RADIO
Eric's redraft of the 2021 fantasy football season ahead of Week 4 looks at the biggest risers and fallers early in the season and what a draft would look like midseason.
It's three weeks into the season, so we've started to notice some trends that have emerged. Some players have more usage than we expected. Some offenses are playing at a faster pace. Some teams look utterly lost. So, if we could do it all over again, what would we do differently? That's the basic question of this article where I go back through the first eight rounds of a 12-team draft and redraft based on what we know now.
Now, this may seem like a silly exercise and, in truth, it is mainly just for fun. However, there is some benefit to it. By going back and having the same internal discussions you had in the offseason about preferring Player A or Player B, you can crystallize your evolving opinions on players. Perhaps your visceral reaction to one of my rankings allows you to see that you're much higher on a player than some other people might be and you could go out and try to propose a trade for that player in your league. Even though we can't actually re-draft, we can certainly recalibrate and that's just as important.
For the purpose of this exercise, I took the NFFC ADP from August 8th to September 8th (right before the first game). Remember that NFC drafts are PPR format, so this will be looking at all of these players from a PPR perspective. Also, let's have some fun with it. Your opinions may differ, and that's fine, but that's what makes fantasy sports fun. If we all liked and drafted the same players then there'd be no real competitive joy.
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Round 1
Let's start with the obvious shake-up at the top, which is 100% impacted by Christian McCaffrey's injury. As I mentioned at the start of this article, the basic premise is "If I was doing a draft today, who am I drafting?" In that case, Henry is the #1 guy for me since Dalvin Cook is currently battling an ankle injury that might impact his usage over the next few weeks. It's also important to note that Derrick Henry has seen 13 targets over his first three games; that's one behind Alvin Kamara and more than Miles Sanders, Jonathan Taylor, and Aaron Jones. Henry also has the third-highest rush share in the league and most touches by TWENTY over Joe Mixon. That's the type of security you want with the number one pick.
You'll notice that, after Cook, I went to Davante Adams and Travis Kelce soon after. The top tier running backs really haven't been as rock-solid as we thought going into the season, so I'm taking the elite players at WR and TE and giving myself an advantage there.
I'm also bumping Jones up my draft board because he's not really in as much of a split with AJ Dillon as people assumed, totaling 64.3% of the snap share, 67% of the running back targets, and 58% of the rushing share. I have him ahead of Kamara because the Saints offense is not nearly as dynamic with Jameis Winston under center, but Kamara is still getting 74% of the running back touches there and remains a tremendous talent.
I slot in McCaffrey at seven because I just think he is so far and away the number one player in fantasy football when he's healthy. The fact that the Panthers aren't putting him on the IR means he might only miss two games, so I'll take the chance that I can survive two games without him in order to have the clear best player in fantasy on my team. However, Saquon Barkley was close. He's starting to look healthy and has ramped up his usage every week this season. I just wish his offense, and particularly his offensive line, was better.
I end Round 1 with a trio of wide receivers and the only one that should be a surprise there is Cooper Kupp. He's currently the #1 player in PPR formats and while I don't expect this pace to continue (it can't), he has a 35.5% target share on one of the best offenses in the league, and it's clear that he has Matthew Stafford's trust. He's being used as a deep threat and a possession receiver, and I just think he's become of the safer WR options there is.
Round 2
It really is a toss-up between Kupp and DeAndre Hopkins, so Hopkins begins round two, where we have a bunch of really good receivers. None of these names should be surprising here, except for, possibly, the addition of D.J. Moore, who has really taken the next step in Carolina. He has a 30.4% target share and has seen his team target share improve each week. He's on the field for 81% of snaps and is being used all over the field for the Panthers. He might not have the ceiling of the names above him in this round, but I think you would love to have the target security.
The running back situation has changed the most in Round Two. Ezekiel Elliott finds himself slipping into Round Two because he only handles 57.3% of the running back touches in Dallas. The offense is still explosive and Zeke is still 5th in the NFL among running backs with a 75.7% snap share, so we don't want to overreact too much to the emergence of Tony Pollard. Zeke has also been getting the all-important red-zone work, so he remains a rock-solid RB1. He's just now joined by Joe Mixon, who people love to write off. However, Mixon is 3rd in the NFL with 87% of the running back touches in Cincinnati and is 4th with a 79% snap share. He has ceded a little bit of passing-down work to Chris Evans, but Mixon is pretty clearly now an every-down back, which is what we've been waiting for for years.
