Relief Pitcher Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Closers, Saves and Holds Targets

Relief pitcher can be the most volatile position in fantasy baseball. Players can lose their roles due to inefficiency, the emergence of a teammate, or the manager having different ideas than you thought they would. Whatever the reason, saves can be tough to predict.

That's why finding a closer in your draft who has better-than-average job security and has proven themselves in the role can go a long way to carrying your fantasy teams toward a championship. Here, we take a look at five relievers who had a breakout 2022 season that are set to follow suit in their 2023 campaigns.

There are a ton of articles on the site to get you set for your drafts and in-season management so make sure you head over to RotoBaller.com for all your prep and assistance. Without further ado, let's take a look at some relievers you want on your rosters in 2023.

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Ryan Helsley, St Louis Cardinals

Helsley emerged as the Cardinals' main ninth-inning option last year, usurping Giovany Gallegos, who did little wrong to lose the role. That was the dominance Helsley displayed and he ended the year with a 9-1 W-L record, 1.25 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 94 Ks, and 19 saves (64.2 IP). Given Helsley had a career 4.03 ERA over 96.0 IP across the previous three years, his success last year came as a nice surprise.

While Statcast snapshots shouldn't be used as a complete guide to a player's performance, Helsley's is noteworthy. The contact Helsley gives up is "louder" than you would hope for but he allows so little contact that it doesn't cause much harm. Providing he can keep the walks in check (8.4% BB%), the hits are so few and far between that they won't have much impact.

Helsley did have a 2.60 xFIP and 2.02 SIERA, so while you might point to regression on his ERA, he still ranked inside the top 10 among all relievers with at least 50.0 IP last year for both stats. He will remain an elite option even if his ERA does go over 2.00 given the number of strikeouts he racks up and the number of saves he can accumulate on a team expected to win their division.

Helsley's fastball averaged 99.6 mph last year but is sitting at 97.6 mph this spring (with limited data), so it's worth watching out for that in the early goings as that's in line with his pre-2022 velocity. But that's over just 7.1 IP and he still has a 2.45 ERA with 13 Ks. Even a dip in velocity shouldn't prevent Helsley from being one of fantasy's best closer options.

Felix Bautista, Baltimore Orioles

Like the Orioles as a whole, Bautista was a nice surprise in 2022, emerging as not only the best reliever in Baltimore's bullpen but one of the best in baseball. In 65.2 IP, Bautista had a 4-4 W-L record, 2.19 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 15 saves. Bautista did have success in the minor leagues but didn't reach Triple-A until 2021. Despite totaling only 18.1 IP at the level, the Orioles still made him a member of their bullpen to begin 2022.

Across 222.2 IP in the minors, Bautista had a 3.23 ERA. Since exclusively being used as a reliever from 2019 onward, his minor league ERA was 2.38 (83.1 IP). It's fair to say he warranted his call-up to the majors, and if he pitched for a team other than the Orioles, he likely would've been a more sought-after fantasy reliever.

Despite winning 83 games last year (the 14th-most), the Orioles as a team tallied 46 saves (the eighth-most). If they can play around .500 baseball this year, Bautista could see himself picking up ~35 saves in 2023. His underlying numbers last year (2.49 SIERA and 2.77 xFIP) point to him being one of the best fantasy options this year.

Andres Munoz, Seattle Mariners

Muñoz does not appear set to be the Mariners' closer, although he might split the role with Paul Sewald to start the year. Whatever his role, Muñoz is sure to be one of the most electric pitchers in baseball this year. After debuting with the Padres in 2019 as a 20-year-old, Muñoz gave us a glimpse of his potential with a 3.91 ERA over 23.0 IP. Tommy John surgery in 2020 saw him pitch a total of 0.2 innings over the next two years but his trade to the Mariners doesn't appear to have done any harm.

