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Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user decides on the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
RIVAL Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win MLB DFS games. There are no large-field tournaments filled with sharks where you have to get lucky to place. At RIVAL Fantasy, you're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Check here for the updated rules and scoring.
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Aaron Nola OVER Max Fried
While Fried has been stellar in his limited action, the young lefty hasn't pitched since the beginning of May with a forearm strain. While reports say "he should be able to give Atlanta something close to a full workload," I'm not buying it, as the Braves have their sites set on getting their players healthy for the playoffs. They're going to be cautious here. The Cubs can hit lefties, too, ranking 11th in OPS (.762) and eighth in ISO (.176) in the split. Nola, meanwhile, gets the luxury of facing the Royals. Kansas City holds the fourth-worst OPS (.670) against right-handed pitching, and they hold a minuscule 3.7-run implied total tonight.
Aaron Nola OVER Kyle Hendricks
We get the same Nola vs. Royals matchup here, but this time we're going up against a pitcher facing the Braves. As we have seen repeatedly this season, it's almost always going to be an advantage: Braves in these situations.
Graham Ashcraft OVER Kyle Hendricks
The Nationals are terrible offensively, which gives me confidence in backing Ashcraft tonight. Again, we're just targeting the other side of a pitcher facing the Braves with this play.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Jordan Lyles (UNDER), Patrick Corbin (UNDER)
Lyles gonna Lyle. Much like in past seasons, Lyles holds a high ERA, terrible advanced metrics, and one of MLB's highest home run rates. I don't want any part of backing the "over" on his FPTS line tonight, especially against a Phillies lineup with plenty of power and a 5.6-run implied total tonight.
Corbin put up a stretch of league-average pitching through 11 starts in May and June, but it has unraveled for him outside those months. The veteran lefty holds a brutal 5.07 ERA (6.32 xERA), 1.53 WHIP, and some of the worst advanced metrics in the league (detailed in the De La Cruz blurb). I'm heavily invested in the under here, particularly against a dangerous Reds lineup playing in a top-two hitters' ballpark.
Elly De La Cruz (OVER), Matt McLain (OVER), Carlos Correa (UNDER)
I'll take the over on this one as the Reds draw Patrick Corbin (5.07 ERA, 6.32 xERA, .314 xBA, .517 xSLG, 15.5% K%) and the second-worst bullpen in the league by xFIP (4.88). It has to be noted that this game will be played at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, which ranks #2 in Park Factor and #1 in home runs.
While De La Cruz doesn't hit lefties well and might have to wait for the bullpen to do his damage, McLain feasts on lefties. The rookie holds a 1.038 OPS, .279 ISO, and .439 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season; those are splits normally reserved for the upper echelon of hitters. Corbin is about as bad as it gets, and I'm expecting McLain and the Reds to do damage against him and a shoddy bullpen tonight.
To say Correa has been a disappointment this season would be a massive understatement. The Twins gave a monster contract to make him their franchise staple for years to come, but he has responded with his worst season at the plate over his nine-year MLB career. He holds a career-worst .685 OPS and is tracking for embarrassing finishes in the runs and RBI departments, to go along with leading the league in double plays hit into. He's 3-for-28 over his last seven games, and I have zero faith that he'll be turning things around against Merrill Kelly and a formidable D-Backs bullpen tonight.
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