Nick Chubb falls for me because the split with Kareem Hunt has been more even than I expected. Chubb is only handling 52% of the running back touches in Cleveland and only has three targets in the passing game to Hunt's 11. So if if he's getting over 60% of the rushing share but pretty much no passing down work, he becomes really game script and touchdown-dependent. We know the Browns want to run the ball, but it makes me less bullish on Chubb, who remains an RB1 simply because of just how many guys are in some sort of timeshare. However, he is just behind Antonio Gibson, who is 8th in the NFL with 75% of the running back touches in Washington, and just ahead of D'Andre Swift, who may only have 56% of the running back touches in Detroit, but has 23 targets in three games and will continue to see massive work in the passing game for a team that figures to trail a lot this year. In a PPR league, that's music to your ears.
Ahead of all of them is Najee Harris, who leads the entire NFL with 95% of the running back touches in Pittsburgh. He has a 96.4% snap share, 80% rush share, and 27 targets through three games. I wish the Pittsburgh offensive line was better but no back in the entire league is getting the workload that Harris is, plus he's got the talent to help boost the massive volume he's seeing.
Round 3
Darren Waller leads all tight ends with a 25.6% target share and the position is a complete mess after the top four guys, so I'm locking him in if I'm drafting now. I'm also taking George Kittle in the middle of the round for the same reason. His 20% target share may be below Deebo Samuel, but Kittle's on the field for 98.5% of San Francisco's snaps, which is insane usage so the involvement is just going to continue to be there.
This also becomes a bit of the Seattle Seahawks round as Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Chris Carson all come off the board. Lockett and Metcalf are likely going to rotate successful weeks, but they are both elite playmakers in one of the better offenses in football. Lockett gets the slight edge because he hits for more splash plays, but I'd love to have either. Carson also sees a bump because of the security of his role. We've talked about how running back has few elite usage options and just a bunch of guys who are in some sort of timeshare; well, not Carson. Carson is 4th in the NFL with 79% of the running back touches in Seattle, totaling a 65% rush share and five of the seven targets Russell Wilson has thrown to running backs. Considering he is on the field for many of the passing downs, I expect that number to go up if Russ starts dumping the ball off more.
Here is where you see Jonathan Taylor come off the board. I'm down on him for myriad reasons, so let's go through them. For one, Carson Wentz is banged up and not playing incredibly well, which means the passing game isn't taking much pressure off the running game. Secondly, the Colts offensive line is banged up and not playing near the level they were playing at in years past. Third, Jonathan Taylor has only handled 60.2% of all running back touches in Indianapolis, which is 15th in the NFL. He has a 49.5% snap share but Nyheim Hines has a 45.5% snap share. Hines has more targets, as we expected, but also has over 20% of the team rushes, which is not something we expected. Taylor is still in the third round, so he's not a bad pick, but I just think the players now ahead of him offer more security, especially in a PPR format.
A.J. Brown has struggled to start the year, but we saw him struggle last year too before exploding to end the season. I know he's a bit banged up right now, but I'm keeping the faith for a hot stretch coming soon. Chris Godwin also gets a bump for being the most consistent option in the Tampa Bay passing attack. These receivers are going to rotate big games, but Tom Brady has more pass attempts than anybody in the league, so Godwin's locked-in role in that passing attack is more valuable to me than chasing a Mike Evans or Terry McLaurin ceiling, especially with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback in Washington.
Round 4
T.J. Hockenson rounds out the top-four tight ends that I want to make sure I draft before falling into the abyss at the position. He has an 86.8% snap share and 19% target share on a team that is trailing and throwing a lot. Gimme that.
Then we have our first red alarm major surprise of this draft with Mike Williams skyrocketing to the 38th pick. There were rumors in the offseason that the Chargers were going to make him their X receiver but so many of us had been burned by Big Mike in the past that we turned a blind eye, and we're regretting it. Williams leads the Chargers in air yards and has a 27% target share. He also has 30.8% of the team's red-zone targets, all of which are basically just in line with teammate Keenan Allen, yet Allen was going as a second-round pick. This offense is going to throw enough to support two receivers, especially since the tight ends are no longer as involved as they were before, so this Mike Williams production isn't going anywhere.
