X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Andrus, Harang, and Dee Gordon: Real Deal or Impostors in Week 5?

A shortstop that is underperforming expectations, a pitcher that had no expectations, and a second sacker blowing his projections completely out of the water are on tap this week. Which shall we trust more: What we thought we knew heading into the season, or the data that the early season has given us? Without further ado . . .

 

Elvis Andrus, SS, TEX

A strong speed option at a weak position heading into the year, Andrus has infuriated his owners thus far with a .228 AVG and 3 SB (in four tries). His BABIP seems low for a speedster at .253, and he is actually walking slightly more (6.7% to 7.1%) and striking out less (14% to 12.5%) compared to his 2014 rates. So, regression to the mean will improve his overall line and make owners happy, right?

Maybe not, as there are issues underlying the above numbers. First, Andrus' O-Swing % does not support a higher walk rate or a lower K rate, as he is swinging at 26.3% of pitches outside of the strike zone compared to just 20.7% last year. He is actually hitting them too, posting an O-Contact % of 76.8%, up from 68% a year ago. He might be making contact, but these pitches are out of the zone for a reason - just because you can make contact with them does not mean you should. It is possible that the contact made is not of the quality necessary to produce hits at the MLB level, resulting in disappointing BABIP numbers that are driving down Andrus' entire season. At any rate, the uptick in plate discipline is surely a mirage.

Andrus' batted ball profile also suggests justification for a weak BABIP. After maintaining a career ground ball average of around 58%, Andrus is hitting only 51.7% of his balls onto the ground this year. This would be a positive development for many players, but Andrus has almost no power and many of his new flies (up 6.7%) are of the popup variety - his IFFB% has nearly doubled (8.3%) from a year ago (4.6%). Popups have similar offensive value to strikeouts, and Andrus' legs cannot help him with them.

According to career averages, Andrus' legs do not really help him on grounders either. Despite plus speed, Andrus has only a .242 career BABIP on groundballs, begging the question whether his current mark of .289 may actually be boosted by luck despite seeming plausible for a speedster. His .000 BABIP on flies is as bad as it can be, but his career .128 mark argues that correction will not be major. His .500 BABIP on line drives is poor compared to his career .664 mark, but the possibility that Andrus is making bad contact on pitches he should not be swinging at argues against a full rebound.

For whatever reason, Andrus is killing lefties this season, slashing .325/.372/.475 against them. This might make him a situational play based on matchups, but it sadly appears that Andrus' weak performance so far is the . . .

Verdict: Real Deal

 

Aaron Harang, SP, PHI

Remember him? Harang has posted a solid 3-2 record with a sparkling ERA of 2.35, a number supported by a FIP of 2.57. His K rate has been mediocre (6.81 K/9), but the walks are low as well (1.88 BB/9). Has he found the fountain of youth at age 37?

Not according to xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching), which stands at a high 3.94. The primary difference between FIP and xFIP is that the former assumes that there are three things a pitcher can control (K, BB, HR) while the latter plugs in a league average 10% HR/FB, normalizing one of the variables. Sometimes, such normalization is wrong: There are players that allow more or less HR than they should on a consistent basis. Harang is not one of them, and his current 2% HR/FB is ridiculously low for a flyball pitcher (45.4% of hits against him are in the air) pitching his home games in Philidelphia. Regression seems extremely likely. His current BABIP against of .255 also does not sync well with a 24.1% liner rate, while his current walk rate would be a career best at age 37. Altogether, Harang likely has a few disastrous outings in his near future.

Stuff wise, Harang is wanting. Using 2014 data to avoid small sample issues, Harang has only two barely above average offerings in his slider and curve, and is using both less frequently than he did in 2014. Unless you believe that Harang has more physical ability at age 37 than he did when he was younger, it is best to label him an . . .

Verdict: Impostor

 

Dee Gordon, 2B, MIA

Wow! Gordon is currently doing his best Ted Williams impersonation, batting .422 with 12 SB and 6 CS. His walks are up slightly (4.8% to 5.9%), but his strikeouts are way down (16.5% to 11.8%). Unfortunately, that is where the support for the second coming of Honus Wagner ends. Despite the better plate discipline numbers, Gordon is actually swinging at more pitches outside of the strike zone: his O-Swing % has risen from 32.9% last year to 39.7% this. His contact rate on such pitches is steady at 79%, and while it obviously has not hurt him the way it has Andrus it still calls into question the improved K and BB rates. His contact rate is up in the zone (92% to 95.1%), but the number was already so high that it should not explain why a questionable hitter entering the year has transformed into a Hall of Famer.

