RADIO
In Week 7, we had a couple of close calls at the running back position when it came to injuries, such as Tony Pollard (head/neck) and David Montgomery (knee). I'll discuss both running backs a little later as I foreshadow their inclusions in this week's starts and sits.
Which backs can you trust, and which ones should simply fade away? These are the questions we will look to answer.
It's time, once again, to break down this week's RotoBaller starts and sits at the running back position for Week 8.
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Week 8 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Javonte Williams - Denver Broncos vs. Carolina Panthers
There is no way this pick will backfire on me this week, is there?
Williams had been frustrating fantasy managers much of the season until many, like me, sat him last week. Against the Saints, Williams averaged 6.3 yards per carry on his way to 88 yards rushing and a pair of touchdowns, propelling him to a top 8 fantasy finish.
Javonte Williams was benched by 49% of his fantasy managers this week.
He just scored his 2nd TD of the night 🤷pic.twitter.com/JWJkgJBqhL
— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) October 18, 2024
Also, it's worth noting that Williams may be returning to his pre-ACL injury form. In 2021, his avoided tackle rate was 25.6%. In 2023, it was 16.1%. In October, it has been 21.1%.
This week Williams will face a Carolina Panthers team who has earned the distinguished honor of "start 'em if you got 'em" regarding running backs this season. Carolina has already been torn up in the run game for 13 rushing scores in just seven games, along with 933 rushing yards courtesy of opposing running backs.
With a league-high 32.07 fantasy points against Carolina, it is a premier matchup for fantasy backs. Williams also has seen at least an 11.8% target or greater every game this season, even more reason to put him in those lineups this week.
Kenneth Walker III - Seattle Seahawks vs. Buffalo Bills
Ahead of Monday night, only Derrick Henry has averaged more fantasy points per game in PPR formats than Kenneth Walker III's 22.3 this season. Walker has posted no fewer than 14.6 fantasy points in any game and has recorded 20 or more in three of the last four games in which he has suited up.
When you score seven touchdowns in just five games, you earn must-start status and realistically should be considered along with Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, and Jahmyr Gibbs as the overall RB1 in dynasty formats.
This week's fantasy matchup is the Chef's kiss. Walker and the Seahawks host the Buffalo Bills, a team that has been reeling all season when it comes to defending the run game. Buffalo is allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position, and over the last four weeks, they have allowed more than 32 fantasy points per game.
Slick little pocket movement from Geno Smith before floating a perfect ball to Kenneth Walker on the wheel route pic.twitter.com/1pqgQOOWtD
— Mina Kimes (@minakimes) October 21, 2024
Dan Patrick would say, "You can't stop him; you can only hope to contain him," and I don't think this version of the Bills' defense will be capable of even doing that.
J.K. Dobbins - Los Angeles Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints
After watching Javonte Williams hit fantasy gold last week, I'm going to double down on the matchup against the Saints with J.K. Dobbins.
To Dobbins' credit, he has taken advantage of generous matchups and produced when expected. New Orleans is a dream matchup as of late, as they have allowed an average of 33.55 fantasy points per game to running backs over the last four weeks. Over those four weeks, the Saints have allowed 772 total yards and six touchdowns.
New Orleans has been better on the road, allowing 98.3 rushing yards per game as opposed to the 183 per game they allow at home, but with as many injuries they have suffered on the offensive side of the ball in recent weeks, it has added an ever-growing strain on this defense. Look for that to continue, as a positive game script has Dobbins poised for another top-12 fantasy week.
Week 8 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Tony Pollard - Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions
We knew that the Lions' run defense would take a bit of a hit when they lost Aiden Hutchinson, and we witnessed that in the form of Aaron Jones' 6.6 yards per carry average and his 116 total yards just a week ago.
Here's the thing: when the Lions get up in this game, the Titans will need to throw the ball, something they have struggled in doing so much of the 2024 season. Pollard's Week 7 may have gotten a little harder after he had to leave last week's contest with a head/neck injury, but really it was probably a back injury since he was carrying the entire offense. All 61 of Pollard's yards came after contact last week.
RB Weighted Opportunities Leaders
[Through the Week 7 Early Games]- A lot of big scores, but not many big workloads
- Pollard got the touches but didn't deliver
- Bijan Robinson back to his bellcow ways?
- Tank Bigsby smash in a positive game script pic.twitter.com/QDImUArDdJ
— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) October 20, 2024
With Mason Rudolph or Will Levis under center, the Lions will load the box and make Pollard have to earn everything, as no other threat has shown itself thus far this season. Pollard has been becoming a friend of this column. His workload last week included an 89% snap share, but even volume won't help him this week, as the Lions have allowed just 169 rushing yards over the last four weeks.
Rhamondre Stevenson - New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
It appears as though the Patriots may (pun intended) have something with Drake Maye under center. Last week, in London, Maye threw for a pair of touchdowns and 276 yards. For Rhamondre Stevenson managers, that's not even the worst part. Maye and Stevenson would finish that game with a team-high 18 rushing yards.
Jacksonville was a top-5 fantasy matchup for backs this season. Even after that game, they have been allowing 26.59 fantasy points per game, yet Stevenson managed just three in the Patriots' loss. In Week 8, Stevenson will see a Jets unit that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs over the last weeks, 16.78 per game.
Stevenson is not 100%. Since Week 2, his greatest snap share has been 56%. Last week, Stevenson received just a 50% snap share. Half of nothing is still nothing, and in what is looking like a difficult matchup on paper, fantasy managers should look at other options.
David Montgomery - Detroit Lions vs. Tennessee Titans
Last week, I mentioned benching David Montgomery against the Vikings. I also said bench Jahmyr Gibbs, so take that information as you wish. This week, I am saying sit Montgomery once again, as the Titans have the third stingiest fantasy defense against backs, allowing 15.03 fantasy points per game.
Tennessee has allowed 291 total yards to backs in the last four weeks. While Montgomery (knee) returned to the game last week, the Lions may exercise caution in what projects to be a positive game script, especially considering that the Lions have more offensive touchdowns over their last four contests (18) than incompletions (16).
David Montgomery -
Concern for PCL sprain. Has his left knee driven straight into the turf.
He’s back in the game, so either mild or could just be a patella bruise vs PCL. Curious how he produces rest of game. pic.twitter.com/SSfLopKINR
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) October 20, 2024
Montgomery will get his touches this week, which could resemble Week 6 when Craig Reynolds got in. Once again, Reynolds could be in line for some garbage-time touches… to start the second half.
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