RADIO
Now that the Byepocalypse is behind us, it's time to grab those stretchy pants, you know the ones, and grab ourselves an extra helping of football this weekend. We have three games on the docket on Thanksgiving Day that will give fantasy managers a case of the meat sweats. We have the Raiders and Chiefs on Black Friday. There are 11 games on Sunday, with the Bills hosting the 49ers on Sunday Night Football, and we close out Week 13 with the Cranberry Bowl between the Broncos and Browns.
If you spent time on the RotoBaller Discord Channel, you were already ahead of the competition. Hopefully, you slid Ameer Abdullah into your fantasy lineup while sending Rhamondre Stevenson and Najee Harris to the bench. You also know that running backs matter. Las Vegas, New York, and Tennessee all let their alpha dogs walk this offseason and have now combined for a 7-26 record.
It's time to separate those Week 13 fantasy must-starts from those Week 13 fantasy turkeys with this week's RotoBaller starts and sits at the running back position.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Week 13 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms
Kyren Williams - RB, Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Kyren Williams has averaged more than four yards per carry in six of his last eight contests after failing to reach that mark from Weeks 1 through 3. Williams has also reached double-digit fantasy production in all but one contest this season. Yet, many still need to determine how he stacks up against the elite fantasy options at the position.
When you have the love of a coach, nothing else matters. Williams has fumbled five times in the past seven contests, including twice last week, and still out-touched Blake Corum 16 to one. Let's face it: this is Williams' backfield, for better or worse. Ball security is just a couple of words when you have job security. All kidding aside, if Williams can hold onto the ball this week, he will be in line for a highly productive afternoon.
Throughout the 2024-25 campaign, the New Orleans Saints have allowed 25.10 fantasy points per game to the running back position. The 12 rushing touchdowns are the fourth-most, while the 1,198 rushing yards surrendered are the ninth-most.
Bucky Irving - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Hello, Bucky Irving. Irving came to play in Week 12, picking up over 150 yards from scrimmage. Irving has become one of the better all-around backs this season and arguably the most elusive. On Sunday, Irving finished with a 59% route participation and caught all six targets for 64 yards. Irving also had 18 total touches, in which he forced nine missed tackles. It's not often we see 7.3 yards per carry accompanied by 7.3 yards after contact per attempt. That's special.
Bucky Irving entered the week nearly doubling up the field of regular running backs in juke rate this year per @FTNFantasy.
That's why they -- ok, maybe just I -- call him "Dr. J". pic.twitter.com/t1D77quoPj
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) November 25, 2024
Irving is likely to see that route participation grow. On those six receptions, he forced five missed tackles and is now fifth among backs this season in yards per route run. This is starting to feel like one of those "Why is Uncle Larry even here?" moments, except Uncle Larry is Rachaad White.
Heading into Week 13, Irving is fourth in yards per carry (5.4), seventh in first down/touchdown efficiency (25.9%), fifth in EPA/Rush (0.07), and first in yards after contact per attempt (4.19).
If I were the Carolina Panthers, I would be waving the white flag. Something tells me that the league-high 29.28 fantasy points per game allowed will continue to grow after this one.
James Cook - RB, Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers
This isn't a 49ers defense to be feared. Last week, Josh Jacobs tore through this defense like my son tears through mashed potatoes. Jacobs ended up with 106 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns, averaging 4.1 yards per game in a Nick Bosa-less defensive front.
Back in Week 11, Kenneth Walker III would finish with 13 fantasy points thanks to a touchdown, and in Week 10, both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving posted 17 fantasy points apiece, thanks to their touchdowns.
You must return to Week 5 to find a game where a running back failed to hit paydirt against the 49ers. In that Week 5 contest, James Conner came up short. However, he still managed 100 yards on 21 opportunities, churning out 13 fantasy points on the day. The 23.97 fantasy points per game allowed and the 14 total touchdowns the 49ers have surrendered this season bode well for James Cook and fantasy managers.