Gordon's insane performance is better explained by a BABIP of .474, a number unsustainable no matter how much speed the player has. Gordon's speed has allowed him to post a career .292 BABIP on worm killers, a figure nearly 60 points higher than league average. That number pales in comparison to his current .407 mark, however, meaning regression will sting despite the still strong destination. His current .200 BABIP on flies also figures to regress to his career .129 figure, while his current .783 BABIP on line drives easily dwarfs his .641 career mark. The liners may carry additional regression risk, as his liner rate is currently a sky high 25% against a career rate of 21.7%. Gordon has no history of such an elite line drive rate, so many of those liners should turn back into essentially useless flyballs. All of these factors will conspire to drag Gordon's BABIP back to mortal levels.

According to a new Fangraphs metric, Gordon rarely hits the ball particularly hard (18.4%) or softly (20.4%), earning a "medium" classification 61.2% of the time. This could well be the worst case scenario for Gordon, as hard hit balls are obviously beneficial while a slow roller is a sure hit with his speed. This stat is new and its predictive qualities are very much in question, but it does seem to add to the notion that Gordon is not anywhere near this good.

Finally, why does Gordon have only 12 SB? His success rate has been a poor 66% - requiring a 10% uptick merely to help his team - but even still he should have far more attempts based on how often he has been able to reach first. Speed was the one thing fantasy owners expected out of Gordon, and he has apparently not been as interested in running as he has been in the past. So far, the inflated average has made up for this deficiency, but a regressed BABIP will drive down his average and cut down his SB opportunities when his owners will need them most. All things considered, Gordon looks like fool's gold, or put another way . . .

Verdict: Impostor

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat

What Do You Think? 

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="700px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Francisco Alvarez28 mins ago

Out Six-To-Eight Weeks With Hand Fracture
Steven Stamkos2 hours ago

Nets Hat Trick On Saturday
Zach Hyman2 hours ago

Tallies Three Points In Victory
Dustin Wolf2 hours ago

Shuts The Door On Saturday
Valeri Nichushkin2 hours ago

Leads The Way On Saturday
Vitek Vanecek2 hours ago

Shines In Florida Debut
Roope Hintz2 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Jordan Montgomery3 hours ago

Stumbles In Spring Debut
Sean Reynolds3 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Ready For Opening Day
Chase Elliott3 hours ago

Is Chase Elliott Worth Rostering At Phoenix This Week For DFS?
Joey Logano3 hours ago

Will Be A Top Contender To Win At Phoenix
Bryan Hoeing3 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Ready For Opening Day
Emmanuel Rodriguez3 hours ago

Taking Live Batting Practice, Could Return Next Week
Zach Neto3 hours ago

Taking Part In Defensive Drills
Sandy Alcantara3 hours ago

Not Aware Of Innings Limit
Denny Hamlin3 hours ago

Is Difficult to Recommend As A DFS Option Outside Of Tournaments For Phoenix
Carson Hocevar4 hours ago

Is Not An Ideal Driver To Add To Phoenix DFS Lineups
Brad Keselowski4 hours ago

Is A Solid DFS Choice For Phoenix Lineups
Austin Cindric4 hours ago

Could Be Worth Using In Phoenix Tournament Lineups
Kyle Busch4 hours ago

Should Fantasy Players Roster Kyle Busch At Phoenix?
Michael McDowell4 hours ago

Is Michael McDowell Worth Rostering For Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Zach Ertz5 hours ago

Re-Signs With The Commanders
Ty Gibbs5 hours ago

Is A DFS Recommendation Despite Inconsistent Track History At Phoenix
Austin Dillon5 hours ago

Is Austin Dillon Worth Rostering In DFS For Phoenix This Week?
Cole Custer5 hours ago

Is An Underrated DFS Value Pick For Phoenix Lineups
Tyler Reddick5 hours ago

DFS Value Likely Hinges on How Much He Leads
Chase Briscoe5 hours ago

Despite Strong Phoenix Record, Chase Briscoe Qualified Inexplicably Poorly
NASCAR5 hours ago

Bubba Wallace's Phoenix Record Is Not Great, but Recent Improvement Makes Him a Solid DFS Option
John Hunter Nemechek5 hours ago

