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It's hard to believe that we are already entering Week 7 of the NFL calendar. Before Monday Night Football, Sean Tucker, Tyrone Tracy Jr., and Tyler Allgeier were among the top 10 running backs for the week, proving that anything can truly happen on any given Sunday.
In each of the past two weeks, fantasy managers have needed to fill roster holes thanks to four teams heading into their bye weeks. This week, only the Chicago Bears and the Dallas Cowboys have the week off, which means you are only looking for a substitute for D'Andre Swift.
With that out of the way, it is time to break down this week's RotoBaller starts and sits at the running back position for Week 7.
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Week 7 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, Washington Commanders vs. Carolina Panthers
If Brian Robinson Jr. plays this week, he starts. After being on the injury report all last week, Robinson was officially ruled out late in the process. It was evident that the Commanders certainly missed his presence on the field, especially in those short-yardage moments.
However, Robinson's return this week is not guaranteed, but if I were him, I would do whatever it took to get myself back into the lineup to face one of fantasy football's friendliest defenses against the running back position in the Carolina Panthers.
Carolina has allowed 33.87 (second most) fantasy points per game and more rushing yards to backs (803 yards) than any other team. Those numbers have to have Robinson excited, but what has the Commanders backs salivating is the 13 total touchdowns (12 rushing) that the Panthers have conceded.
Robinson has been a unit all season, averaging 4.45 yards per carry, with 204 of his 325 rushing yards coming after contact. If Robinson plays, he will be a top-12 back this week. Even Austin Ekeler can be trusted in this premium matchup.
Tony Pollard - RB, Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
Speaking of great matchups. If there is one defense that has been reaching for the Panthers' crown as the most generous in fantasy, it's the Buffalo Bills, especially in the passing game.
Last week, Pollard had -5 receiving yards against the Colts, but because of PPR formats, he was still good enough to register 2.5 fantasy points and a 60% route participation rate. Pollard's main contribution was on the ground, where he averaged 5.5 yards per carry on his way to 93 yards on the ground and a touchdown.
Pollard looks healthier now than he did at any point during the 2023 season. Remember that he did finish that campaign strongly before joining the Titans in the offseason.
Tony Pollard is looking like one of the best value picks from this years fantasy drafts pic.twitter.com/OztdGvTSHf
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 13, 2024
Managers should expect to see plenty of him this week as backfield partner Tyjae Spears is expected to miss this one with a hamstring injury that he suffered in that contest with the Colts.
After Spears left that game, Pollard assumed a 90% snap share and 85% of the carries out of the backfield, with Julius Chestnut playing three of 29 snaps. With an increased workload in an adventurous matchup, Pollard will look for his fifth game in the last six contests to produce 15 or more fantasy points.
In the last three contests, he has also seen at least an 11% target share, where he is most likely to do his damage this week.
Kyren Williams - RB, Los Angeles Rams vs. Las Vegas Raiders
I just watched Najee Harris run for 106 yards and a touchdown last week against this Raiders defense. Harris would finish with 122 total yards and an average of 7.6 yards per carry against a defense without Christian Wilkins anchoring the interior. Harris's previous high for rushing yards was 70, back in Week 1.
Las Vegas has struggled in recent weeks, allowing nearly 27 fantasy points per game to the position, and allowing 380 rushing yards and 180 receiving yards to oppositional backs. Kyren Williams is a true dual-threat, recording 360 rushing yards, 71 receiving yards, and seven total touchdowns in just five games.
Williams gets the ball when the Rams are down in the red zone. So far, Williams has recorded all six of his rushing touchdowns down there, thanks to his 27 rushing attempts inside the 20.
Math is pretty easy: Williams has scored a rushing touchdown in eight straight contests and will make it nine this week against a Raiders team that has allowed four rushing scores already.
