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The quarterback position is notoriously difficult to evaluate. A big reason for this is that it's the position that requires the most information processing, awareness of what's happening on the field both before and after the snap, and the ability to react to many different types of situations.
As such, it's incredibly difficult to find a franchise QB. There are simply so few people on the planet that possess the athletic ability, size, and mental acumen to successfully play signal-caller at the highest level. It's also why they get paid so much damn money! But that's a different story altogether.
As such, it's difficult to evaluate which players the multi-billion dollar industry the NFL will whiff on, but I'll try to do it anyway because it's very important for your fantasy football teams. Fantasy is more important than real life, after all. Let's dive in.
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QB Jaxson Dart
He is the best quarterback in this year's draft class, because he's the best decision-maker, the best under pressure, and has the best "QB mind" of any signal-caller in this year's draft.
What's between the ears is what's most important at this position, yet both the NFL and consensus take the "we can fix him" approach, which usually doesn't work for football players and never works in dating either.
Miami quarterback Cam Ward and Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders don't play nearly as well under pressure, which is the biggest and best litmus test of QB play at the next level. While the pressure-to-sack ratio is a big red-flag stat, it can be misleading, as many quarterbacks can choose to hang back in the pocket, knowing when it's worth it to try to wait for big plays to open up.
Jaxson Dart led the QB class in big time throw percentage in 2024. pic.twitter.com/c7NzT9igvV
— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) February 13, 2025
Dart made the most out of his situation with very little, as his WR1, Tre Harris, suffered through injuries and missed a significant part of the season. Yet Dart finished the year with 4,279 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, and just six interceptions. Most notably, he demolished the rest of the field in yards per pass attempt, averaging 10.8 yards gained every time he threw the ball.
That's a ridiculous clip. And he did so against the best possible competition since he played in the SEC. That's not something you should overlook. He didn't have a ton to work with, but still played at an elite level. Yet he's being overlooked. If he had Travis Hunter on his team, you have to imagine things would be different.
Every QB prospect since 2014 that has averaged at least 360 total ypg in a season with a clean pocket accuracy rate > 70%..
Joe Burrow, LSU
CJ Stroud, Ohio State
Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss
Baker Mayfield, Oklahomapic.twitter.com/p5p8WXzqP6— Adam Carter (@SmartfootbalI) February 15, 2025
Dart's tape is fantastic. It not only displays fantastic accuracy but great consistency and a deep knowledge of the game that you don't see on Ward's or Sanders' tape to nearly the same degree. QB is a position that requires a lot of subtle knowledge about things that aren't required of other positions.
More back shoulder stuff from Jaxson Dart.
This time vs LSU. Internal clock works perfectly as he gets rid of the ball in time to beat the pressure from his left.
25 yard strike to the location where only his WR can make the play pic.twitter.com/SkZkLhcgMT
— Luke Grant (@LukeGrant7) February 17, 2025
One of these things is his internal clock under pressure, as described in the X post above. Ward and Sanders were much poorer under pressure, and when the heat is on at the next level, they'll likely struggle massively. That doesn't help when you get drafted to a bad team, as the top-rated quarterbacks often do.
I'd rather have Dart in all my leagues than any other QB in this class, yet he's being drafted often after Alabama QB Jalen Milroe, who is not good enough to succeed at the next level, but at least can run it decently. You should draft Dart wherever you can.
QB Kyle McCord
Outside of Dart, the class as a whole is mostly pretty bleak. But Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord is a pretty big sleeper heading into 2025. If you look at the chart below, you can start to get a clearer picture of why. Big thanks to Football Insights, the absolute GOAT of fantasy football-relevant charts, for this.
QB draft prospects under pressure during their final college season pic.twitter.com/xAOMx0oiG4
— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) January 31, 2025
Who were the two biggest surprises from the 2024 NFL Draft quarterback group? That would be Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix looking like a solid player for most of the season despite being the 6th one off the board and quarterback Jayden Daniels immediately leading his team to an NFC Championship despite sorely lacking on defense, offensive line, and receiver.
And the biggest commonality between the two is that both were great under pressure. Generally, when QBs perform well when the pressure is on, they will do the same when there isn't pressure, and teams are much better off when their signal-callers can still keep their offenses moving even with some of the world's best athletes flying toward them.
Kyle McCord has a stacked resume 📈🍊
- 22-4 as a starter
- 10th in Heisman voting
- All-time ACC record holder for single season passing yards
- 1st NCAA 2024 passing yards @CuseFootball | @Cuse | @kylemccord16 pic.twitter.com/bcfEWvN2Nv— ACC Digital Network (@theACCDN) January 10, 2025
Admittedly, his game is a little rough around the edges, but what do you expect from a sleeper? There's no way to find a QB with a great resume and a big lack of red flags in his game and still have him be a sleeper because he'd be drafted much earlier and considered an elite prospect.
The school of "Literally Just Evaluate How A Quarterback Plays Under Pressure" is probably the best school of QB evaluation. It's too easy for teams and consensus to become enamored with what a quarterback can technically do, but if the outcomes are bad under pressure, the entire offense they're playing in can be sunk completely.
On 3rd down for Ohio State, Notre Dame brought the pressure and Kyle McCord was not phased, finding Emeka Egbuka for the first down! #OSUvsND #GoBucks #FightingIrish #CFB #NotreDame #OhioState pic.twitter.com/lXcBvA0NoW
— CFBMuse (@CFBMuse) September 24, 2023
And what a quarterback can technically do with his arm strength, accuracy, anticipation, and ball placement is awesome! Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud can do all of those things very well! So he should have had a great second season and improved on year one, right?
No, because when the offensive line played much more poorly in 2024, Stroud crumbled. The whole offense took a huge step back, and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik was abruptly fired after a 2023 season that saw him touted as one of the hottest head coaching candidates in the league.
So yeah. Just try to take the productive QBs that were good when under pressure. Being a good quarterback in the NFL requires you to play well when the heat is on. McCord can do it.
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