Is Only A Cash Game Play Consideration At Phoenix
Daniel Suarez5 hours ago

Seeks to Prove Himself at Phoenix After Embarrassing Austin Crash
Josh Berry5 hours ago

Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration, but Don't Be Surprised If He Runs Well
Erik Jones5 hours ago

Qualifies Well at Phoenix but Rarely Finishes Well
Noah Gragson5 hours ago

the Most Underrated DFS Option
Shane Van Gisbergen5 hours ago

Likely Too Inexperienced to Run Well at Phoenix
Ricky Stenhouse Jr5 hours ago

One of the Weakest DFS Options
LeBron James12 hours ago

Exits Saturday's Game Early With Groin Strain
Xavier Worthy15 hours ago

Authorities Not Charging Xavier Worthy
Kristaps Porzingis15 hours ago

To Miss Another Game
LeBron James15 hours ago

Suiting Up Versus Boston
Jrue Holiday15 hours ago

Returns On Saturday
Luka Dončić15 hours ago

Luka Doncic Available On Saturday
Baltimore Ravens15 hours ago

Ronnie Stanley Staying In Baltimore
Brandin Podziemski15 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Tobias Harris16 hours ago

Back On Saturday
Gary Trent Jr.16 hours ago

Unavailable On Saturday
Tommy Tremble16 hours ago

Carolina Re-Signs Tommy Tremble To Two-Year Deal
Albert Suárez16 hours ago

Albert Suarez, Cade Povich Competing For Open Rotation Spot
Andrew Wiggins16 hours ago

Returns On Saturday
Coby White16 hours ago

Ready To Go On Saturday
Lonzo Ball16 hours ago

To Miss Another Game
Max Lazar16 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Derek Carr16 hours ago

Saints Holding Onto Derek Carr At Full Price
Nikola Vučević16 hours ago

Nikola Vucevic Remains Out On Saturday
Jordan Poole16 hours ago

Returning On Saturday
Luarbert Arias16 hours ago

Optioned to Triple-A
Chris Boucher16 hours ago

Active On Saturday
Bennedict Mathurin16 hours ago

Returning On Saturday
Adam Mazur16 hours ago

To Begin Season With Triple-A
Deyvison De Los Santos16 hours ago

Sent To Triple-A
Tyrese Haliburton16 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Terance Mann17 hours ago

Ready To Go On Saturday
Caris LeVert17 hours ago

Available On Saturday
Trae Young17 hours ago

Cleared For Saturday
Jusuf Nurkić18 hours ago

Jusuf Nurkic Out On Saturday
Riley Adams18 hours ago

Scratched From Saturday's Game
Lance McCullers Jr.18 hours ago

Nearing Game Action
Detroit Lions18 hours ago

Marcus Davenport Re-Signs With Detroit
Chase Meidroth18 hours ago

Removed Early On Saturday
Jurickson Profar18 hours ago

To Undergo MRI
Mark Williams19 hours ago

Out Again On Saturday
Brandon Nimmo19 hours ago

Receives Gel Injection
Kirk Cousins19 hours ago

Falcons Don't Plan To Release Kirk Cousins
Buffalo Bills19 hours ago

Greg Rousseau Inks Extension With Buffalo
Marquise Brown19 hours ago

Back With Kansas City
Chris Paddack21 hours ago

Exits Early On Saturday
Chase DeLauter21 hours ago

Assigned To Minor-League Camp
Drew Thorpe21 hours ago

To Throw Live Batting Practice On Tuesday
Justin Topa21 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Tightness
Mike Gesicki23 hours ago