Make that 8 straight games with a rushing TD for Kyren Williams 💪
📺: #GBvsLAR on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/hLfA5mD4oV— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024
D'Ernest Johnson - RB, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots (London)
The sneaky play of the week is D'Ernest Johnson of the Jacksonville Jaguars as they face the Patriots in London. New England is allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs this season (27.03), and Johnson is filling that Travis Etienne Jr. role for the Jaguars, not Tank Bigsby.
Etienne is officially week-to-week after suffering a hamstring injury, one that usually sidelines backs for at least two weeks. It's hard to ignore that Johnson received a 56% carry share to Bigsby's 44%, meaning they split the opportunities on the ground, but Johnson received Etienne's additional work in the passing game.
Jaguars' RB usage yesterday:
D'Ernest Johnson: 34 snaps (27 pass), 6 carries, 2 targets
Tank Bigsby: 16 snaps (8 pass), 7 carries, 0 targets
Travis Etienne: 11 snaps (8 pass), 3 carries, 1 target
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) October 14, 2024
With the expectation of a positive game script against the Patriots this week, Bigsby is probably the better start. When looking at yards after contact per attempt leaders through six games, Bigsby and his 5.24 lead the way among running backs.
If nothing else, Johnson should be a priority waiver-wire add, as he should have a significant role for as long as Etienne is out.
Week 7 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Aaron Jones or Ty Chandler - RB, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
Let's see if the decision is taken out of our hands again this week. As of right now, I expect Aaron Jones to miss this week's pivotal NFC North showdown due to that hip injury suffered back in Week 5. That said, Jones was out on the practice field during Monday's practice.
Whether Jones plays or Ty Chandler is the lead back this Sunday, that matchup against the Lions defense is no easy task. Detroit has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points this season to the position, allowing just 16.54 per game.
More DVOA:
Vikings:
- #18 offense
- Pass: 7th, Run: 20th- #1 defense
- Pass: 1st, Run: 1st- #9 ST
Lions:
- #3 offense
-- Pass: 12th, Run: 2nd- #4 defense!!
-- Pass: 5th, Run: 10th- #8 ST
— Jeremy Reisman (@DetroitOnLion) October 14, 2024
It is worth noting that the Lions defensive front took a major hit this past Sunday. Aidan Hutchinson's season came to an end after his leg swung into a teammate during a tackle, resulting in a tibia/fibula fracture.
Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery - RB, Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
As tough as the Lions defense has been against the running back position, the Vikings have been even stingier. Minnesota has allowed 15.58 fantasy points per game, which is the second-fewest. It has also allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards and is one of five teams to only allow one rushing score by the position thus far.
When you have backs that typically share the load and somewhat take production off one another's fantasy stat line, difficult matchups like this one are when managers must fade if they have suitable options available.
Week 7 already feels like a good old-fashioned NFC North slugfest. Minnesota and Detroit lead the NFL in point differential, meaning we should anticipate a close game. The situation should lead to more David Montgomery in a closely contested game.
Then again, running backs have had some success in the passing game against Minnesota. Backs against Minnesota have been targeted 35 times this season, resulting in 23 receptions and 144 receiving yards.
Jordan Mason - RB, San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
No defense in the NFL has produced more futility this season among the running back position than the Kansas City Chiefs. Coming out of their bye, they had allowed just 12.45 fantasy points per game to the position. The next closest team, the Minnesota Vikings, has been allowing 16.13 per contest.
How are they getting it down on the defensive side? For starters, they have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to the position, allowing just 214 yards on the ground.
The Chiefs have also only allowed 104 receiving yards to backs, the ninth-fewest. If 318 total yards surrendered in five weeks wasn't good enough, they have allowed just one running back to score, Derrick Henry, back in Week 1.
Jordan Mason was seen at practice on Monday, participating in a noncontact blue jersey after suffering an AC joint sprain early in that Thursday Night Football victory over the Seahawks.
San Francisco is hopeful that with the additional days to recover, Mason will be able to suit up against the reigning Super Bowl champions. If he does, one would expect his touches to be limited.
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