Pour one out for Allen Robinson. It's a testament to this dude's talent that he remains this high considering what is happening in Chicago. However, I believe in Justin Fields, so I will continue to bet on A-Rob. Mike Evans and Adam Thielen are consistent pieces in strong passing attacks who also have a red-zone role. We always said Thielen was too touchdown-dependent, but if he is going to keep scoring them, then we should keep paying for them.
The two other potential surprises here are how low I have Clyde Edwards-Helaire and how high Ja'Marr Chase has risen. I'm simply not a fan of CEH's role in the Kansas City offense. Yes, he has 75.4% of their running back touches and 62% of their rushes, but he only has six targets in three games. Patrick Mahomes simply doesn't check down that often, and if CEH isn't going to be involved in the passing game then his ceiling can only be so high. I'd rather take James Robinson, who may be on a worse offense but has 15 targets across three games to Carlos Hyde's two. If Jacksonville is going to be trailing, Robinson is going to continue to be heavily involved.
Chase is second on the Bengals with a 23% target share, but he leads the team in air yards with 264, which is over 120 more air yards than the next closest player. His 16.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) is second among any players with over 15 targets on the season. He has a consistent role in this offense and a consistent big-play role in this offense.
Round 5
A couple of surprise wide receivers also stand out in Round Five. Deebo Samuel is the clear WR1 in San Francisco. Even with Brandon Aiyuk factoring in more on Sunday night, Deebo still led the team with 10 targets. He's 4th in the NFL with a 33% target share and while much of that is propped up by his 52% target share in Week One, I think it's clear he's the WR to roster in this offense, which is why he basically swaps spots with where Aiyuk was going.
We also have Brandin Cooks jumping up into Round Five. I know people are going to point out that Davis Mills isn't good and Cooks' production isn't sustainable, but he's also 2nd in the NFL with a massive 37.6% target share and is the only option in Houston. Yes, that will lead to defenses trying to take him away, but it will also lead to him getting force-fed targets. I expect Houston to trail and throw a lot, which also means garbage time stats for Cooks, which count just a much as stats that are accumulated in the first quarter. Maybe I wouldn't watch the games, but I would still roster Cooks.
I'm also urging people not to give up on Robert Woods. Yes, Cooper Kupp has been on another level this year, but Woods is still on the field for 88% of the Rams' snaps is second on the team in air yards and second on the team with a 20% target share. If we expect Cooper Kupp to regress to the mean a bit, that means Woods would, naturally, pick up more targets in this dynamic passing game.
We round out the round with some unexciting but valuable running backs. As you can see, we've clearly entered the range of flawed backs where everybody is in a timeshare or has something working against them. I like that Javonye Williams is already getting 46.3% of Denver's running back touches despite being a rookie. He's splitting both the rushing share and receiving share with Melvin Gordon pretty evenly, which makes me more bullish on the younger player as the season goes on. Myles Gaskin has also handled 58.2% of the Dolphins overall running back touches and before you say, "That's not good," remember that Jonathan Taylor only has 60.2% of Indianapolis' touches and Zeke has 57.3% of Dallas' touches. Gaskin is 8th in the NFL among running backs with 16 targets, so his passing game involvement helps to assuage any workload concerns we had coming into the season.
Lastly, I don't love a hobbled Josh Jacobs, but I really like this Raiders offense and think Jacobs can be a factor when he returns from injury.
Round 6
If we had the Seahawks round before, I guess we have the Falcons round now. Mike Davis has been a disappointment to people who expect him to take full control of the Falcons' rushing attack; however, he still sees 55% of the running back touches in Atlanta, which is more than Nick Chubb gets. He has a 53.7% rush share and 17 targets in three games, so it's not as if he isn't a factor in the passing game either. He's yet to score a touchdown, while Cordarrelle Patterson has scored three, which is why the fantasy totals are a bit lopsided, but I expect that to even out as the season goes on. However, Patterson also needs to be taken seriously as a fantasy option. The Falcons lost their number two receiver and have used Patterson to fill some of that gap. He's fourth on the team with a 14% target share, while also handling 32.3% of the team's rushes. He's a high floor option in a PPR format that makes him good value at this point.
