I was one of several baseball writers who made a list of bold predictions heading into the 2016 season, and now it's time to see how those predictions panned out. This reminds me of when they used to mail the report card to your home in high school. You know you won't have to deal with the fallout for a while, but it's going to be painful when that day comes. Here we go!
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Grading The Predictions
1. Jason Hammel will be a top-25 starting pitcher.
Our first shot was looking pretty good until Hammel made his standard fade down the stretch, although this one may have been the result of an injury. The veteran clocked in as the 39th best pitcher according to Fleaflicker rankings, and while he didn't have quite the season I envisioned, he provided quality to owners for most of 2016.
Grade C+
2. Prince Fielder will be closer to a top-25 than a top-10 option at first base.
This one hit, but it feels.... dirty. Fielder struggled all season before succumbing to a neck injury that actually forced his retirement. In the prediction I wrote that weight has likely played a significant role in Fielder's decline, but I'm not in a position to say that the neck injury is related to the size of his body. Still, Fielder finished as the 67th-best first baseman, making this a prediction that is technically correct.
Grade: A- See me after class.
3. Mark Reynolds will be relevant in mixed leagues.
Reynolds was working on making this happen, but a broken hand early in August resulted in a three-week absence. He was beginning to get his footing back after returning, but his season was ended after he was hit in the hand with a pitch on Sept. 18. Reynolds finished the year with a solid .282/.356/.450 batting line, but played in just 118 games, which really hurt his chance to make a fantasy impact. While this goes in the books as a miss, 2016 gave us the best version of Reynolds we have seen in quite some time, and he could be an intriguing late-round bat in 2017.
Grade: D that I turned into a B.
4. David Peralta will be a top-15 outfielder.
2016 was a lost season for a Peralta, as he played in just 48 games as a result of injuries. His numbers from that small sample aren't very impressive, but I think the only fair thing to do (pretty please) is to throw this one out, as he was unable to get his legs under him for most of the year. He will still be a target of mine next year, but wrist injuries can sometimes sap power, so that is certainly worth monitoring in spring training.
5. Mat Latos finishes the season as a top-40 starting pitcher.
Can we please just talk about Justin Verlander? I was so happy when Latos began the year allowing two runs over his first four starts that I actually sent out a tweet that read: "make me proud." The truth of the matter, though, is that Latos' peripherals were all kinds of ugly through that stretch. The 28-year-old couldn't outrun his problems for long, and he was designated for assignment by the White Sox after getting rocked for 25 earned runs over just 31 innings in May and June. Latos worked as a bullpen arm for a bit after getting picked up by the Nationals, but suffice to say he isn't someone you should have on your radar in 2017. I'm so sorry.
Grade: An illustration of a dumpster on fire.
6. Jumbo Diaz will save 30 games for the Reds
Well, I was only off by 30. The frustrating thing about this prediction is there was a ton of volatility in the Cincinnati bullpen, but Jumbo never got a bite at the apple. In fact, he was shipped off to Triple-A fairly early in the year, and wasn't really used in any high-leverage spots when he was with the big club. The bottom line, though, is that his strikeout rate plummeted and his home run rate soared, so there isn't much to complain about.
Grade: I can't fit that many frowning faces on one page.
7. Justin Verlander reemerges as a top-10 starting pitcher
Wow! What a tremendous pick! Did you guys all see how well Verlander did?!
Okay, that's enough.
Verlander exceeded my expectations, as he comes in as the No. 2 ranked pitcher on Fleaflicker behind Max Scherzer. The former Cy Young Award winner registered the highest strikeout rate of his career in 2016, while also notching a 3.04 ERA. The main catalyst for the success seems to be Verlander's slider, which was scored at 18 runs above average. It will be interesting to see where he goes on draft boards in 2017, as he will likely be ready to rock as long as he stays healthy.
Grade:
8. Michael Pineda will be a top-20 starting pitcher.
Pineda's runs above average mark on his fastball was negative 27. I'm tempted to stop right there, but while you let the enormity of that number sink in I can also tell you that he allowed a higher rate of homers (1.4/9) than he did in 2015, while also walking more batters. He actually improved his strikeout rate thanks to a nasty slider, but there is simply no way to be consistently effective when your primary offering is so terrible.
Grade: Is there anything lower than an F?
9. Pedro Alvarez will eclipse 40 home runs for the first time in his career.
Nope. In fact, he failed to reach the 30-home run mark for the third consecutive year. Alvarez had a fairly strong second half, hitting 13 homers and logging a .300 ISO, but he would've needed quite a bit more to even sniff the 40 club. If there is a silver lining here, it's that Alvarez will remain an extremely cheap power source in 2017.
Grade: You already know
10. Joaquin Benoit will be closing for the Mariners before the All-Star break.
I said in my prediction piece that Benoit was the Charlie Brown of relievers. That held true in 2016, as he was traded to the Blue Jays a week before Steve Cishek was removed from the closer's role. It should be stated that Benoit would have been taking over after the All-Star break if he had gotten the job, meaning I would only be eligible for partial credit. Benoit tore his calf in a brawl near the end of the season, finishing with a solid 2.81 ERA. There is no word on his status for the 2017 season.
Final grade: