RB Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks for Week 11 (2024)

As the weather begins to change, the importance of running backs on your fantasy roster becomes clearer. In Week 10, 20 running backs posted double-digit fantasy production. Considering we had four teams on bye last week, it's even more impressive.

Once again, as we enter Week 11, fantasy managers face replacing some productive backs as the Cardinals, Giants, Buccaneers, and Panthers all head into their bye week. Between those four teams, fantasy managers have to seek replacements for five backs, each of whom had 15 or more fantasy points last week.

If you had James Conner, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Chuba Hubbard, or the Buccaneers duo of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White, I am here to help you replace those fantasy points with this week's RotoBaller Week 11 starts and sits.

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Week 11 Starts - Fantasy Football Booms

Jonathan Taylor - RB, Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets

Remember when the Jets' run defense scared fantasy managers? I don't either. There was a time, but it seems so distant now. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor may have missed three contests this season, but in his games, he has averaged 16.3 fantasy points per game and failed to reach double-digits just once. 

On Sunday, Taylor had three rushes of more than 10 yards, the second-highest total among the running back position, trailing only Chuba Hubbard. Despite that explosive playmaking ability and 107 rushing yards in the first half, the Colts abandoned the run game completely in the second half. 

Since entering the league in 2020, only Derrick Henry has had more explosive runs than Taylor's 60. His explosive run rate of 5.8% is tied for the seventh-highest. Football isn't that hard; just give Taylor the ball and enjoy. 

Jonathan Taylor gets LOOSE for 59 yards 💨pic.twitter.com/1bwF22SB34

— Colts Nation (@ColtsNationCP) November 10, 2024

Coach Shane Steichen has already committed to Joe Flacco over Anthony Richardson, so if he plans to keep his job beyond this week, abandoning the run game against a Jets defense that has allowed 1,067 rushing yards and 342 receiving yards to backs this season may not be a good idea. Over the last four weeks, the Jets have allowed 460 rushing yards and four scores, which has led to the seventh-most fantasy points to the position.

Kareem Hunt - RB, Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Since coming off the couch, all Kareem Hunt has done is produce 565 total yards in six contests. In those six contests, Hunt has hit paydirt on five occasions. Since Week 5, Hunt has been the RB8 in fantasy (PPR), scoring 90 fantasy points, averaging 18 fantasy points per game, and producing 13 or more fantasy points in each of his five games over that period.

Hunt has been efficient, especially in the red zone, where he has produced 44.9 fantasy points, which is right there with Alvin Kamara, who has secured 46.9 of his fantasy points this season. This season, the Bills have been the second-friendliest fantasy defense for running backs, allowing 29.32 fantasy points per game and conceding 1,007 rushing yards, 545 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns.

The Chiefs offense runs through Hunt. Building on last week's 28.3 weighted opportunity rate and a season-high 25% target share while adding an inferior opponent into the equation, this has the makings of being Hunt's best game this season. 

RB Weighted Opportunities leaders
[Through the early window]

Not many new faces or surprises this week.

The Kareem Hunt workload is otherworldly. pic.twitter.com/c8TfAK321J

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) November 10, 2024

David Montgomery - RB, Detroit Lions vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Few things in fantasy football are as predictive as David Montgomery and finding the end zone. The Iowa State product did so again on Sunday Night Football, marking his 23rd touchdown in his last 26 games (playoffs included). Montgomery is no Christian McCaffrey, but in McCaffrey's previous 28 contests, he only has 20 rushing touchdowns; I'm just saying.

Week Ten

David Montgomery Rushing TD (8) pic.twitter.com/h7FY812MBD

— NFL TD Videos (@NFLTDVids) November 11, 2024

Montgomery has an explosive run rate of 4.1% this season with 17.1% of his yardage coming on those explosive runs. The 22 missed tackles forced are the 12th most among running backs this season (0.18 missed tackles forced/attempt), with 60% of his rushing yards coming after contact. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars may be one of the worst teams in the league regarding tackling, which is excellent news for both Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs' managers. Heading into Week 11, the Jaguars are allowing 143 total yards per game, have allowed 12 total touchdowns, and an average of 27.11 fantasy points per game. Over the last four weeks, they have allowed 435 rushing yards, 1,56 receiving yards, and six total touchdowns.

Week 11 Sits - Fantasy Football Busts

James Cook - RB,  Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I just mentioned some of my favorite matchups this week. Now, it's time to turn our attention to some less-than-favorable ones, starting with James Cook, who is set to face the Kansas City Chiefs.

There is an excellent chance you are not sitting Cook this week, as Cook has been a top-10 fantasy back this season and has produced double-digits in fantasy in eight of the nine games he has partaken in this season. However, Kansas City has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs over the last four weeks, and throughout the season, no team has allowed fewer than the 14.01 fantasy points per game that the Chiefs have.

Kansas City has also allowed just three rushing scores, 473 rushing yards, and 248 receiving yards to backs this season. With a problematic matchup at hand, Cook is similar to a low-end RB2 or flex option, but it comes with some substantial risk.

Chase Brown - RB, Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers

As good as the Chiefs defense has been, the Chargers' defensive unit isn't too far behind. Los Angeles has allowed 16.94 fantasy points per game, which is the third-fewest. They have also allowed 733 rushing yards, the eighth-fewest, along with 262 receiving yards. However, their claim to fame after 10 weeks… just two total touchdowns yielded to a back—one on the ground and one in the passing game. 

Last week, the Chargers held Tony Pollard to 44 yards on just nine carries. Considering the Bengals can't defend the pass, Los Angeles may decide to throw more than usual, potentially forcing the Bengals to abandon the run themselves and turning this contest into a shootout.

One area of concern for the Bengals is that Brown has fumbled twice in the last five games. They added Khalil Herbert as Zack Moss went on the IR, and now they are working out Leonard Fournette. It may mean something; it might not.

J.K. Dobbins - RB, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Like the Chiefs and the Chargers, the Bengals have been particularly stingy in fantasy on opposing backfields. Last week, even Derrick Henry had a modest 68 yards rushing on 16 attempts. He did score, but that's to be expected when talking about "The King."

Since the Gus Edwards injury, J.K. Dobbins has seen a significant portion of the weighted opportunities out of the Chargers backfield. As far back as Week 3, that share had never dipped below 70%. However, last week, with the Gus Bus fueled up again, Dobbins' weighted opportunity share dipped to 56.5%.

J.K. Dobbins' share of backfield weighted opportunities, by week:
[@FantasyPtsData]

W1: 53.9%
W2: 46.7%
W3: 90.0%
W4: 79.2%

*Gus Edwards injury*

W6: 74.1%
W7: 70.1%
W8: 77.9%
W9: 84.1%

*Gus Edwards returns*

W10: 56.5%

This is so sad, chat.

— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) November 11, 2024

Dobbins registered 18 opportunities (carries and targets) compared to the 10 Edwards saw, but it looks like we may see a more even split in this backfield than we would like. Against the Bengals, a defense that has allowed just 19.85 fantasy points per game to backs this season, a split backfield doesn't serve either back well in fantasy.

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