RIVAL Fantasy - NFL FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Prop Picks: Week 16

Joe Nicely's NFL Over/Under DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests and the Week 16 slate. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his NFL DFS prop picks to win money.

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RIVAL FantasyBook NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 16

DK Metcalf OVER 16.07 Fantasy Points

With Seattle's Tyler Lockett recovering from finger surgery, Metcalf will be the unquestioned alpha of this Seahawks receiving corps against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Even with Lockett in the lineup, Metcalf has seen elite usage. He's averaged 10.5 targets per game since Week 12 and has turned that volume into production, averaging 19.32 RIVAL fantasy points across Seattle's last four games.

We can expect a pass-heavy game script for the Seahawks in this projected game environment and Metcalf draws a sneaky-great matchup against the Chiefs. Kansas City ranks dead last in the NFL in Positional DVOA against WR1s and has relinquished a league-high 19 TDs to the WR position this year.

Geno Smith OVER 17.34 Fantasy Points

Although the Seattle Seahawks have lost three of their last four, we can't place the blame on Geno Smith. The NFL's leading Comeback Player of the Year candidate has combined to throw for 1,197 yards and nine TDs since Week 12.

I'm willing to ride the way with Smith in what should be a good matchup against the Chiefs in Week 16. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most DK points in the NFL to opposing QBs this season and stands just 25th in the league in Pass Defense DVOA.

Joe Mixon UNDER 13.90 Fantasy Points

Mixon has struggled to regain his form after missing two games with a concussion. Since his return to the Bengals lineup in Week 14, he has failed to record a TD and averaged just 1.90 yards per carry in last week's game against Tampa Bay.

The sledding only gets tougher for Mixon in Week 16, as he'll likely find little room to maneuver against a New England Patriots defense that has smothered opposing RBs in 2022. The Patriots have relinquished the NFL's fewest rushing TDs (three) while allowing the league's second-fewest fantasy points to the RB position.

D'Onta Foreman UNDER 9.38 Fantasy Points

Foreman has had some nice moments since Christian McCaffrey was shipped to San Francisco at the trade deadline and has rushed for over 100 yards in four games this season. However, Foreman has also looked very one-dimensional and has been a non-factor in the passing game for the Panthers. This leads to his disappearance when Carolina is stuck in a negative game script, such as last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, when Foreman gained just nine rushing yards on 10 carries in a game that the Panthers trailed throughout.

That scenario is once again a realistic possibility in Week 16 against a surging Detroit Lions squad. Since Week 8, the Lions have allowed the fewest RB fantasy points in the league. Foreman will continue to get the early down work as long as this game stays close, though he'll likely need to find the end zone to make much of a fantasy impact in this tough matchup.

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