Bengals Re-Sign Mike Gesicki To Three-Year Deal
Jakub Dobes23 hours ago

Starts For Canadiens Saturday
Tommy DeVito23 hours ago

Giants Officially Re-Sign Tommy DeVito
Chris Kreider23 hours ago

Returns To Action Saturday
Russell Wilson23 hours ago

Giants Have Been In On Russell Wilson
Vitek Vanecek23 hours ago

Ready For Panthers Debut Saturday
Russell Wilson23 hours ago

Seahawks Won't Pursue Russell Wilson
Sam Darnold23 hours ago

Now An Obvious Target For Seattle
Sam Darnold24 hours ago

Not Expected To Re-Sign With Vikings
Jiri Kulich24 hours ago

Misses Saturday's Contest Due To Illness
Carson Soucy24 hours ago

Makes Rangers Debut Saturday
Cam York24 hours ago

Sits Out Saturday's Game
Daniel Jones1 day ago

Getting Interest From Vikings, Colts
Aaron Rodgers1 day ago

May Draw Interest From Vikings
Dallas Goedert1 day ago

Reportedly On The Trade Block
J.J. McCarthy1 day ago

Expected To Be Able To Practice In The Spring
Kevin Lankinen1 day ago

Stops 37 Shots On Friday
Xavier Worthy1 day ago

Arrested For Assault On Friday Night
Mark Stone1 day ago

Tallies Goal, Two Helpers In Victory
Spencer Knight1 day ago

Leads The Way On Friday
Aliaksei Protas1 day ago

Nets Two Goals On Friday
Nikolaj Ehlers1 day ago

Tallies Three Points On Friday
Brad Marchand1 day ago

Expected To Miss Two Weeks
Justin Fields2 days ago

Jets High On Justin Fields
Evander Kane2 days ago

Out For Remainder Of Regular Season
Brandon Tanev2 days ago

Rejoins Jets At Trade Deadline
Scott Laughton2 days ago

Lands In Toronto
Magomed Ankalaev2 days ago

Challenges For Light-Heavyweight Title At UFC 313
Alex Pereira2 days ago

Set For Fourth Title Defense
Rafael Fiziev2 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Justin Gaethje2 days ago

Set For A Rematch
Ignacio Bahamondes2 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Jalin Turner2 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Iasmin Lucindo2 days ago

Looks For Her Fifth Win In A Row
Amanda Lemos2 days ago

Looks To Return To Win Column At UFC 313
Mauricio Ruffy2 days ago

Returns To Action At UFC 313
King Green2 days ago

Opens Up UFC 313 Main Card
Sahith Theegala4 days ago

Looking To Keep Spark From Last Event Alive At Bay Hill
Robert MacIntyre4 days ago

An Interesting Play At Arnold Palmer Invitational
Max Homa4 days ago

Hoping His Course History At Bay Hill Can Help Turn Season Around
Tommy Fleetwood4 days ago

Looking To Get Back Into Good Graces At Bay Hill
Michael Kim4 days ago

One Of The Hottest Players In Golf Heading To Bay Hill
Xander Schauffele4 days ago

Making Long-Awaited Start Since Rib Injury At Bay Hill
Sepp Straka4 days ago

Needs Accuracy At Arnold Palmer Invitational
Collin Morikawa4 days ago

Looking For Better Form On And Around The Greens At Bay Hill
Justin Rose4 days ago

May Be Worth Avoiding This Week
Maverick McNealy4 days ago

Tries To Go One Step Further At Bay Hill
Shane Lowry4 days ago

Has Potential To Contend At Bay Hill
PGA4 days ago

Sungjae Im Trying To Snap Out Of Golfing Funk
Jacob Bridgeman4 days ago

Looking To Build Off Momentum At Arnold Palmer Invitational
Joe Highsmith4 days ago

Steps Up After Cognizant Classic Win
Max Greyserman4 days ago

Be Wary Of Max Greyserman At Bay Hill
Davis Thompson4 days ago

Very Iffy For Arnold Palmer Invitational
Tony Finau4 days ago

And Bay Hill Could Be A Battle
Cam Davis4 days ago

A Question Mark Heading To Arnold Palmer
Sam Burns4 days ago

Could Stick Around At Arnold Palmer
J.J. Spaun4 days ago

Could See Success At Bay Hill
PGA4 days ago

Byeong Hun An Seeks Answers And May Not Find Any
MMA6 days ago

Asu Almbayev Gets TKO'd At UFC Vegas 103
Manel Kape6 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC Vegas 103
Julian Marquez6 days ago

Loses Fourth Fight In A Row
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Luther Burden - College, NCAA, Draft, Prospects, CFB, Missouri

Best Fantasy Football Landing Spots for 2025 Rookie Wide Receivers: NFL Trades and Free Agency Impact

With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, the ramifications of where some of these players get selected will significantly impact their fantasy football value. In dynasty leagues, fantasy managers may not worry about landing spots as much because once you draft them in that kind of league, you have them for their entire career if you […]


Travis Hunter - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Prospects, NFL Rookies

2025 NFL Mock Draft: Best Case Scenario for All 32 Teams

Predicting the first round of the NFL Draft is a futile exercise. The “best” mock drafts have a hit rate lower than Anthony Richardson's completion percentage, which probably explains why so many are floating about. Here, we won’t be trying to predict the future of the 2025 NFL Draft. Instead, we will be doing an […]


