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Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user chooses the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Michael Kopech vs. Adolis Garcia
I understand the appeal for the Garcia side, but I will side with the starting pitcher in these Challenge matchups 95% of the time. Kopech put up a monster 41.4 FPTS game in his last outing against the Royals, and his previous outings (11.7, 7.5, and 21.9 FPTS) are all on the higher side of what we'd expect a hitter to accomplish on any given night. Garcia has an appealing matchup against Oviedo, but Kopech's affair with the Guardians (27th in OPS vs. RHP) is also soft.
Marcus Semien vs. Brenton Doyle
Sandy Alcantara, the reigning Cy Young winner, is a better pitcher than he has shown this season. While tonight's matchup is in Coors Field, I think we see a version closer to his former self than the one with a 5.05 ERA and ten earned runs allowed over his last two starts. All of this is to say I like Semien to outscore Doyle tonight with his advantageous matchup against Oviedo on deck.
We'll end this section with an easy one. Soto has games of 29 and 21 FPTS over his last three and is averaging 8.8 FPTS per game this season, while Schwarber has scored 4 FPTS or less in four of his last six outings. Soto faces Trevor Williams, while Schwarber gets a difficult matchup against Zac Gallen. Pick Soto here, and pray that someone takes the bait.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Marcus Stroman (UNDER), Cal Quantrill (OVER), Trevor Williams (UNDER)
Stroman is averaging 16.3 FPTS per game this season, and his line sits at 15.47 FPTS for tonight's matchup. However, the veteran hurler has been chiefly taking advantage of a soft schedule to start the year, as he got blown up in two of the only starts he has made against formidable offenses (LAD, MIN). He gets the Mets tonight, and while Vegas is expecting a low-scoring pitchers' duel, I think it's more likely Stroman will fail to hit the over in this spot.
Quantrill has been worse than his decent 4.06 ERA, evidenced by poor Statcast metrics and a 5.36 xERA. However, his line is at just 12.6 FPTS tonight, and he has exceeded that mark in two of his last three outings. If anything, this is more of a matchup play as he faces a floundering White Sox squad that ranks bottom-ten in OPS, ISO, and wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Williams hasn't shown me anything that suggests he'll go over his 12.72 FPTS line tonight against the Padres. He holds a 4.26 ERA (5.08 xERA) with a 16.9% strikeout rate over nine starts this season, and he's averaging just 10.11 FPTS per game. The Padres have been underwhelming from a team-hitting perspective, but they're protecting for 5.5 runs tonight and I don't see any way Williams hit his over here.
Jorge Soler (OVER), Bobby Witt Jr. (OVER), Pete Alonso (OVER)
Soler is averaging 8.26 FPTS per game this season and has posted monster games of 21 and 27 FPTS over his last three appearances. He only needs to go over 7 FPTS tonight, and that feels attainable as the Marlins hold a massive 6-run implied total, and opposing start Karl Kauffmann allowed seven hits, four earned runs, and two walks over his first 4 and 1/3 innings in the MLB last Friday. Plus, this game is being played in the high altitudes of Denver, Colorado. Giddy up.
Witt is only hitting .227 with an underwhelming .670 OPS this season. However, he holds a .550 SLG, .836 OPS, .300 ISO, and .353 wOBA against left-handed pitchers, and he gets an exploitable southpaw on the mound to start tonight's game as the everlasting Matthew Boyd (6.21 ERA, 4.26 xERA) will take the hill for the Tigers.
Alonso is on a tear as he has hit homers in five of his last seven games and holds a .836 OPS in May, despite a poor .192 batting average for the month. Opposing starter Marcus Stroman has excellent surface stats (3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP), but he's giving up a lot of hard-hit balls and holds a less-impressive 4.35 ERA in May.
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