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Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user chooses the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Jon Gray vs. Kenta Maeda
Both pitchers are in solid form, but Gray gets the much easier matchup today against the lowly Reds. The park factor in Cincy is tough for pitchers, but I will side with the pitcher who isn't facing the Yankees 99 times out of 100 here.
Jon Gray vs. Michael Kopech
I'll detail the reasons to go UNDER Gray's RIVAL total below, but I like him to outscore both Maeda and Kopech today. Kopech has proven to be wild and volatile, posting a 6.97 ERA (9.87 xERA) with some extremely-poor Statcast metrics through four starts this season. He's also facing the Blue Jays, one of the top offenses in the league and one that's projected to score a slate-high 5.8 runs at home today. Take literally anyone over Kopech today.
Rafael Devers vs. Adolis Garcia
Devers is the better hitter in this matchup, and that shouldn't be too controversial. Garcia posted 68 RIVAL points with his insane five-hit, three-homer performance last Friday, but again, Devers is the better hitter and has the slightly easier starting pitcher matchup against Tyler Wells.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Zac Gallen (OVER), Jon Gray (UNDER), Drew Smyly (OVER)
Gallen is on fire right now, going for 40.5 and 31.2 RIVAL points over his last two starts. He has been great all season, posting a sparkling 2.59 ERA (2.34 xERA) with a 33.1% strikeout rate over five starts. The Royals hold a brutal 3.4-run implied total against him today, and they have some of the worst team-hitting metrics in the league against right-handed pitching (24.9% K%, .585 OPS, .109 ISO, .260 wOBA). Gallen has the highest OVER/UNDER number on the board today but will soar past it anyway.
Gray has the third-highest OVER/UNDER score on the board today, and I think that's a mistake, as it's way too high. Gray's surface metrics look OK, with a 3.72 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, but his 6.21 xERA and punchless 18.3% strikeout rate don't inspire any confidence in his ability to keep up the charade. The Reds have a pretty awful offense that can certainly be taken advantage of, but Vegas has them scoring 4.4 runs today, and I don't see a clear path to strikeout or win bonus upside with Gray.
Smyly has gone over his RIVAL OVER/UNDER total in each of his last two starts, scoring 40.65 in his last start as he flirted with a perfect game. As you can see in the Statcast graphic below, Smyly holds some of the best batted-ball metrics in the league to go along with his shiny 3.13 ERA (1.96 xERA). The Padres have a dangerous lineup, but they're not amazing against lefties as they hold the 11th-worst OPS (.688) and 10th-worst wOBA (.301) in the split.
Max Kepler (UNDER), Tyler Stephenson (UNDER), Anthony Rizzo (UNDER)
Kepler still has much to prove before we can be confident taking the OVER on him. He holds a .222 AVG with two homers and four RBI this season, and while Domingo German isn't anything special, he's good enough to prevent Kepler from exceeding his total today.
This is a pick that plays off of the Jon Gray pick from earlier. Stephenson hasn't been hitting well lately, as he has finished below his RIVAL total in eight of his last nine games.
Rizzo is in a mini-slump, as he's 2-for-20 over his last five games. Opposing starter Maeda typically struggles against left-handed hitters in his career, but he's in solid form and I'm counting on Rizzo's slump to continue here.
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