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Kyle Ringstad's MLB DFS prop picks for RIVAL fantasy contests for Friday, April 21st, 2023. Sign up for RIVAL fantasy and use his MLB DFS prop picks to win money.
Welcome to our new series covering RIVAL Fantasy picks for MLB! We will focus on two fantasy contest types offered on RIVAL - Challenges and FantasyBook (Over/Under).
Challenges are H2H matchups between two MLB players. You choose which one you think will score the most fantasy points, then place a bet to back it. If another user chooses the other player at any time before the contest, the bet is on! If your player scores more fantasy points, you win 1.8x your bet.
FantasyBook is more traditional over/under DFS prop picks - whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: 3 picks = 5x your bet).
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RIVAL Challenge Picks
Julio Urias vs. Domingo German
German holds a 3.86 ERA (3.37 xERA) and has put up eight, zero, and 11 strikeouts over his three starts, though the 11-strikeout game was marred by a "sticky substance" issue that oddly got dismissed against the Twins. Urias holds a sparkling 1.90 ERA (2.58 xERA) with a 28.3% strikeout rate over his four starts. Urias has proven to be a better pitcher over a longer sample size, and he also gets the easier matchup tonight against the Cubs while German faces the gauntlet that is the Blue Jays lineup.
Julio Urias vs. Calvin Faucher
Faucher is a relief pitcher who occasionally receives a start in a bullpen game, as he will today against the struggling Chicago White Sox. He will only pitch a few innings, though, as the most work he has seen is 2 and 2/3 innings on 4/15 against Toronto. Urias projects as the better option today by a country mile.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. vs. Nico Hoerner
Chisholm Jr. is seeing the ball well, as he has 8, 25, and 15 RIVAL fantasy points over his last three games. That stretch included three steals, a homer, and four RBI. He also gets a cake matchup at starting pitcher today as the Marlins will take on Zach Plesac and his ugly 6.92 ERA. Hoerner has also been hot lately, but he's coming back down to earth with just five RIVAL points in two of his last three games.
RIVAL Over/Under Picks
Zac Gallen (OVER), Trevor Williams (UNDER), Zach Plesac (UNDER)
Guess what team has the 10th-worst OPS (.693) and strikes out the third-most (25.7%) against right-handed pitching this season? That'd be the Padres, who Gallen will face off against for the second time this season. It didn't go well for him the first time, but he has been otherwise brilliant with a 3.33 ERA (2.77 xERA) and 29.5% strikeout rate this season. I like his chances to rack up punchouts and notch a win bonus today.
Williams has the lowest Whiff rate in the MLB, and his 14.1% strikeout rate is downright embarrassing for an MLB pitcher through three starts. His 3.52 ERA isn't bad, but his 5.17 xERA tells a much different story, and I think the Twins will get to him early and often tonight. They're projecting a 4.5-run implied total.
We can't have any confidence in Plesac hitting the OVER on any number with the form he's currently in. The 28-year-old has been downright awful, compiling a 6.92 ERA (4.37 xERA) and an abysmal 13.3% strikeout rate through three starts this season. While the Marlins are far from an offensive juggernaut, he's already shown us that he can be terrible in positive matchups against the A's and Nationals.
Jazz Chisholm Jr., (OVER), Lane Thomas (UNDER), Jake Fraley (UNDER)
I stated why I like Chisholm, and really and Marlins tonight, against the struggling Plesac. He has a high RIVAL fantasy point number to hit, but the opportunity is there for the taking.
Thomas holds an uninspiring .672 OPS this season, and his .528 OPS against right-handed pitching is below replacement level. Mahle (4.11 ERA, 3.37 xERA) has been solid enough to back the under on Thomas tonight.
Fraley has gotten off to a slow start at the dish, posting a .686 OPS with just one homer and 10 RBI through 52 at-bats. Mitch Keller is far from an ace, but he's good enough to keep holding Fraley down in this matchup.
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