Chuba Hubbard - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Biggest Fantasy Football Running Back Breakouts: Top RBs to Target in 2025 Drafts

The 2024 fantasy football season is in the rearview mirror. While last year is in the past, it’s important to look back at the biggest busts, surprises, and storylines. Learning from the past is an excellent way to improve as a fantasy football player. Unfortunately, multiple big-name running backs busted in 2024 because of injury. […]


Caleb Williams - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Superflex Fantasy Football QB Sleepers: Best Late-Round Quarterbacks to Target

It is never too early to start looking ahead to 2025 fantasy football drafts. Whether you are participating in best ball formats this early in the offseason or just curious how fantasy drafts will go next season, you have come to the right place. RotoBaller will have you covered all offseason to get you ready […]


Jeremiah Smith - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Fantasy Football Devy Rankings: Top 10 College Prospects and Future NFL Stars

This time of year, the conversation about college football players mainly revolves around the NFL Combine and the upcoming NFL Draft. Our focus in the spring tends to be on players who'll soon be making their NFL debuts. But there are still a lot of talented players who'll remain in college in 2025. Whether you […]


Chris Godwin - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injuries, DFS

Is Chris Godwin A Free Agent? Which Teams Would Be The Best Fit? Fantasy Football Outlook

The NFL offseason is underway. We have already seen a few players on the move. Geno Smith and Deebo Samuel Sr. will be playing for new teams in 2025. With NFL free agency beginning this week, there are sure to be more moves coming. One such player is Chris Godwin. He is slated to test […]


Tank Bigsby - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire

Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Targets: Sneaky Running Backs with Workhorse Potential (2025)

Volume is the primary driver of running back scoring in fantasy football. There are a handful of RBs who can be highly efficient and, thus, score plenty of fantasy points, like the Miami Dolphins' De'Von Achane in 2023. But the majority of elite RB scorers get a ton of touches. Thus, predicting the backs who […]


Cam Ward - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

NFL Rookie Mock Draft And Deep Dive: 2025 Post-NFL Combine Fantasy Football 12-Team, Superflex/Two-QB

Dynasty fantasy football truly never sleeps. Thanks to the most dedicated fantasy managers out there, sites like RotoBaller can exist, always bringing you the latest up-to-date news about basically everything sports related, or in my case, telling you exactly who you should and shouldn't draft. Every year, consensus rankings for both rookies and startups are […]


Aaron Jones - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Running Back Free Agency Preview: Fantasy Football Impact and Player Outlooks

After suffering a fall from grace in perceived value in the early 2020s, running backs received a resurgence in 2024 due to the play of Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Both players demonstrated that elite running back play can still carry your team very far. In Barkley's case, that included a Super Bowl title. Barkley […]


Mark Andrews - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

2025 Fantasy Football TE Best Ball Rankings: Tight End Player Outlooks and Draft Strategy

While redraft fantasy football leagues are the most popular, best ball is quickly catching up. Casual players have come to love playing in best ball leagues, giving them a chance to scratch the offseason fantasy football itch. Much will change between today and the start of the regular season in six months. However, now is […]


Joe Mixon - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Dynasty Fantasy Football Buys: Aging Running Backs to Trade For Before the 2025 Season

Dynasty fantasy football leagues have this tendency to get all about the youth. You feel this constant pressure to get younger and younger, to hoard draft picks and build a team full of the NFL's newest players. Sometimes that approach is antithetical to the whole idea of winning a fantasy league, especially when everyone is doing […]


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, TE, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football TE Rankings and 2025 Outlooks: Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta

The tight-end position is one of the trickiest to navigate, especially in dynasty fantasy football formats. It's small and top-heavy. Much of the scoring is volatile and influenced by touchdowns. The cream of the crop, however, can excel with or without touchdowns. A group of young tight ends, led by Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, and […]


Tank Bigsby - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire

Top 3 Fantasy Football Running Back Trade Targets: Dynasty Buys Low and Sell-High Candidates for 2025

The running back position is the most "revolving door" group in both the NFL and dynasty fantasy football. Their careers can often be meteoric, with massive seasons being followed by huge fall-offs. Sometimes, those backs fall off the face of the earth. This can leave fantasy managers going from believing they're set at the position […]