Bonus
Here are some running backs with favorable fantasy playoff schedules (Week 15 through Week 17)
Bucky Irving (Los Angeles Chargers, Dallas, Carolina)
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (Baltimore, Indianapolis, Atlanta)
Breece Hall (Jacksonville, Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo)
J.K. Dobbins (Tampa Bay, Denver, New England)
James Conner (New England, Carolina, Los Angeles Rams)
Week 13 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts
James Conner - RB, Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
One of the tougher fantasy matchups this season for running backs has been the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings have allowed 16.97 fantasy points per game, the third-fewest due to allowing just 685 rushing yards and four rushing scores to backs through 11 contests.
Last week, the Bears were able to attack the Vikings through the air as D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen each caught a touchdown pass, combining for 192 yards. That success was not displayed in the run game, as D'Andre Swift finished with 30 yards on 13 attempts for a putrid 2.3 yards per attempt.
It's hard to bet against James Conner because he is one of the rare workhorse backs available, one who can also contribute to the passing game when called upon. The concern here is that it's hard to trust the Cardinals' offense. I trust them as much as I trust deviled eggs. I love them, but sometimes they don't love me back.
Najee Harris - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Looking at the Week 12 snap shares, it's pretty difficult to glaze over the Steelers' backfield snap share split. Against the Browns, Najee Harris accounted for a 39% snap share versus a 57% snap share courtesy of Jaylen Warren. While Harris still led the duo in opportunities 18 to 14, Warren was more productive, averaging 4.1 yards per carry compared to Harris' 2.6 yards per attempt.
Notable backfield snap share splits from Week 12:
Ameer Abdullah📈
Nick Chubb📈
Jaylen Warren📈
Bucky Irving📈
Tyrone Tracy📉
Jonathon Brooks📉
Dylan Laube📉 pic.twitter.com/grNdI9X5Kk— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) November 25, 2024
If we are to expect this backfield to be split moving forward, it's hard to project Harris as much more than a flex play, especially when facing a Bengals unit that allows 20.02 fantasy points per contest, the seventh-fewest. Cincinnati is allowing just 108.3 total yards per game to backs. If you split that up evenly between the Steelers' backfield, you are left with 54.2 total yards apiece.
Harris has been a solid back throughout his career. Currently, Harris is 251 rushing away from 1,000 yards, which would be his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season to start his career. I'm starting to get Eddie George-type vibes when talking about Harris, a solid back who can produce with volume. However, in George's final five seasons, the Titans back never averaged more than 3.7 yards per carry. Harris is currently at 3.9 yards per attempt in his fourth year.
D'Andre Swift - RB, Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
Remember when you were 12 years old, sitting at the kiddie table for Thanksgiving, thinking next year will be the year I get to the grown-up table? Then you turn 13 and are still at the kiddie table; that's how I imagine D'Andre Swift feels right now. Last week, against the Vikings, Swift was held to 2.3 yards per carry. Thinking Week 13 will be better, think again. Only the Kansas City Chiefs allow fewer fantasy points to backs this season than the Detroit Lions.
Detroit has allowed just seven total touchdowns to backs and has allowed an average of 92.4 scrimmage yards per game to the position, making it hard to trust Swift this week considering the matchup. That may not even be the worst part of it all. Since Thomas Brown took over play-calling, we have seen more and more involvement from Roschon Johnson. Last week, Swift had a 55% snap share, but Johnson saw a 38% snap share from the backfield, which has been trajecting upwardly in recent weeks.
I need touchdowns in fantasy football, and Johnson has to feel like Jalen Hurts all over again for Swift. Again, Johnson punched it in from the one-yard line last week, marking his eighth carry inside the five this season. Johnson has scored on six of those eight touches.
The Bears have given Roschon Johnson eight carries inside the five-yard line this season:
TD
TD
TD
TD
Stuffed --> next play: TD
Stuffed --> next play: TD— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 24, 2024
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