In 65.0 IP last year, Muñoz had a 5-4 W-L record, 2.49 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 96 Ks, and four saves. It's not often a pitcher can have a 2.49 ERA and consider himself unlucky. Given Muñoz also had a 2.04 xFIP and 1.74 SIERA, which ranked third and second, respectively, among relievers with 50.0+ IP last year, he could've shaved half a run off his ERA with some fortune. The below table shows where Muñoz ranked among that group of 144 relievers in other categories.

A big part of his success with the Mariners is down to his pitch mix. In 2019 with the Padres, Muñoz threw his fastball 66.6% of the time and had a .472 SLG against it. Last year, Muñoz threw the fastball 35.4% of the time (.500 SLG against it). His slider (64.6%) had a .126 AVG and a .176 SLG against it. As long as those rates stay similar, Muñoz should continue to see success.

Like Helsley, Muñoz strikes out a ton and doesn't give up much contact. But the contact he does allow isn't particularly hard and a lot of balls are hit on the ground. Now in his third year since undergoing TJS, Muñoz is primed to show everyone that last year was not a fluke. It isn't a stretch to believe he could end up as the best bullpen arm in fantasy baseball this year.

Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers

Even with Opening Day on the horizon, we are still none the wiser as to who will be closing games for the Dodgers. But the fact that Phillips is in the discussion not only to pick up saves but possibly be the head of any committee they may use is a testament to how well he pitched last year. In 63.0 IP, Phillips had a 7-3 W-L record, 1.14 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 77 Ks, and two saves.

Given the Dodgers are the fourth MLB team he's pitched for, Phillips being in consideration for saves with a World Series favorite is pretty remarkable. Especially when we look at his career numbers prior to 2022. In 67.1 IP (since 2018), Phillips had a 2-4 W-L record, 6.68 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 79 Ks, and one save.

Last year, Phillips introduced a cutter to his arsenal (which he threw 27.0%) and the results speak for themselves. The cutter had a .169 AVG and .200 SLG against it, so there's evidence it's working. We can see from his below pitch mix that Phillips is also using his fastball less with his cutter working well alongside his sweeper (.160 AVG and .264 SLG against it).

Phillips might not end up leading the team in saves but as long as he doesn't struggle, he will still be in the mix for saves and could end up with ~20. If he can replicate his 33.0% K% from last year and put up a ~2.50 ERA (which his 2.34 SIERA and 2.72 xFIP suggest he can), Phillips could end up being the reliever that provides the most value in fantasy compared to his ADP (262).

Jhoan Duran, Minnesota Twins

Duran was chosen as Pitching Ninja's 'Filthiest Rookie Reliever of 2022' and it's not surprising to see why when you check out his highlight package. Full disclosure, as much as I love Duran's stuff, I hate the word 'splinker' (unjustifiably, I admit). If you're familiar with Duran, you'll know what it is. For those of you who don't, it's a pitch Duran throws with a splitter grip but the ball moves like the nastiest sinker you'll see. Oh, and he throws it at 100 mph.

2022 PitchingNinja Award for Filthiest Rookie Reliever. 🏆

Winner: Jhoan Duran. pic.twitter.com/Wc8SQLiKMw

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) December 4, 2022

Duran's splinker (I already hate having to use the word again) is practically unhittable and his fastball hit 104 mph last year. Good luck to the hitters facing him. Duran's 2022 numbers should come as no surprise, with a 2-4 W-L record, 1.86 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 89 Ks, and eight saves (67.2 IP). Following the struggles of midseason acquisition Jorge Lopez last year, who put up a 4.37 ERA with the Twins and blew two saves in his first five appearances, there are hopes Duran can be the main closer in Minnesota.

If last year was anything to go by, it might not be the case as Duran's stuff is so nasty that he will likely still be called upon in big spots before the ninth inning. That being said, there's no reason Duran can't reach double-digit saves. If Lopez struggles out of the gate, the Twins may just run with Duran as their ninth-inning guy. Duran's 1.96 SIERA and 2.11 xFIP along with his 33.5% K% tells us he is more than capable of being an elite fantasy option if given the closer role.

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