RADIO
Welcome back to another edition of Rotoballers' Start ‘em and Sit ‘em. Let's review some critical fantasy matchups across the league each week and break down some of my favorite starts and sits.
As we enter week 5 of the NFL season, so do the bye weeks. That means fantasy managers will need to find replacements for David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, J.K. Dobbins, Saquon Barkley, and Tony Pollard as the Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Tennessee Titans all have their byes this week.
You heard the names, so let's get to those week 5 starts and sits at the running back position.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Week 5 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
D'Andre Swift - RB, Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers
Did we finally get that D’Andre Swift breakout game, or are we chasing the points this week? Only time and the Carolina Panthers will tell.
Last week, Swift had his best game to date with the Bears. As fantasy managers contemplated throwing the Bears back on the waiver wire, he totally redeemed himself. In a matchup against the Rams, who are the sixth most favorable matchup for opposing backs in fantasy, Swift ran for 93 yards on 16 attempts and a score. He also had seven receptions for 72 yards.
.@DAndreSwift breaks free for a 36 yd TD!
📺: #LARvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/GneMI2LP2i
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) September 29, 2024
If not for Derrick Henry’s 200-yard performance against the Bills, Swift would have been your top fantasy back last week. This week, the matchup is even better, as the Bears host a Carolina Panthers team that has allowed the second most fantasy points this season and 28.6 per game.
With the Bear's weapons on offense, it’s unlikely he sees a 32% target share again this week, but running 62% of the routes and seeing a 67% snap share along with 62% of the attempts is promising.
Chuba Hubbard - RB, Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Let’s stick with this Panthers/Bears matchup, shall we?
As bad as the Panthers have been at defending the run, the Chicago Bears haven’t been much better. In fact, they are allowing just over 22 fantasy points per game to the position, making themselves a top-10 matchup in fantasy.
Since Andy Dalton took over under center, Chuba Hubbard has totaled 218 yards rushing, 77 receiving yards, and a pair of scores. Dalton has this offense playing at another level and producing. Hubbard looks like a back who has zero intentions of handing the position over to Jonathon Brooks anytime soon.
We want workhorse backs in fantasy, and over the last two contests, Hubbard has accounted for 75% of all Carolina’s rushing attempts. Hubbard's newfound production comes after starting the season, seeing just 49% of said touches out of the backfield. That's why he produced 22-plus fantasy points in back-to-back weeks.
Chuba Hubbard in two games with Andy Dalton:
25 fantasy points per game
66% snaps
68% attempts
46% routes
12% targets
5.6 yards per carryWill be very interesting to see how the Panthers handle Jonathon Brooks. Offense is suddenly viable but Hubbard might not go away easily.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) September 29, 2024
Josh Jacobs - RB, Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams
I’m starting to think I may have a serious love-hate relationship with Josh Jacobs at this point. I may be a scorned lover, and perhaps my Raiders fandom is showing up a little here, but Jacobs looks like a matchup-based starter for fantasy.
Let’s look at those numbers and make sure I am not some crazy ex. Jacobs is an RB3 on a points-per-game basis. With 10.8 fantasy points per game, he trails Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and Hubbard, to name a few.
Jacobs is coming off back-to-back weeks in which he failed to rush for more than 55 yards after running a rough shot on the Colts in week 2 for 151 yards on the ground. Maybe more alarming for fantasy managers, Emanuel Wilson is becoming a real problem, accounting for 41% of snaps and 36% of the attempts over the last two weeks.
Good news that may not matter this week, as he faces a Rams defense that has allowed an average of 24.1 fantasy points per game to the position, which is the sixth most in the league after allowing Brian Robinson Jr. and Jeremy McNichols to combine for 179 yards on the ground and three touchdowns.
A few other backs with great matchups this week include Henry and Justice Hill against the Cincinnati Bengals, Joe Mixon as the Texans host the Buffalo Bills, and Jordan Mason as the 49ers welcome the Arizona Cardinals to San Francisco.
Week 5 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
Brian Robinson Jr. - RB, Washington Commanders vs. Cleveland Browns
I am still trying to determine whether this Browns defense is one to avoid or if their numbers look impressive due to poor competition.
In week 1, Ezekiel Elliott had just 40 yards rushing, but he did manage to find the end zone. Then, in week 2, they held Travis Etienne to just 52 yards on the ground, but he, too, found his way to paydirt. Week 3, you guessed it, was another strong performance against Singletary, holding him to 65 yards, but he scored. At least Zamir White failed to score last week.
There are some better matchups available this week, and I think you can afford to sit Robinson against a Browns defense that, despite the touchdowns, has allowed the ninth fewest fantasy points thus far.
My prediction for Robinson is 67 yards rushing and a touchdown. That's respectable as long as Jeremy McNichols doesn’t play the hero once again.
Rachaad White - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
It’s not like Rachaad White was terrible last week. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry while hauling in a couple of passes against the Philadelphia Eagles last week. The problem is he had 10 carries for 49 yards, while Bucky Irving also had 10 carries for 49 yards and a touchdown.
Tampa Bay's backfield is as divided as they come. Not only were the carries even, but Irving saw just one fewer target than White, whose value is supposed to come in the form of his pass-catching ability.
This week, the Buccaneers take on the Atlanta Falcon, who rank inside the top five in terms of fantasy points surrendered to running backs, allowing 14.2 per contest. I’m not great at math, but that would appear to be a 7.1 fantasy performance from White this week, which simply won’t cut it.
Breece Hall- RB, New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (London)
There is no way you are sitting Breece Hall this week, especially with four teams on a bye, is there?
When it comes to these international games, I try my best to avoid them if I can. It’s bad enough that West Coast teams historically struggle when traveling to the East Coast, but when NFL teams are asked to cross the pond, it hasn’t necessarily been a showcase of our best.
I expect both offenses to look slow out of the gate, especially facing two of the top defenses in the NFL when it comes to limiting fantasy production for opposing backs. Breece Hall faces a Vikings defensive unit that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points this season to the position, just 13.6 per contest.
Through four weeks, Brian Flores' #Vikings defense leads the NFL in:
• Sacks (17)
• QB Hits (17)
• Pressures (50)
• Interceptions (8, tied with Green Bay)
• Tackles for loss (26, tied with Broncos and Bills)
• Pass deflections (32!)— Nick Olson (@NickOlsonNFL) September 30, 2024
Typically, Hall can easily handle this matchup, but I also watched as the Broncos held Hall to four yards on 10 carries a week ago. With a team that likes to blitz, like the Vikings, Hall can factor in the passing game as long as he can haul in more than the two passes for 14 yards from last week's box score.
One other matchup in which you should temper expectations this week comes on Monday Night Football as the Kansas City Chiefs, and that second-ranked defense against fantasy backs hosts Alvin Kamara and the Saints.
I’m not sure which fantasy defense against Kamara is better: the Kansas City Chiefs or Taysom Hill.
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