RIVAL Fantasy - NFL FantasyBook Over/Under DFS Prop Picks: Week 14

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RIVAL FantasyBook NFL Over/Under Picks for Week 14

Mark Andrews OVER 13.64 Fantasy Points

Lamar Jackson's expected absence in Week 14 would appear to be a huge blow to Mark Andrews' fantasy prospects, but I'm not sure that's actually the case. Tyler Huntley filled in for Jackson on five occasions in 2021. Across Huntley's five games at the helm, Andrews garnered a massive 29.1% target share while totaling 498 receiving yards and three TDs.

He should once again be the focal point of Baltimore's passing game this week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh ranks 19th in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to opposing TEs this season.

Deshaun Watson UNDER 16.88 Fantasy Points

One of the props highlighted in this article last week was the under on Deshaun Watson and I'm willing to continue to bet against him on this slate. Last week's matchup against the Texans was Watson's first action in a regular season NFL game in 700 days and it showed.

The controversial signal-caller fell flat in his return to Houston, posting just 131 passing yards, no TDs, and a pick against the lowly Texans' defense. Watson looked very rusty and sometimes overwhelmed by the speed of the game, while any semblance of timing with his receivers was non-existent.

Things won't get any easier for him this week, as he faces an even better defense in the Cincinnati Bengals. This Bengals unit ranks 11th in the league in Total Defense DVOA and has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points in the NFL to the QB position this year.

Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 18.67 fantasy points

Despite some injury blips, Amon-Ra St. Brown has produced 830 receiving yards and six TDs on 76 catches this season.

His strong production can be tied not only to his obvious talent but also to his elite usage in this Lions' passing attack. St. Brown has been targeted eight or more times in six straight games and his massive 33.3% team target share since Week 8, trails only Davante Adams in the entire NFL over that timeframe.

This robust volume gives St. Brown one of the highest fantasy floors in the league and a Week 14 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings presents him with a great ceiling opportunity. The Vikings have relinquished the most receiving yards in the NFL to opposing wide receivers and grade out just 24th in the league in Pass Defense DVOA. The Sun God should feast in RIVAL's Full-PPR scoring system.

Mike White OVER 12.99 Fantasy Points

Our friends at RIVAL are not giving Mike White much respect with this line. Since entering the Jets' lineup in place of Zach Wilson two weeks ago, White has posted 17.46 RIVAL points against Minnesota and 24.8 against Chicago.

This week's matchup against the Buffalo Bills will certainly be the toughest he's faced yet, though this Bills' defense isn't quite as dominant as it has been in the past. Buffalo has allowed opposing QBs to throw for 2,832 yards and 15 TDs this season and ranks 28th in the NFL in passing yards allowed over the past month.

The NY coaching staff has displayed a willingness to turn White loose, as he's attempted 57 (!) and 28 passes in his two starts this year, recording 315 or more passing yards in each. There's a good chance the Jets could be chasing in this one, which would help to elevate White's already-solid volume even more.

Christian Kirk OVER 15.22 Fantasy Points

Lots of jokes were made at Kirk's expense when he signed a mega millions deal with the Jags over the summer, but Kirk has actually lived up to the contract in 2022. He stands fourth in the league in receiving TDs (7) and 16th at the WR position in fantasy points scored. Kirk leads the Jags with a 24.9% target share and is garnering an average of 8.3 looks per game in an offense that is improving as the season progresses.

He's set to face a Tennessee Titans defense that is the definition of a pass-funnel unit. The Titans rank first in the NFL in Rush Defense DVOA, yet their secondary has been a legitimate dumpster fire en route to allowing the league's most fantasy points, most TDs, and second-most receiving yards to the WR position.

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