Davis leads a smattering of problematic running backs, who are ranked here based on usage. Chase Edmonds sees 56.6% of Arizona's running back touches, Melvin Gordon gets 50.5% of Denver's, and Jamaal Williams gets 44.1% of Detroit's. None of them are exciting, but they all have stable roles in an offense, which is super valuable. Edmons is also my favorite among them because the Arizona offense is far and away the best of the bunch and his 17 targets give him a solid floor in this format; however, Williams is being slept on. He has 28 carries and 13 targets through three games and isn't going anywhere. Dan Campbell is going to use both running backs and considering they are both used in the passing game, Williams will have reliable FLEX value in a PPR format. Considering Swift has also been battling myriad injuries, Williams has extra upside because his workload, if Swift were to go down, would be massive.
The other person I want to note here is Marquise Brown. His 28.4% target share is 7th in the NFL and comes with an impressive 14.5-yard aDOT. He has been a big-play threat all year and would have had three huge weeks if it wasn't for drops in Week Three. Drops are not a sticky stat and tend to fluctuate week-to-week, so I'm going to go back to the well with a homerun-hitter in an offense that has needed to throw more than it expected coming into the season.
Round 7
A few more quarterbacks start to go here, but there have been so many high-scoring surprise quarterbacks os far that I'd rather take the shots on guys like Rob Gronkowski, Tony Pollard, or Leonard Fournette, who are at positions with much less depth. With Gio Bernard possibly hurt and Ronald Jones doing nothing, Fournette has slightly more security than we expected earlier in the year.
I also don't know what to do with Ty'Son Williams. He looks good when he has the ball has such upside if he was given the role in Baltimore, but he handled just 33.3% of the running back touches in Week 3, and I'm really concerned that him and Latavius Murray and Devonta Freeman are just going to siphon carries and fantasy value from one another. I'll take him here because of the upside if he gets the role, but I don't love it.
I also think people are too low on Michael Pittman Jr. Yes, he was nowhere to be found in Week One, but I think we can write that off as an anomaly. He's currently tied for 12th in the NFL in target share with Stefon Diggs and saw over 33% of Indianapolis' targets in both Week Two and Week Three. He is the primary option in this passing game, and with their offensive line struggles, I expect the Colts to have to throw more than we would have expected coming into the season.
Side note: remember when we were drafting Laviska Shenault in the top 80 picks? And I say "we" because I did it in too many leagues. Woof.
Round 8
This tier of running backs is a special kind of confusing. Nyheim Hines is simply a passing-down back, except he's not and is taking more work from Jonathan Taylor, so we need to take note of him, in PPR formats especially. I have no clue how the San Fransisco rushing attack will shake out in the long run by Jeff Wilson isn't likely to return until November, so that gives either Elijah Mitchell or Trey Sermon a month to stake their claim to the role. Pick your back here. I guess my money is on Sermon, but I don't feel good about it. James Connor is the red-zone back in Arizona, which has value because it's such a strong offense.
Logan Thomas and Tyler Higbee are the last tight ends I would feel truly good about starting, so I need to take them before I get to the big-name quarterbacks that come later in this round.
Kenny Golladay has gotten back on the field and started to look healthy, which is good news since the Giants now have Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard hobbled. The Giants are going to need to throw a lot this year, so that gives Golladay value for the same reason Marvin Jones Jr. has value in Jacksonville. He has emerged as the lead receiver there with a 24.6% target share. He's 16th in the NFL in targets through three games and is on the field for 92% of the Jaguars' snaps, so I don't think his role is going anywhere.
We also need to end with Henry Ruggs III, who is a pure upside play here. Derrick Carr has thrown the second-most passes in the NFL, and they can't all go to Waller. Ruggs was a high draft pick last year and appears to have taken his game to another level. He is making solid catches all over the field and not just being used as a deep threat. He's third on the team with a 15% target share and leads the team with a 16.3-yards aDOT. Hunter Renfrow will remain involved as the Raiders' version of Cole Beasley, but Ruggs is the receiver I want for his game-breaking upside.
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