RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 110
CURRENT ADP: ~128 overall
ANALYSIS: After seeing a lot of success early in his career, Rhys Hoskins has fallen off in the minds of many. Digging into the numbers was interesting, as outside of a few outlier stats (.226 AVG in 2019 for example), he hasn’t been that much worse than his 2018 season. Not only that, but his underlying metrics also suggest that last year was his best year and is due for a lot more success than he’s been seeing.
His .364 WOBA was below his expected WOBA of .378 and his .530 SLG was also below his .564 xSLG. This likely has to do with just how hard he hit the ball last season. His 17% barrel rate was in the 94th percentile, and everything from max exit velocity and average exit velocity to his hard-hit rate was all in the 77th percentile or higher. His 10.6 walk rate in 2021 wasn’t great, but I think this can be considered as an outlier due to his walk rate never being below 13.2% in his career and getting as high as 16.5% in a full season in 2019. I’m also optimistic about his on-base because of the trajectory of his WOBA last season and how it began to skyrocket before his season-ending lower abdomen injury. Assuming good health, the sixth-year pro has the chance to reach new heights in 2022.
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