poole15 hours ago

Unavailable For Thursday
Scottie Barnes15 hours ago

Available On Thursday
Jonathan Drouin15 hours ago

Martin Necas, Jonathan Drouin Unavailable Thursday
Tyrese Maxey15 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of Season
Alexandar Georgiev15 hours ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Henry Thrun15 hours ago

Returns From Nine-Game Absence Thursday
Olli Määttä15 hours ago

Olli Maatta Returns To Utah Lineup Thursday
Dylan Guenther16 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Anthony Duclair16 hours ago

Takes Leave Of Absence
Alex Pietrangelo16 hours ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Brady Tkachuk16 hours ago

Out On Thursday
Trey McBride16 hours ago

Cardinals Making Trey McBride The Highest-Paid Tight End In NFL History
Geno Smith17 hours ago

Raiders, Geno Smith Agree To Two-Year Extension
18 hours ago

Tyler Shough Could Be Day 2 Pick In NFL Draft
Dallas Cowboys18 hours ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
New York Giants19 hours ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Dallas Cowboys19 hours ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Washington Commanders19 hours ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs20 hours ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints20 hours ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Joe Milton III23 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Anfernee Simons24 hours ago

Could Be Absent Again Thursday
Scoot Henderson24 hours ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Scottie Barnes24 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday
Immanuel Quickley24 hours ago

Takes Thursday Off
Jakob Poeltl24 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Damian Lillard1 day ago

May Return To Action Sooner Than Expected
Giannis Antetokounmpo1 day ago

Likely To Suit Up Thursday
LeBron James1 day ago

Probable Thursday
Jared McCann1 day ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake1 day ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin1 day ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov1 day ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe1 day ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin1 day ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Los Angeles Chargers1 day ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
1 day ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals1 day ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell1 day ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1 day ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday2 days ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets2 days ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford2 days ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Evgeni Malkin2 days ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
2 days ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
2 days ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
Cameron Young2 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners3 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay3 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland3 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia3 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti3 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jordan Spieth3 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp3 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim3 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood3 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau3 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole3 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens3 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy4 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman4 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR4 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland4 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober4 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall4 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara4 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez4 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales4 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez4 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas4 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez4 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson4 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron4 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones4 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry5 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano5 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece5 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott5 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney5 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Best Bets: Week 2 Picks

Well, the opening week is always full of curveballs, and 2025 was no exception. We actually saw the Birmingham Stallions lose a game, looking bad in the process. Overall, I went 3-3-1 on spreads and over/unders last week, so a bit inconvenient that neither parlay worked out. It is a short season, so the pressure […]


Isaiah Bond - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Sleepers: 5 Undervalued Draft Targets

We all know at this point who the top names are heading into the 2025 NFL Draft. Ashton Jeanty will be the dynasty rookie RB1. Tetairoa McMillan will be the rookie WR1. But fantasy leagues aren't won just by getting a top-2 or three rookie pick and grabbing the best guys. Rookie drafts are also […]


Ja'Marr Chase fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Two-Round Start-Up Dynasty Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single Quarterback

The players you select in the early rounds of dynasty fantasy football start-up drafts have a massive impact on the chances of your team winning for many seasons after the first one. So it's crucial to nail these picks, and there are a few ways you can do that. Obviously, no one's being selected in […]


Tetairoa McMillan - College Football DFS Lineup Picks, NCAA CFB, NFL Draft Prospect

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single-QB

Thankfully, fans and fantasy football players only have to wait a few more weeks for the 2025 NFL Draft. That means dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are right around the corner. While dynasty fantasy outlooks for the NFL Draft prospects will change between today and the end of April, it’s time for another dynasty rookie […]


Davante Adams - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For Wide Receivers On New Teams: Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Christian Kirk, and more

The 2025 NFL offseason has been full of breaking news alerts. Last year, all the action was at the running back position, with Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs changing teams. However, all the action has been at the wide receiver position this offseason. Some big-name wide receivers remained with their current teams. Tee […]


Bijan Robinson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Football Running Back Preview: Targets & Sleepers For 2025 Drafts

While the NFL is in the middle of its offseason, the fantasy football world never takes a break. Much in the fantasy world will change between now and the start of the regular season. Yet, let’s take an early look at the running back position for 2025 fantasy football drafts. Below are three early-round studs, […]


Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For QBs On New Teams: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, more

The NFL quarterback carousel gets to spin every offseason, and plenty of QBs have already found new homes ahead of the 2025 NFL season. For fantasy football, a player's surrounding team is extremely important, so it's worth looking into each of their outlooks with their new squads. There are still a few unsigned QBs, but […]


Shedeur Sanders - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex/Two-QB

The 2025 NFL Draft is still less than 30 days away. Therefore, dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are nearly here. Much will change between now and the NFL Draft. However, it’s time for another dynasty rookie mock draft. This rookie mock draft is a two-round, 12-team, and two-quarterbacks. For a deeper dive into dynasty strategy, […]


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Offseason Team Needs: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers

The AFC North, comprised of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers, sent two teams to the playoffs in 2024 and had one on the cusp of a playoff berth. The Ravens have the best roster of the four teams by a long shot. The Steelers have a solid defensive group, and […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]