RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Sit in 10-12 Team Leagues
POSITIONAL VALUE: WR4
ANALYSIS: While Odunze was drafted with the ninth pick and lauded as an elite prospect, he faces an uphill battle to gain significant snaps in 2024 and largely didn't impress in the preseason.
Rome Odunze is the newest Bears WR, but unfortunately for his fantasy managers, the signing of Keenan Allen and the presence of DJ Moore make Odunze the third-string WR on the team.
Though training camp/practice stats don't matter, they can reveal general usage trends. New Bears OC Shane Waldron loves using 12 personnel sets. In 12 personnel, there are two WRs and two tight ends on the field for the offense. Preseason usage suggests that Allen will stay on the field while Moore and Odunze will rotate in and out for the second receiver spot.
Small sample, but Keenan Allen had 100% route participation with Caleb Williams today.
When the team went to 12 personnel he stayed on the field, with D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze rotating for the other spot.
47% of Keenan's snaps were from the slot -- mostly in 11 personnel.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 10, 2024
Limiting Odunze's playing time in an offense that already has two elite WRs is certainly not good for his potential fantasy production. Fantasy managers may be left relying on him having wild efficiency or making big plays, and Odunze didn't impress in the preseason (though it's encouraging he was on the field often).
Every preseason route for Rome Odunze.
Odunze was the Bears WR on the field most with Caleb Williams this preseason.
- 17 routes
- 3 targets
- 1 reception
- 45 yards pic.twitter.com/JbSVrnMUrY— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) August 26, 2024
Odunze only managed to earn a target on three routes. Williams looked his way more than that, but he was often covered and stymied by the defender. His lack of deep speed (4.45 seconds) showed up on the tape, with DBs catching up to him even on plays he beat them off the line of scrimmage.
This doesn't bode well for his target projections; while Odunze was a contested-catch specialist in college, often that doesn't translate well to the NFL (see Quentin Johnston) and it may not matter if Williams is reluctant to throw to covered receivers.
In addition, RotoBaller's own Robert Lorge broke down rookie QBs' struggle with supporting top-12 WRs in fantasy. Odunze isn't projected to be a top-12 WR, but if Williams has any growing pains at all in his first game, the third receiving option on his team could have a hard time producing.
Initially, Odunze should be at best in the flex spot in deeper leagues but is better off riding the bench to start the season. He has an uphill battle to take targets away from Allen and Moore, and Cole Kmet and D'Andre Swift are good players in their own right who profile as solid pass-catchers. Benching Odunze in your fantasy lineups is your best bet -- for now.
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