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The hot stove is heating up just in time for the holidays as some of the biggest names in MLB have signed massive contracts in the past few days. Max Scherzer and Starling Marte to the Mets. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to the Rangers. Kevin Gausman to the Blue Jays. Steven Matz to the Cardinals. Robbie Ray, another big-time free agent, winds up in Seattle.
The 2021 American League CY Young award winner signed a five-year, $115 million contract with the Mariners. Ray's contract was the largest free-agent contract given by the Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto.
Was this a well-deserved payday that will pay off for Seattle or will regression hit after a career-best year?
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A Deeper Look at Ray's Cy Young Season
Robbie Ray is coming off the most successful season of his career. He owned a 13-7 record along with a 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 248:52 K: BB over 193 1/3 innings in 2021. The 30-year-old was rewarded with a five-year deal from Seattle and could opt-out after the third season. Ray has the most strikeouts through the first 1,000 innings of a career; his 11.2 K/9 entering the 2022 season is the highest of all time.
Robbie Ray is the all-time leader in K/9 (11.2)
Even in his Cy Young winning 2021, he had hard-hit issues. But they were dealt with by missing bats with good control
Playing in Mariners' ballpark should alleviate homer concerns, his biggest flaw
Buy high in #FantasyBaseball
— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) November 29, 2021
Let's start by checking out his final pitching line:
2021: 32 GS, 193 1/3 IP, 2.84 ERA, 3.69 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, 32.1% K%, 6.7% BB%, 37.2% GB%
After a disastrous 2020 campaign, Robbie Ray went 2-5 with a 6.62 ERA over 11 starts with Diamondbacks/Blue Jays. He had an ADP of 289 and was the 112th pitcher off the board in 2021 NFBC drafts. The southpaw was one of the biggest steals of fantasy drafts or premier free-agent pickup in some leagues last year. Ray flipped the script in 2021 and won the American League Cy Young award.
He was unhittable towards the end of the summer and struck out 10 or more batters in four straight games from August 20 to September 5, a feat no other Blue Jay starting pitcher has ever done. Despite owning an impressive 32.1 K%, he did surrender a career-high 33 homers and 43.1 hard-hit percentage in 2021. Below is his Statcast data.
2022 Outlook with the Mariners
Robbie Ray has always been able to rack up the strikeouts but has always had a hard time keeping the ball in the yard. The move to Seattle's pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park should help alleviate his mistakes; perhaps the marine layer can help suppress his homers allowed. He showed great control last season, but if he regresses to a 4.3 BB:9 as the left-hander had in 2019 (7.84 in 2020), the move to Seattle won't make much of a difference.
Ray becomes the Mariners ace and will be followed in the rotation by Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen, Logan Gilbert, and Justin Dunn. The Mariners also have top pitching prospects George Kirby and Emerson Hancock waiting in the minors. Steamer projections have Ray with 191 innings pitched, 31.7K%, 8.9 BB%, 35.8 GB%, 3.67 ERA, and a 3.73 FIP.
The Mariners went 90-72 in 2021 and were just short of making the playoffs. The team has a bright future as it was the first time since 2003 Seattle reached 90 wins. This offseason, the Mariners added infielder Adam Frazier and are looking to spend money to acquire more pieces. Ray will no longer have to face the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East and heads to one of baseball's top pitcher parks. The trade-off is that he won't have as explosive an offense with Seattle as he had with Toronto last year.
2022 Fantasy Outlook
Ray is 45 in the latest ADP for 2022 NFBC Leagues, with 29 the highest selected and 58 the lowest. He is being drafted as the 17th overall pitcher, and with his new team, that number could rise as we head into Spring Training. Fantasy managers buying into Ray should view 2021 as an outlier, as it's most likely he won't top last year's production.
The southpaw has always had hard-contact issues, but with reasonable control and the ability to rack up strikeouts, Ray is worth selecting in the top-15 among all pitchers with the potential to finish in the top-5 if he can come close or repeat his 2021 stats.
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